US Cotton Exports Are Coming To An End. China's Capacity Is Insufficient.

　　 In recent two weeks, Zheng cotton futures market has been ups and downs. In February 17th, it reached a high level of 34870 yuan / ton and then fell sharply. The 24 day began to hit bottom and rebound yesterday. Zheng cotton 1109 the contract received 33200 yuan / ton, and the market fluctuated more violently.

I believe that the cotton market bull market is not completed, the recent high volatility will be the main trend of the market.

Monetary policy is the trigger for a sharp drop. Just after the Spring Festival. commodity market In the face of the negative pressure on increasing interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio, intensive monetary policy has depressed the optimism of the market and triggered a large number of technical sell-off, so that the strong rise of Zheng cotton futures has been suppressed.

But cotton fundamentals have not changed, and this is the main factor affecting the late trend of cotton prices.

After the Spring Festival, most of the domestic textile enterprises have not yet started fully, and the demand for cotton has not been fully released. At the same time, in the face of high cotton prices, many manufacturers have adopted the inventory strategy of buying and using, and also slowed down the demand for cotton to a certain extent. Even so, domestic cotton spot prices remain strong, and have stabilized at 30 thousand. Later, with the increase in the operating rate of textile enterprises, the expected spot price will continue to be a strong pattern, because after all, domestic cotton is in short supply. And the support of spot price makes the price decline of Zheng cotton will not be very deep.

The pattern of global demand exceeds supply. According to the US Department of agriculture, 2010/2011 Cotton yield The growth rate is larger than the growth rate of consumption, and the gap between supply and demand of cotton has narrowed to 283 thousand tons. In 2010/2011, the global cotton inventory consumption ratio dropped to a minimum of 36.73% in 6 years. But domestic cotton supply is not optimistic, and the gap is still up to 3 million 700 thousand tons. The huge gap between supply and demand can only be relied on imports, but China's 2 million 600 thousand tons of import quotas have a big gap of 1 million 100 thousand tons from the gap of 3 million 700 thousand tons. And from now on, the number of cotton exporters in main cotton exporting countries can not be exported. According to China cotton information network data, the US cotton exports are coming to an end, and China has insufficient capacity.

Therefore, the overall supply and demand situation of cotton is relatively tight, which lays the foundation for maintaining the high price of cotton in the later stage.