Who Increases The National Income Gap?

Resident income

This phenomenon occurs every year.

Many people who are engaged in real estate research and capital market research have such puzzlement: Residents' income shows that both urban and rural areas are at a relatively low level, and the highest income of urban residents is still a very low level. How can this explain the long-standing stock market explosion, the hot real estate market, the high housing prices and a large number of high-end commercial housing sales?

At the same time, this problem is also very much related to income distribution. What kind of state of income distribution does it need to give a clearer explanation.

I have made some investigations on the real income of urban residents since 2005. I did it once again in 2005 and 2006, and did it again in 2009. On this basis, two research reports were formed, one was published in 2007 and the other in 2010.

Our report is based on extensive investigation. We made an investigation of residents' income in 19 provinces, 65 cities, and some counties and towns in China. On this basis, a lot of projections were made. Engel's coefficient method was used in the recent report, and the relevant variables were controlled. The income level and other influential variables were obtained through the model analysis, and the influence coefficient on the Engel coefficient was produced.

On this basis, we estimate the Engel influence coefficient, other variables and the actual income level of the group. The two results seem to be highly consistent. Two times, we find that the highest income of the urban households is 10%, the actual level of the family is far higher than the statistical level.

For example, statistics in 2008 showed that the highest per capita disposable income of 10% of urban households was 43 thousand yuan annual income.

Through our survey, my calculation results show that the actual income of the group is around 139 thousand yuan, which is more than 3 times that of the statistics.

Of course, the income of other groups of residents is relatively accurate, the main difference is in the highest income section, followed by high income is also quite different.

Is this calculation accurate or inaccurate?

I pass other ways, such as the situation of residents having commercial housing, the situation of having family cars, the condition of residents' annual outbound travel abroad, and the data of residents' changes in bank deposits, and verify their results from another aspect.

It is found that the results obtained from different channels are basically close to each other, indicating that the results are basically acceptable.

This result has been widely reported in the media since the publication of the results. Academia, business and government departments also have great concerns and have many discussions.

Now there are still many different views on this issue, and there are still many arguments going on. But there is a lot of gray income, which is not reflected in the hidden income of some high-income residents in statistics.

What does this fact reflect?

I want to point out that there are still many imperfections and imperfections in China's current income distribution system, fiscal and taxation system, and government management system. Because of these problems, there are many uncertain and uncertain parts of income, and even a large number of income distribution phenomena caused by corruption and illegal activities. These need to be solved through quickening the process of institutional reform.

The problems we are facing now are mainly caused by institutional factors. Therefore, we must promote the reform of fiscal and taxation systems, the reform of government management system and other systems related to income distribution.