Japan Dragged The World

At the beginning of Japan's earthquake, the world economy was very comfortable. Its confidence comes from the so called " Broken windows theory "That is, destruction can be strongly pulled." Economics 。 But what kind of damage can the world economy tolerate? "Broken windows" can be restored. What about "broken houses"? Or more serious, such as nuclear leakage? "Broken windows" can tolerate "one-time destruction", but unfortunately, the destruction of Japan's nuclear leakage is dynamic and lasting. Now, the world economy is worried.

along with Nuclear leakage Sustained effects, and the recovery of the world economy, will probably continue to wait and see for some time.

In April 5th, a Japanese Nuclear Safety spokesman said that about 1500 tons of low-level radioactive waste would be discharged into the sea in the next 5 days. The day before, the Tokyo electric power company announced that the workers had discharged 11 thousand and 500 tons of low-level radioactive substances from the Fukushima Dai Ichi nuclear power plant into the sea.

This behavior not only caused dissatisfaction among Japanese fishermen and Fukushima people, but also caused panic in the countries along the Pacific Rim. Affected by this, the average price index of the 225 stocks of Nikkei in Tokyo stock market fell 1.06% on Tuesday, and Tokyo electric power shares hit a record low, while export stocks still fell slightly.

　　 "V" type resuscitation

The theory of broken windows will not save Japan after all. Prime Minister Naoto Kan said recently that he had made the worst plan for "East Japan's total destruction".

After a major earthquake in March 11th, some economists predicted that, with the help of a large number of relief funds from the Japanese government and the central bank, the country's economy could soon get rid of the "lost 10 years". However, this is not the case. Because of nuclear radiation and food contamination, the once tight Japanese food is now like a "poison", not as much as a packet of salt.

According to the Japanese Ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, at present, at least 25 countries and regions have adopted restrictions on the import of Japanese agricultural products and processed foods. The range has expanded from Europe and America and Asia to the Middle East and South America, and Japan's food safety image has plummeted. It is reported that in 2010, Japan's exports of agricultural products amounted to 492 billion 100 million yen. The government had hoped to raise its export volume to 1 trillion yen before 2017 by virtue of its "high quality" image.

Japan's economic and industrial minister, Hai Tian Tian Wan, promised in April 5th that no radioactive sewage would be discharged into the Pacific Ocean. But such a commitment can not change the situation: factories in the automotive and electronics industries are seriously damaged; the leakage problem at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has been constantly reported, and the shortage of electricity supply has made it difficult for the manufacturing industry to turn over.

　　 Dragging the global economy

Next week, the finance ministers of the group of twenty will gather in Washington to discuss global economic imbalances. Kahn, President of the International Monetary Fund (G20), delivered a speech at University of Washington in April 4th, saying that the economic growth of the developed industrial countries was slow. The day of the great earthquake was a "big uncertainty" for the global economy.

Experts pointed out that the return of Japanese funds to the nests may trigger turbulence in the global financial and commodity markets, and the heavily damaged Japanese economic system will be transmitted to the international stock market, foreign exchange market and the grain and oil mineral price system through the global industrial chain and capital chain, which will add more risks to the world economy and further expand the impact on the US and China.

Reconstruction is even harder than "World War II". Some media reported on April 5th that the earthquake and tsunami had seriously damaged the Japanese economy. 3 weeks later, it did not improve, and even recovered to the original state of deflation. In the northeast, many parts of the economy have been completely paralyzed. The Japanese paper making group and salmon manufacturer Miyagi Prefecture are the mainstay of the economy in the northeast of the city. As the third largest fishing port in Japan, the fishing industry only got 52 billion 600 million yen in 2009. Nuclear leakage pollution has completely cut off the livelihoods of fishermen and factories.

The debt black hole is expanding, and Japan's natural disaster is likely to cause a financial crisis. Japan's finance minister, Yoshihiko Noda, continued to press the Bank of Japan in April 5th, hoping to use monetary policy to support the earthquake hit Japanese economy.

The world bank predicts that the reconstruction cost of Japan's earthquake will exceed 180 billion dollars, accounting for 3.28% of Japan's GDP in 2010, and more people are worried that this natural disaster will trigger a "Japanese style financial crisis."

　　 Forming a coalition government

In recent days, data from public opinion surveys in Japan showed that more than half of the people hoped that the Democratic Party and the Liberal Democratic Party could form a coalition to jointly cope with the crisis caused by the East Japan earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. After the disaster, the prime minister Naoto Kan's "blessing in disguise" increased to 31%, but this improvement did not guarantee his prime minister's throne. 19% of them wanted him to "step down as soon as possible."

Japan's political turmoil is also a key factor affecting economic recovery. According to the survey, in order to more effectively carry out post disaster reconstruction, 64% thought that the Democratic Party should form a coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party to deal with the crisis.

In fact, shortly after the earthquake, Naoto Kan had offered an invitation to vice president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Tanigaki, but was refused. Koga Makoto, former Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party, recently said that with the deterioration of the situation, the two parties could finally lead to a coalition. The question is, can the formation of a coalition government improve the efficiency of disaster relief? The reason why the "three monks have no water to drink" is the cause of widespread concern in the observation circles.