2011 Where Will Cotton Fly To?

Cotton is the source of clothes. Almost every citizen can not live without it.

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Cotton prices soared 72% in two months.

Before 2010, cotton prices were relatively stable.

In the new year of 10/11, cotton prices have changed drastically.

From the end of February 2011 to nearly half a year's operation of cotton market, cotton prices have experienced three stages of soaring, slump and consolidation.

Chemical fiber, yarn and other products also basically run along the cotton track, and repeatedly hit the highest level in history.

Domestic cotton prices rose from mid September to early November, less than two months, from 18200 yuan to 33000 yuan, or 72%. After that, to stabilize prices, the national combination of boxing controlled the prices of agricultural products. In 2011, cotton prices fell to 26100 yuan in 2011 and fell 16.6% in half a month. After 2011, cotton prices were affected by supply and demand and the rise in international cotton prices, and cotton prices rebounded moderately, rising to more than 30 thousand yuan by February.

What is more strange is that the new cotton annual cotton market also presents an important feature, the volume of pactions has increased significantly, the amount of warehouse receipts has changed little, and the short-term operation is more obvious.

The average daily trading volume increased to 1 million 620 thousand hands, and the turnover reached 204 billion 300 million yuan, which was 3.4 times the previous level. After that, volume gradually decreased and the shadow of idle capital was hidden.

Supply and demand gap uplift cotton prices

Behind the boom in cotton prices is the impact of insufficient supply and demand, which is also related to speculation of idle capital.

Jinqiao Textile Network senior analyst Wei Linyan said that in recent years, China's cotton spinning capacity has been developing rapidly.

According to projections, as of 2010, China's cotton spinning capacity has reached nearly 150 million spindles, an increase of nearly 120 million ingots compared with 1995, which is nearly 5 times that of 1995.

"At present, Shandong's spinning spindle is about 40 million spindles, which is equivalent to the total volume of spinning spindles in 2001."

Dong Yunliang said that according to rough projections, cotton consumption in China was about 13 million 520 thousand tons in 2010, an increase of 10 million 300 thousand tons over 1995, which is nearly 4 times that of 1995.

In the ten years from 1995 to 2004, consumption increased by 3 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 7.6%, an increase of 7 million 300 thousand tons from 7 years in 2004-2010 years, with an average annual increase of nearly one million tons, with an average increase of 13.8%.

Wei Linyan said, compared with the increasing demand, the cotton planting area is difficult to upgrade.

"In 2009 and 2010, the sowing area of cotton was about 7425 and 77 million 640 thousand mu, and the sowing area of cotton was much more difficult to break through. From the domestic market, cotton was limited by the arable land because of the growth of cotton spinning ability. The supply and demand of cotton was basically balanced from production demand to production and demand, and the gap between production and demand was expanded by 2005.

In 2010, the gap between cotton production and demand increased from 2 million 360 thousand tons in 2005 to nearly about 7000000 tons. The contradiction between production and demand has become increasingly prominent, which is one of the important factors for the rise in cotton prices.

In addition, Xun Bin, deputy general manager of Qingdao Galaxy business department, thinks that the soaring cotton prices and the speculation about hot money are related.

"The state is in control of the real estate market, the purchase order is restricted, some of the idle funds are evacuated from the real estate market, and agricultural products, including the cotton market, have been poured into the" real estate group "to become a" fried cotton group ". It has been scrambled in the spot market, especially in the cotton market and the cotton market in Xinjiang.

In the cotton market, it is easy to see from the September 2001 -11 cotton futures deal that the daily turnover increased significantly. As mentioned earlier, the daily turnover of less than 60 billion yuan has nearly 5 yuan in the period of 300 billion yuan, and most of them are short term operations, resulting in the continued Trading of zhengmian futures, and the price is over 34 thousand yuan.

After the introduction of some measures in November, these funds began to gradually withdraw from the cotton market.

Cotton price trend is still complex in 2011.

Looking forward to the trend of cotton prices in 2011, from now on, it is still a "cloud cover".

Wei Linyan said that judging from the current economic performance of the textile industry, it does not support the rise in cotton prices.

However, the cost of seed cotton purchase is relatively high and there is limited space to fall.

According to statistics, as of February 23rd, the average purchase price of grade three seed cotton was 5.51 yuan / kg in 2010/11, and the average cost of folding cotton lint was 23900 yuan / ton, up 62% and 71.7% respectively over the previous year.

But most of the seed cotton was purchased over 6 yuan, the three grade seed cotton was 6.98 yuan / Jin, and the lint cotton reached 30 thousand yuan / ton.

Therefore, the high cost of acquisition and the drop of cotton prices are limited.

"Cotton planting area has not been significantly improved, and the next year will still depend on imports.

According to the Ministry of agriculture's cotton and Cotton Research Institute, the cotton area in the 1011/12 area is 77 million 640 thousand mu, which is 4.1% higher than that of this year. According to this ratio, the output will be around 7 million tons next year, and at least 30% will depend on imported cotton.

Supply and demand is still an important fulcrum to support cotton price fall.

Part of the hoarding cotton business is looking forward to the future market and continues to be reluctant to sell.

Before the Spring Festival, some cotton enterprises that had a higher store pressure or wavered in the market were selling some lint before the Spring Festival.

However, some cotton enterprises that are firmly hoarding will continue to sell and will be more aggressive in raising prices.

The international cotton price is high and higher than domestic cotton price, which has certain support for domestic cotton price.

At present, although the international cotton price has been greatly reduced, it is much higher than our domestic cotton price.

It is difficult for cotton imports to increase in the short term. The contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to improve in the short term, and it also has certain support for domestic cotton prices. "

Zhang Meng, an analyst at the Beijing mid-term futures Qingdao business department, said cotton prices are going up and down, but in the medium to long term, they are still on the rise.