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Focus On Policy And Earthquake &Nbsp; Grasp Structural Opportunities In Balance.

2011/3/14 17:38:00 88

The two sessions are basically over this week. Investors can be concerned about the trend of post - meeting policy and the impact of the Japanese earthquake. Investors can grasp structural opportunities in a balanced pattern.

We expect March CPI to be slightly higher than 1 and February, monetary policy or more stable.

In terms of industrial policies, it is likely that the strategic emerging industries will soon be launched.

Service industry

The sub planning of consumption and regional revitalization is conducive to increasing market focus and investment opportunities.

One aspect of the short-term market needs to be concerned is the impact of the Japanese earthquake.

Our analysis and judgement:

1, economic, financial and bulk

Commodity market

The impact of the field is similar to that of the Kobe earthquake, and the overall impact on the economic and financial markets may not be large.

In addition, the impact on commodities in the short term may be caused by falling demand or impeded pport, resulting in falling prices of products such as iron ore, oil, coal and so on. In the longer term, post earthquake reconstruction will increase demand for commodities, thereby driving up the prices of related products.

2, the impact on Japan's domestic industry depends on the industrial structure of the earthquake stricken areas.

The most influential industries should be local pillar industries.

From the current reports, automobiles, petrochemicals, steel, nuclear power, fisheries, electronics and so on are the leading industries of the three worst hit counties.

3, the impact on China's economy is extensive.

Imported

The impact is greater than exports.

Generally speaking, the import proportion of electromechanical products, chemicals, automobiles, instruments and meters is high, and the impact on related industries is relatively large.

From the perspective of export structure, China is mainly about basic raw materials such as coal, rare earth, metal minerals, agricultural products (000061), aquatic products and so on.

4, the impact on China's industry has both advantages and disadvantages.

The industries that are unfavorable to China are mainly in two aspects: first, the related industries that are exported to Japan, such as trade, pport and logistics, textile and clothing, agricultural products, etc., two is the manufacturing industry which has a high dependence on imports from Japan, such as key parts, equipment and tools, as well as industries that import more infant products and consumer electronics from Japan.

There are two main aspects of China's advantageous industries: first, the industries that directly increase demand after disaster reconstruction, such as pharmaceuticals, steel, construction machinery, engineering contracting, building materials and other industries, two is a industry that has strong competition relationship with Chinese industries, provides opportunities for import substitution for related industries, and accelerates industries in Japan's industrial pfer to China, such as household appliances, electronic components, chemical engineering and construction machinery.

Investment advice:

1, the market is in a big balanced pattern, focusing on the impact of Japan's earthquake.

2, grasp structural opportunities and avoid structural risks.

Japan's earthquake brings opportunities and risks to the A share market. From the perspective of opportunity, medicine, home appliances, chemicals, construction machinery, construction, building materials, electronic components and other industries are relatively benefited, and import trade, textile and clothing, agricultural products, consumer electronics and other industries are relatively damaged.