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"High Fever" Does Not Return Cotton Price &Nbsp; "Scald" The Cotton Spinning Industry Chain.

2011/3/25 9:28:00 52

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The cotton industry chain is longer, from cotton planting to cotton picking.

Trade

Commercial circulation - spinning, weaving, and finally extending to textile and clothing, the middle links two fields of agriculture and industry.

And the change of cotton prices in the industrial chain may make all links in the middle series face certain cost risks. Just like the high cotton prices this year, the middle reaches enterprises are in trouble, and the downstream enterprises dare not take orders.

Cotton price

"Scalded" the cotton spinning industry chain.

Cotton price "high fever" or difficult to retreat

The big price of this round cotton price can be pushed to 2008.

In 2008, due to the global financial crisis, textiles

market

Extremely atrophy, the entire industry chain sales have been in trouble, eventually leading to the reduction of cotton consumption, prices fell, by the end of November 2008, the 3 cotton prices have dropped to 10000 yuan / ton up and down.

But entering the 2009, with the cotton yarn and cotton market turning better, cotton demand has changed, and prices have also gone all the way.

However, due to the decline in cotton planting efficiency, the high cotton price did not bring the enthusiasm of cotton growers in 2010. In 2010/2011, China's cotton output was only 6 million 530 thousand tons, while the demand for cotton remained strong and the gap was as high as 3 million 700 thousand tons. The huge gap between supply and demand could only be relied on imports. However, the gap of China's 2 million 600 thousand tons of import quotas from 3 million 700 thousand tons was still 1 million 100 thousand tons.

Therefore, the overall supply and demand situation of cotton is still relatively tight, laying a solid foundation for maintaining a high cotton price in the future.

Recently, although cotton prices are oscillating near 30000, and the driving force is insufficient, I believe that cotton prices will rise after a short period of oscillation.

First, spot prices dropped slightly, but continued to maintain stability.

At the beginning of March, the average spot price of cotton reached 31241 yuan / ton after the high point, but the oscillation remained at 30547 yuan / ton at present. However, the futures price of the September contract is still obviously low because the futures price of the theory should be equal to the spot price plus the position cost.

Second, the fund is hot.

Last year's high cotton prices attracted a large number of funds from the market. The flow of money in Zheng cotton market has been rising for 2 billion yuan in the past few years. As of yesterday, the market volume of funds was as high as 13 billion 991 million yuan, and the intensity of capital speculation could not be underestimated.

Third, seasonal factors.

At present, the season is obviously affected by seasonal factors, because cotton is about to sow. During this period, cotton prices tend to rise and fall in order to stabilize the cotton farmers' mood.

Based on the above analysis, it is expected that the cotton price will be "high" or difficult to retreat in the later stage, but there is still a big problem in the pmission of high cotton prices.

The middle reaches are fast and the downstream is difficult to digest.

For the middle reaches of cotton yarn processing enterprises, although the large increase in cotton prices has been successfully carried to cotton yarn prices, but many downstream enterprises can not bear the current high price of yarn, some enterprises turn to low purchasing price of chemical fiber products, resulting in the situation of cotton yarn sales is not optimistic.

As cotton prices soared, orders for textile and garment enterprises in the lower reaches generally increased by 20% - 30% compared to the same period, and individual products even increased by 40%.

Foreign investors are unable to accept more than 20% of the price increase. Some European and American customers have reduced their purchases in China and are more inclined to purchase from Southeast Asia.

Generally speaking, the downstream textile and garment enterprises not only have to face the pressure of order reduction, but also bear the pressure that they dare not receive.

This pressure is more from the "raw cotton, cotton yarn, fabric, processing" the whole industry chain from the cost pressure.

Therefore, it is difficult to determine the cost and price limit of long list, many enterprises basically only receive short-term orders within 3 months.

Borrow the futures market, cotton enterprises seek development space.

When cotton prices are too high, enterprises are faced with higher cost pressure and profit margins shrink. At this point, enterprises can hedge for certain profit margins.