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14 Agencies Predict That PMI Will Reach A New Low Of 6 Months In February.

2011/2/28 19:23:00 76

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The official data on purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry will be released tomorrow, 14 homes yesterday.

Financial institution

The forecast for PMI in February was 52%, lower than the official PMI value of 52.9% in January, the lowest in 6 months.

According to the analysis of relevant experts, the expected downtrend of PMI indicates that the industry has lowered its worries about inflation, but the emergence of new inflation factors has kept the pendulum of regulatory policy still on the side of "controlling inflation".

In the prediction of 14 financial institutions, the lowest predicted value of Societe Generale Securities was 50.9%, and the prediction value of industrial bank to official PMI was 53.3% higher than that of other financial institutions, which was higher than the official PMI value of 0.4 percentage points in January.

Director, finance research center, School of finance, Nanjing University of Finances and Economics

Bian Zhi Cun

It is believed that the industry's widespread expectations of official PMI downside, on the one hand, indicate that China's industrial growth is slowing down. On the other hand, it also shows that the industry has lowered its worries about inflation.

"The main reason for low expectations is due to the different effects of Spring Festival holidays on production volume, new orders and number of employees. In addition, the tightening monetary policy has begun to take effect, such as the tightening of credit policies, which has inhibited the reinvestment of manufacturing enterprises and has affected the business boom."

Bian believes that the spread between the stronger renminbi and the weaker dollar is increasing, which has compacted the interests of China's manufacturing exports and led to a decline in export orders, which to a certain extent affected the industry's expectation of the trend of PMI.

However, the senior expert of the Industrial Bank, Lu Zheng commissar, believes that although the official PMI is expected to lower the industry's expectation of inflation, in addition to the current excess of international monetary liquidity, the rise in rent prices under the real estate regulation, and the high volatility of international commodity prices, the political situation in some countries has caused unsettled new inflation factors, which has further pushed up the prices of commodities that have been high and volatile and increased the cost.

In fact, the impact of the Middle East turmoil has begun to spread to crude oil prices. As the benchmark of global crude oil pricing, the US West Texas light crude oil (WTI) once exceeded 100 US dollars per barrel, and the London International Futures Exchange (ICE) crude oil price exceeded 110 US dollars / barrel.

Bian Zhi Cun also said that the implementation of policies should have continuity and stability. In addition to the economic index, we should grasp the various factors existing in the market and comprehensively consider the policy direction.

It is also considered that the current inflation pressure has not been reduced. The pendulum of policy should still be on the side of "inflation control". The central bank will continue to control inflation through the continuation of raising the deposit reserve ratio and raising interest rates.

Related news

HSBC

PMI preview data hit 7 month low

HSBC Group released HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (HSBC PMI) preview data, HSBC PMI in February was 51.5%, lower than HSBC PMI 54.5% in January, a HSBC PMI 7 month low.

Preview data show that in February, new orders, procurement volume and output expansion of manufacturing enterprises slowed down; new export orders, inventories and employment were shrinking; at the same time, investment prices and factory prices rose rapidly.

Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC China and Asia Pacific joint head of economic research, said that in February, HSBC PMI preview data showed that industrial growth was slowing down significantly.

The Spring Festival holiday is one of the influencing factors, but on the other hand, it shows that the early tightening policy has begun to take effect.

Under the background of no inflationary pressure, volume tightening should continue.

The HSBC PMI preview data is based on a monthly survey of the total sample size of 85%-90%, which, to a certain extent, represents the HSBC PMI final data, reflecting the monthly economic trend, and the final data will be released in March 1st.

The difference between official PMI and HSBC PMI is that official PMI covers a larger sample size, covering more than 800 businesses in more than 20 industries, two times the size of HSBC PMI.

And it covers more large and medium-sized enterprises, reflecting the overall trend of the manufacturing industry. The sample of HSBC PMI is mostly private enterprises, reflecting the operation of SMEs.