White Collar Investment Strategy: From Industry To Individual Stock

In this column, "white collar"

In a report published last Thursday in the Shanghai Securities Journal, the title was "PTA entered the era of rare" profiteering ".

This report tells us two things: one is that the price of PTA is rising rapidly in the near future, and the other is cotton price.

PTA is a basic chemical raw material, what is the relationship between cotton and cotton? Because cotton prices have risen sharply since last year, as a direct substitute for cotton, the downstream polyester products of PTA have been stimulated, thus driving up the price of PTA.

Affected by the price increase of PTA, stock prices related to PTA, such as Zhuhai port and Rongsheng petrochemical, have risen substantially in recent two days, so the effect of PTA price increase has been reflected in this sector. If we continue to catch up, the risk will be relatively large.

According to the law of the industry, as the upstream PTA price increases will inevitably be pmitted to the downstream industry, so we follow this train of thought.

Perhaps we do not know the industry chain, but Baidu and other search engines can be harvested.

The production of PET through PTA and EG (all these codes are chemical raw materials) and the production of polyester products through PET, so the rise in the price of PTA will cause the chain price increase of downstream products.

According to the chart provided in the industry research report, PET will rise after PTA price rises.

At present, PET is rising but not very large, indicating that PET will continue to follow.

The rise in PTA prices is due to the rise in cotton prices.

Judging from the current situation, because of the decrease in cotton planting area this year, its price will remain at a high level. Therefore, the price of polyester as a substitute is bound to rise further. With the price of raw materials PET rising, the space of polyester prices will increase, so we can find some small and medium-sized listed companies.

There are not many small and medium sized companies that produce polyester products. We have found a company that mainly produces polyester filament.

Although the company's products are mainly industrial, the price of polyester products has always been rising and falling.

This company is characterized by its own production of PET, so it will not be affected by the rise in PET prices.

In the production cost of PET, PTA accounts for about 70%, and EG accounts for about 30%. At present, the price of EG is not increasing. Therefore, the cost pressure brought by PTA price increases to thirty percent off. This is a major difference from the production of PET by most polyester production enterprises, that is to say, the general polyester production enterprises have to bear the pressure of PET price rise, and the company only has to bear the pressure of PTA70% price rise.

The current price of polyester industrial filament is also rising. Although the amplitude is less than PTA, we notice that PET accounts for only 66% of the production cost of polyester industrial filament, while PTA accounts for 70% of the cost of PET. Therefore, the impact of PTA on the polyester industrial filament is only 46%, which indicates that the price increase of polyester industrial filament can basically digest the price increase factor of PTA as long as 46% of PTA is achieved, and the current price increase of polyester industrial filament has exceeded this magnitude.

With the emergence of PTA price effect, it is estimated that the price of polyester industrial filament will further increase, which will undoubtedly greatly enhance the company's performance.

Through the above analysis, we already know that the rise of PTA price will enhance the performance of the company, but this is still qualitative, and we need quantitative analysis.

The specific process of quantitative analysis has been mentioned in the "white collar investment strategy".

According to the relevant research reports, it is expected that the EPS of the stock market is expected to be 1.12 yuan and 1.54 yuan in the next two years, and the dilution will be 0.85 yuan and 1.17 yuan after the completion of the issuance.

As the price of PTA continues to rise in the near future, the price of polyester industrial filament will also rise further. Considering that the company's performance is expected to rise in the following year, we will position the PE in the market 25 times next year, or 29.25 yuan, equivalent to 34 times the expected PE this year.

The price is 30% free from the current price. Taking into account the theme of product prices, the holding time should not be very long, so it is worth buying at bargain prices.