Cotton High Shocks Continue &Nbsp; Stock Index Future Shocks.

Hot spots today

The market still needs to digest and absorb the impact of the new regulation of real estate regulation.

The Beijing version of the new regulation of real estate regulation is called the most stringent regulation and control policy. It directly deals with the regulation and control policy of the purchase restriction. Under the guidance of this wind vane, various local governments have also introduced the real estate regulation policies. In the short term, the market is still in the process of absorbing and controlling the new policies of real estate regulation.

The most stringent new regulation of real estate regulation will bring negative effects to the economy. Especially before the reform of fiscal revenue distribution mechanism has not been implemented, such strict regulation and control policies will lead to increased local government expenditure pressure.

The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee demanded that prices be basically stable this year.

To maintain

Crude oil and gold continue to rise as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. In the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the delivery of light crude oil futures in April rose 6.3% to $95.39 a barrel, rising for the 6 consecutive trading day, the longest sustained rise since August last year, and the high point since October 2008.

Affected by this, the commodity market is unlikely to drop sharply in the short term.

Stock index: tightening pressure is sharp, the future will be violent.

On Monday, the two cities were affected by the central bank's raising the reserve ratio and the price of refined oil. The two cities were going up and down. In fact, Friday's market has digested the impact of the proposed market.

In the case of lower inflation, the reason for this is that the huge surplus money can not be effectively hedged after the Spring Festival. This increase is only an alternative and supplement to the quantity instruments in the open market.

In addition, it is rumoured that the central bank's recent dynamic differential reserve ratio tool has been temporarily suspended by the State Council because of its complexity, too many variables and bad operation.

In terms of market sentiment, the recent amount can maintain a high level, or some of the "new job" funds that have been squeezed out by the new property market, but the 7 day interbank offered rate has increased to more than 6 again, which is similar to the situation in late December and late January, indicating that liquidity will tighten again.

However, there is a divergence between the proportion of the net stocks and the ratio of the Shanghai stock index to the futures index.

The technology is relatively optimistic, the Shanghai Composite Index 5 week average and 10 week average line form "golden fork", Zhou MACD also at the same time golden fork, the index resonance form the upside attack form is stronger.

On the whole, this week is expected to shock 3000 points.

Discount rate: the main contract IF 1103 rebounded, the higher the probability of opening the index futures.

Current arbitrage: IF1106 maintains a stable maturity yield of 2.6%; IF1109 has a 4.02% yield to maturity.

Operation suggestion: the old multi single continues to hold, the new many single can break through 3300 time to buy, but the risk has increased substantially earlier, the position must be very small, the profit departure target IF index is 3400.

Stop loss using mobile stop loss method, that is, the closing price fell below the 10 day average line of second days stop loss.

Metals: after short-term adjustment, steel prices will continue to rise.

The steel market is now adjusting, not reversing.

First of all, we think there are 4 main reasons for the sharp decline in steel prices last week: first, the price of steel rose by 230 yuan / ton during the 4-5 days before and after the Spring Festival.

Second, the US import price increase in January was far greater than expected, the CPI growth continued to expand, the core PPI hit a high level in 2 years, and the CPI level in the UK was also 2 times higher than the target level of the Bank of England. Market funds generally fear that developed economies already have liquidity recovery plans.

Third, the local government's constant introduction of real estate control policies has a greater impact on the steel market.

Fourth, the market is worried that China will tighten its liquidity policy again this weekend.

Last Friday, the 1110 main contract of the main steel thread has fallen below the important support of the 5000 pass, while the long choice is mainly affected by this factor.

After analyzing the reasons why the price of steel has fallen, we believe that the price of steel will continue to continue in the later period.

First, the US economic recovery is still unstable and inflation is still moderate.

This is mainly reflected in the weak job market and weak service CPI in the United States.

At least in the short term, this effect is not enough to dominate the market.

Secondly, after China's continuous interest rate increase and the deposit reserve ratio increased after the Spring Festival, the market has further reduced domestic tightening expectations, and this week has also fully digested such policy implications, and is gradually digesting the impact of real estate policies.

Then, on Monday, Shagang raised the factory price of construction steel in late February to inject confidence into the market.

Finally, signs of stabilizing other commodities also have a positive impact on the rise in steel prices.

However

Considering the uncertainty of the market, we tend to have a safe operation strategy.

If the recent 1110 main contract is stable 5050, then the steel price rising trend will continue, more single entry, the upper target to 5200, 5230, after 5230, above 10 points need to pay attention to pressure.

If the price is greater than 5050, the pressure will not exceed the resistance, then the steel price will confirm a downward trend, with an empty entry and a lower target of 4500.

Agricultural products (18.10,0.40,2.26%): cotton high oscillation trend continuation

Cotton has recently seen a relatively large adjustment market, mainly due to

Operation 1109 contract concerns 32000 below support situation, if stabilizes can light warehouse more single intervention, stop loss 31000.