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New York Cotton High Limit &Nbsp; Market Will Reverse

2011/2/22 14:48:00 36

The recent ICE cotton price has experienced roller coaster market.

New York

cotton

The main contract in May after two consecutive days of trading, first on the historical high, and then accompanied by a huge turnover in the limit.

ICE cotton rose sharply and plummeted in the same way as Zheng cotton in November 2010.

The reason is mainly due to the uncertainty of the international funds on cotton production.

First, China proposes to affect commodity prices.

In February 18th, the people's Bank of China announced that the reserve requirement ratio will be raised again. This is the second tightening monetary signal issued within 10 days after the interest rate hike in February 9th, which once again shows the Chinese government's determination to tighten liquidity and control prices.

Affected by this, domestic commodity collective diving, CBOT agricultural futures also fell sharply.

Against this background, the pressure on US cotton in the short term is obvious, and a sharp drop is also reasonable.

Secondly, the global pattern of tight balance of cotton supply has slowed.

Because of the uncertain cotton export policy of the early India government and the impact of floods in Australia, the market's growing concern over global cotton supply has made cotton prices soaring.

Then these worries disappeared, and India's export policy and Australian floods had limited impact on cotton.

Global market supply will not change much, and worries about the tight balance of global cotton will gradually ease.

Therefore, the cotton price is short of the expected stimulation of cotton production and the driving force is insufficient.

Third, the long-standing short energy burst.

In from February 15th to 17th,

ICE cotton

The boom continued to increase by 18.87 cents / pound in three days.

From the comparison of air power, the majority of the former parties took the absolute advantage and quickly pulled up the cotton price. With the weakening of the bull power, the bears began to grasp the initiative.

At the same time, the first half of the market was to increase the price of cotton, and then the collective withdrawal, which also contributed to the rapid fall in cotton prices.

To sum up, the author thinks that

outer disc

The high limit and high volume of cotton will result in the formation of black clouds. In the short term, cotton prices will be under pressure, and the downward trend will be relatively large.

As to whether cotton price is going down, it needs further verification.