2011 Still Can Not Escape A "Rise" &Nbsp; The Two Quarter CPI May Be High.

January 2011

Vegetable basket

Vegetable prices remain high after the holidays.

"It's too expensive to buy."

For more than half an hour in the small vegetable market at home, Aunt Zhang's hands are still empty, 4 yuan a kilogram of celery, 3.5 yuan a kilogram of spinach, 5 yuan a catty of pepper, and even vegetables 2 yuan a Jin.

Finally, she had to buy a pound of green vegetables and a packet of baby vegetables in the "street vendor".

In the vicinity of the large market, "sister-in-law" are crowded together to buy "one yuan dish", green vegetables, oil and wheat, cabbage and other four or five varieties of green leafy vegetables are priced at 1 yuan per Jin, but to come and go every day are these varieties.

According to the statistics of the Shanghai Bureau of statistics, as the city's temperature continues to remain around the freezing point since mid January, and the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the consumption desire of the residents is increasing, and the price of local fresh vegetables before the Spring Festival has risen fully.

Compared with the middle ten days of January, there were 26 kinds of prices of 27 kinds of fresh vegetables monitored, and only 1 of them were fair.

Leafy vegetable prices rose nearly 10% to 9.2%, while other dishes rose by 15.2%.

Among them, sweet pepper, winter bamboo shoots, soybeans, beans, cowpeas and cucumbers increased by more than 20%.

At 9 o'clock yesterday morning, reporters came to Jingan District Wuding vegetable market, the popularity of the market in general.

Reporters at a number of vegetable stalls to see, in addition to some varieties fell slightly, most vegetables prices remain high.

Tomatoes 4 yuan / Jin, celery 4.5 yuan / Jin, potatoes 2.5 yuan / Jin, green vegetables 2 yuan / Jin, winter bamboo shoots 11 yuan / Jin......

"The price of vegetables has changed little before and after the Spring Festival this year."

Stall owner Lao Qin said that the price of vegetables was different from that of the Spring Festival after last Spring Festival.

"Wholesale prices have risen during the Spring Festival, but not all kinds of retail prices have been raised. Although the wholesale price of some varieties has come down, retail prices are basically flat for mutual subsidies among varieties."

High prices also allow people to eat vegetables cautiously, many stall owners sigh, "before the Spring Festival, the wholesale price of eggplant will be 5.5 yuan / Jin, worried about not selling, I did not dare to enter a Jin."

Lao Li, who has been doing vegetable business for five or six years, said that the price of Spring Festival was higher in recent years, and some fresh vegetables were also bought. But this year, almost ten or twenty yuan of peas and bamboo shoots were asked.

"Now everything is expensive, it can only be saved from the mouth."

Pork price or CPI rose

According to the information released by the Ministry of Commerce, from December 20th to January 31, 2011 last year, the Ministry of Commerce's monitoring of edible agricultural products rose continuously for 6 weeks.

During the Spring Festival holiday, the price of vegetables decreased by 4.5% compared with that before the holidays.

Because pork prices and CPI "hand in hand", its high price impact on January CPI data "deep".

"We did not raise prices."

As a brand in every survey of Shanghai statistical department, the staff of five feng Shang restaurant in Wuding vegetable market said that since January this year, the company has not adjusted the price of meat.

The price list on the wall shows that the selling price of the big row, the small row and the pure lean meat is 16.8 yuan / Jin, the sandwich and hoof are 15.8 yuan / Jin, the rib row is 25 yuan / Jin.

"We are brand meat, the price has always been higher than the similar products, although the price of the pig is rising, the retail price has not been adjusted."

Since last December, grain and oil prices in the wholesale market have also risen slightly.

Reporters learned from the retail market, including rice, glutinous rice, peanuts, soybeans and other varieties of grain, there is no obvious price fluctuations, sea lion soybean oil also maintained a stable price, 5 liters of about 51 yuan / barrel.

However, with the continuous development of drought in the north, wheat harvest is worrying, flour prices have risen recently, and the wholesale price of rice, soybean oil and peanut oil has also risen slightly due to the holiday effect.

Reporters learned from the Shanghai aquatic industry association that during the Spring Festival this year, the prices of aquatic products increased much lower, and the festival prices of small yellow croaker, hairtail, Pomfret, cuttlefish and herring were increased by 10% to 50%.

In the same period last year, Hengda market's large specification Pomfret 45 yuan / Jin, this year 65 yuan / Jin, the highest Spotted Sea crab in Tongchuan market is sold to 200 yuan / Jin.

Four the increase in the number of fish is relatively small, ranging from 5% to 8%.

At present, most of the price of aquatic products has been restored to the level before the festival. However, due to the heavy rain and snow weather in January, the difficulty of pportation and the decrease of fishing volume, the price of aquatic products is at a high level.

Other industries

Many industries welcomed the price increase in February and March.

According to the latest data released by FAO, prices of all commodities in the world, including cereals, sugar, meat and so on, rose in January. The food price index rose 3.4% to 231 points, which is also the highest point in FAO since 1990.

It is noteworthy that in China, in addition to the rising prices of food industry dominated by the festival effect, many industries, which are not subject to the promotion of the Spring Festival Promotion, are also showing signs of rising prices. Many industries including drinks, household appliances, building materials, furniture, refined oil and so on will all raise their prices in February and March, which will bring hidden troubles to the CPI index in the first quarter of this year.

Affected by the price of sugar, fruit juice and PE raw materials, the price increase after the drinks has been confirmed.

In fact, as early as the Spring Festival, some brands have already raised their retail prices. But due to the fierce competition in the Spring Festival market, businesses are going to push up prices while prices will be in place after the festival. The price increases will range from 5% to 10%.

In terms of household appliances industry, white power will become the "leading force".

Since last year, international copper prices and aluminum prices have surged, especially in household appliances, especially in white goods.

Insiders predict that after the Spring Festival, the white power will increase by about 10%.

The news of price rises also includes building materials and furniture industry.

It is reported that some brands have raised the factory price at the beginning of the year, including flooring, paint, bathroom, and so on. But in order to fight the last promotional campaign a year ago, retailers have not raised the retail price for the time being.

But a brand floor dealer said that the cost of handcrafts, pportation, factories and so on is rising.

Insiders said that from the perspective of the whole home building materials industry, the price of products is expected to rise by 6%-10% over the next year.

Oil products will be released after the end of the Spring Festival.

Before the Spring Festival, the "window" of domestic refined oil price adjustment has been opened.

According to the data of interest energy, in January 31st, the domestic crude oil price adjustment reference rate of three crude oil prices had reached 7.77%, which greatly exceeded the 4% price adjustment conditions stipulated by the pricing mechanism.

Analysts will not timely price adjustment boil down to the factors of spring pport.

Analysts believe that after the end of the Spring Festival, 20 days after the end of the Spring Festival, the national development and Reform Commission will raise the price of refined oil again. The price range is expected to be 400 to 500 yuan per ton.

Agencies predict two quarter CPI or new high

Many analysts believe that due to the concentrated consumption of lunar new year, and the drought in the northern region, prices will rise again in January, and CPI will hit a new high in the month. "Breaking five" and "breaking six" have all been put forward.

CICC yesterday released a report that the central bank raised interest rates earlier than expected, and the CPI in the two quarter is likely to reach a new high.

Ba Shu song, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that this year and February are likely to be the high prices of the whole year, and the corresponding regulation of real estate policies and monetary policies will also be the most severe period of the year.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, also predicted that CPI data in January could hit a new high, or 5.3%.

Guo Tianyong, director of the China banking research center of Central University of Finance and Economics, also expects that CPI will return to more than 5% in two and March.