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Cotton Output Is Still Below Pre Crisis Level In 2010/11.

2011/3/15 15:43:00 119

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World cotton output in 2010/11 is estimated to be close to 115 million packages, an increase of 13% over the same period last year, the largest annual output in 7 years.

The current output forecast shows that output has increased significantly compared with last year, but it is still lower than the level of production that had been achieved before the recent global financial crisis.

These factors are contributing to high market prices, improved credit opportunities and more favourable planting conditions for cotton producing countries.

cotton

Production is expanding.

The output of some major cotton producing countries is expected to be lower than that of 2010. However, the increase in other countries' production will offset the loss of production.

The global cotton planting area in 2010/11 is expected to increase by 11% over the previous year to 33 million 500 thousand hectares, while the yield per unit area is expected to increase by 2% to 748 kg / ha.

Australia is expected to produce 4 million 500 thousand packs in 2010/11, 154% higher than last year.

In addition to the favorable market price of cotton, the utilization of water resources in Australia is also greatly improved than in previous years. Farmers have the opportunity to expand cotton planting on irrigated land and dry land. Australia's 2010/11 cotton planting area is expected to increase two times to 600000 hectares.

Brazil's 2010/11 production is expected to reach a record 8 million 800 thousand pack, an increase of 62% over the same period last year.

The central western region of Mato Grosso has expanded its planting area and increased its production per unit area, 2010/11

Cotton yield

It is expected to account for more than 50% of the total output of the country.

Brazil's 2010/11 area is estimated to be 1 million 300 thousand hectares, up 55% over the same period last year.

India's 2010/11 production is expected to increase by 9% over the previous year, reaching 25 million packages, while the planting area is expected to expand by 7%, creating a record high of 11 million hectares.

In 2010/11, the United States and Uzbekistan produced 18 million 300 thousand bales of cotton (50% respectively) and 4 million 700 thousand bales of cotton (19%).

2010/11 production in China and Pakistan is expected to decrease by 8% to 29 million 500 thousand and 8 million 800 thousand packs, respectively.

The estimated cotton harvest area in the United States and Uzbekistan is 4 million 300 thousand hectares and 1 million 300 thousand hectares respectively.

The planting area in the United States increased by 42% over the same period last year, while the area in Uzbekistan remained unchanged.

The cotton area in China and Pakistan is expected to decrease by 4% and 3% respectively from last year to 5 million 100 thousand hectares and 2 million 900 thousand hectares.

2010/11 Global

Cotton trade

Expand

World cotton exports in 2010/11 were estimated at 38 million 600 thousand packages, an increase of 9% over the same period last year, and global exports expanded for second consecutive years.

Australia exported 3 million packs in 2010/11, 2 million 700 thousand packs in Brazil and 15 million 750 thousand packs in the United States, representing an increase of 42%, 36% and 27% respectively over the previous year.

India and Uzbekistan expected to export 4 million 800 thousand and 3 million 500 thousand packages respectively in 2010/11, down 27% and 8% respectively from the same period last year.

The increase in exports from several major countries offset the decrease in other export countries. Therefore, cotton trade in 2010/11 is the largest volume of trade in recent years.

China is the world's largest cotton importer. 2010/11 expects to import 15 million 500 thousand packs, an increase of 42% over the same period last year.

The proportion of China's cotton imports in 2010/11 is expected to be 40% of the world's cotton imports, compared with 30% in 2009/10.

Bangladesh is currently the world's second largest importer of cotton, and its imports are expected to increase slightly to 3 million 900 thousand bales.

Indonesia and Pakistan are expected to import 1 million 900 thousand packs and 1 million 400 thousand packages respectively, down 8% and 7% respectively from the same period last year.

Imports in South Korea and Turkey are expected to decrease by 1% and 29%, respectively, to 1 million bales and 3 million 100 thousand packages in 2010/11.

Decline in world cotton consumption in 2010/11

Cotton consumption in the global textile mill was estimated at 116 million 600 thousand packs in 2010/11, down 2% compared to the same period last year as China's fiber demand weakened.

China is the world's largest cotton consumer, accounting for 40% of the world's cotton mill.

In 2010/11, China's textile mill consumption is estimated to be 47 million bales, down 6% (3 million packs).

Consumption in Pakistan is down 6% from 10 million 200 thousand to third in the past year.

The volume of textile factories in Brazil, India, Turkey and the United States is expected to increase by 2%, 9%, 2% and 4% compared to the same period, reaching 4 million 500 thousand packages, 21 million 500 thousand packages, 5 million 900 thousand packages and 3 million 600 thousand packages.

The amount of textile mills in the world has exceeded the production volume of nearly 4 years and the number of cotton that has not been counted, resulting in a reduction in the inventory to consumption ratio and a rise in the cotton market price.

Global cotton end stocks in 2010/11 are expected to decrease by 3% from last year to 42 million 300 thousand packages at the lowest level in 15 years.

Since the end of 2006/07, inventory has decreased year by year.

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At present, the global inventory ratio is expected to be 36.3%, the lowest proportion in the past 20 years.

In addition, the global forecast for the end of this year includes a substantial increase of about 4 million packages in the southern hemisphere, due to increased production in Brazil and Australia.

This is very important because cotton in Brazil and Australia has been harvested at the end of the year and delayed in the world market.