Zheng Cotton Bottom Picked Up, But The Empty Pattern Remained Unchanged.
Weekly market overview
International crude sugar continued to fall this week.
The 05 phase contract of No. 11 raw sugar closed at 25.66 cents this week, with a total decrease of 1.78 cents or 6.49%.
Positions reached 178 thousand hands, compared with last week, a decrease of 16712 hands.
This week, domestic sugar has rebounded.
The total 1109 period this week ended at about 7255 yuan / ton, with a total gain of 196 yuan or 2.78%.
The position is 625 thousand, an increase of 57296 hands.
This week, the international cotton industry has rebounded in general, but it has repeatedly touched or close to the limit of price rise and drop. It closed 202.97 cents this week, or 7.42 cents or 3.79%.
Positions reached 73677 hands, an increase of 17971 hands.
Domestic cotton bottom picked up.
Zhengmian 1109 contract closed at 29370 yuan, a cumulative gain of 1200 yuan or 4.26%.
The position is 400 thousand hands, 16188 more than last week.
Weekly market analysis
Single month sales increased year-on-year, and domestic sugar market rebounded.
The trend of sugar prices at home and abroad has been divided. Under the expectation of improving the supply of sugar, the international sugar price has been falling continuously. Meanwhile, domestic sugar prices have rebounded. Compared with last week, the price of sugar in domestic production and marketing areas showed an upward trend this week, rising at a range of 10-110 yuan / ton, and the spot price shocks were upward.
This week, the Sugar Association released the domestic sugar market as at the end of March.
production and marketing
Data report.
According to the report, as of the end of March 2011, the total output of sugar was 9 million 804 thousand and 200 tons (10 million 314 thousand tons in the same period of the same period), of which 9 million 10 thousand and 400 tons of cane sugar were produced (9 million 714 thousand tons of cane sugar in the same season), and 793 thousand and 800 tons of beet sugar (600 thousand tons of beet sugar in the same season). Up to the end of March 2011, the total sales of sugar in the quarter were 4 million 472 thousand and 600 tons (4 million 992 thousand and 800 tons in the same season during the same season), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 45.62% (48.41% at the same time in the previous quarter).
After March, the domestic squeezing stage of the squeezing season has entered the closing stage, and the national sugar production has been basically determined.
Although domestic production has dropped by 3.9% over the same period last year, this is mainly due to the late squeezing time in this season. It is estimated that after the end of the season, the domestic sugar production will be basically equal to that of the previous season.
After the sugar conference in February, the market has already expected the reduction of domestic sugar production in this quarter. The tight supply of this season has been digested by the market.
At present, the focus of the market is domestic sugar.
consumption
Level, due to the high sugar price, the domestic sugar sales in this quarter have been lower than the same period last year.
According to China Sugar Association data, as of March, domestic sugar sales decreased by 10.4% compared with the same period last year. If the amount of sugar sold in the state is calculated, the total sales of domestic sugar will be reduced by 810 thousand tons or 13.25% compared with that of the same period last year, while the selling sugar rate is only 45.62%, which is not as good as that of the previous quarter.
The sluggish domestic consumption of sugar or overestimated the demand for domestic sugar supply in the past has led to a fall in sugar prices.
But in March, domestic sales volume reached 1 million 28 thousand and 900 tons per month, 302 thousand and 700 tons or 41.7% more than last month, an increase of 38 thousand and 800 tons or 3.9% over the same period last year.
Domestic sugar market sales are beginning to get warmer.
As the weather gets hotter, the sugar market will gradually enter the peak season of consumption. Sugar sales in domestic sugar market will gradually increase. When consumption exceeds market expectations, the shortage of domestic sugar market will be highlighted again, and the price of sugar will rebound.
Overall, the domestic sugar market in the current squeeze season
supply and demand
The tense situation has not been alleviated. If consumption is strong in later stage, the gap between supply and demand will also be highlighted.
Therefore, the trend of sugar prices will continue to fluctuate at high and broad levels.
But in the long run, the domestic sugar market has entered a period of increase in production, sugar prices are limited, and the latter will be gradually callback.
In the short term, the market expects that after the arrival of the summer peak season, the price of sugar is expected to rebound in the face of low domestic stocks.
Zheng cotton bottom picked up, but the empty pattern remained unchanged.
Foreign cotton prices rebounded this week, but fell on the two trading day after the week, hitting several times or close to the price limit. At the same time, the domestic cotton bottom picked up, following a recent low, followed by the rebound in the surrounding market.
According to the latest crop prediction report released by the US Department of agriculture, the 2011/12 cotton planting area in the United States is expected to reach 12 million 566 thousand acres, an increase of 1 million 593 thousand acres over the previous year and an increase of 14.5%.
Despite the increase in cotton planting area in the new year, it is still lower than previous market expectations.
Meanwhile, according to the latest survey conducted by China Cotton Research Institute in March, the intention of cotton planting in the whole country in 2011 showed a trend of recovery, increasing by nearly half of that in 2010.
The cotton planting area increased by 5%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from January, an increase of 3 million 730 thousand mu to 78 million 270 thousand mu compared with the previous year.
At the same time, India's cotton planting area and output in the new year are expected to set a new high.
The US Department of agriculture predicts that cotton production in India will be increased to a record level of 27 million 300 thousand bags in 2011/12, because it is expected that the cotton planting area will reach a record 12 million 500 thousand hectares.
The main cotton producing countries in the world, China, India and the United States will increase their cotton supply in the new year. It is expected that the global cotton supply will be greatly alleviated in the new year. But there is still a period from the planting season in the northern hemisphere, and the price of international cotton and its competitive crops such as soybeans and corn will still have an impact on the actual planting area.
In addition, because the new year's cotton harvest will only begin in September, there is still great uncertainty in the cotton growth period, including the uncertainty of the weather.
Meanwhile, the sluggish textile industry in the lower reaches of China has also slowed domestic cotton demand.
After the Spring Festival, the sale of domestic cotton yarn was very poor. Although many spinning enterprises changed their spinning varieties in the early days, the proportion of cotton used was reduced, but there was no improvement in sales.
With the increasing cotton yarn inventory in domestic textile mills (from the previous 40 days to two months or so), many small businesses have stopped production and production, and larger enterprises have also increased the holiday time for statutory holidays.
The backlog of spinning products has made it difficult for textile enterprises to purchase cotton. Therefore, domestic demand for cotton has been temporarily reduced.
In the long run, the supply and demand of domestic cotton market is still very tight in the new year, and we need to rely on large quantities of imports to fill the gap.
Therefore, in the new year, domestic and foreign cotton supply gap still exists, the cotton price trend will continue to operate at a high level.
But if next year, cotton planting is expected to increase significantly, the supply and demand side will be partially alleviated, and cotton price later will not be able to maintain high prices in the long term.
Operation suggestion:
Zheng sugar 1109 continued to rebound this week, the 4 trading days this week, all received red, Friday is more volume rise, position has reached the high level in November last year.
In the short term, after the rally, the white sugar has already stepped out of the previous downward trend. It is also breaking through the high point of the previous rebound, and it is stronger in the short term.
In the long run, the trend of high and broad price of sugar has not changed. If the late rebound hits a high point, it can be cut short or short.
At present, it is recommended that many operators continue to hold.
Zhengmian 1109 contract picked up this week, and the first three trading days continued to oscillate in the 28000-29000 interval, which rose on Friday in the surrounding market.
In the short term, domestic cotton prices are strong in the vicinity of 28000 below, and the market is weak.
Judging from the medium-term trend, cotton is still dominated by the empty pattern, the current downward trend has not ended.
On the operational side, it is proposed to temporarily wait and see.
A week's news review
[sugar]
Thailand: 10/11 has produced 8 million 535 thousand tons of sugar in early April.
According to sources from Thailand, 10/11 has been producing 8 million 535 thousand tons of sugar (original sugar value) in April 4th, compared with Thailand sugar production in April 4th. Compared with the 7 million 120 thousand tons in the same period of the year, the output of sugar has increased by about 20%, which has set a record of 8 million 74 thousand tons of sugar in 07/08.
At present, the daily output of sugar in Thailand is still over 60 thousand tons.
Mexico: sugar production is expected to reach 5 million 300 thousand tons in 10/11.
Official estimates of the Mexico National Sugar Association show that Mexico's sugar production is expected to reach a record 5 million 300 thousand tons in 10/11.
Previously, the Association estimated that the output of sugar would reach 5 million 250 thousand tons, still higher than that of the 09/10 season. At that time, due to poor weather conditions, Mexico's production dropped to its lowest level in ten years.
The new estimate means that Mexico can meet domestic demand and will have extra sugar to export to the United States.
By the end of March, the country had accumulated 9 million 804 thousand and 200 tons of sugar.
By the end of March 2011, 9 million 804 thousand and 200 tons of sugar was produced in the national sugar period (10 million 314 thousand tons of sugar in the same period of sugar production), of which 9 million 10 thousand and 400 tons of sucrose were produced (9 million 714 thousand tons of sugar cane sugar in the same period of sugar production), and 793 thousand and 800 tons of sugar beet sugar (600 thousand tons of sugar beet sugar in the same period of sugar production).
By the end of March 2011, the total sugar period was 4 million 472 thousand and 600 tons in the whole country (4 million 992 thousand and 800 tons of sugar in the same period of sugar production), with a cumulative sugar rate of 45.62% (48.41% in the same period of sugar production), including 4 million 79 thousand tons of sugar cane (4 million 668 thousand tons in the same period of sugar production), 45.27% (48.05% in the same period of sugar making period), 393 thousand and 600 tons of sugar beet sugar (324 thousand and 800 tons in the same period of sugar production), and 49.58% (54.13% in the same period of sugar production period).
In 1-2 months, 34 thousand tons of sugar were imported from China.
According to customs statistics, as of the end of February, the total sugar consumption of the country was 34 thousand tons in 2011. Among them, 20 thousand and 900 tons of general trade, 12 thousand and 800 tons of processing and 300 tons of raw materials, 10 thousand tons of sugar exported to the whole country, of which 3 thousand and 300 tons of general trade, 1 thousand and 500 tons of processing, 3 thousand and 200 tons of processing, 1 thousand and 900 tons of warehousing and other 100 tons.
10/11 sugar cane planting income in Guangxi is 35 billion 400 million yuan and {page_break} is high.
2010/2011 sugar cane season (next season) is coming to an end. According to statistics, sugar cane planting income in the region is 35 billion 429 million yuan, an increase of 7 billion 131 million yuan compared with the same period last year.
According to the investigation and Supervision Bureau of the autonomous region price and cost investigation, the survey on the production cost and income of 146 sugarcane producers in 16 counties (cities and districts) of the main sugarcane areas of our autonomous region showed that the sugar cane output averaged 2261.55 yuan per mu, 1277.28 yuan in cash income and 879.26 yuan in net profit, which increased 46.77%, 78.41% and 107.34% over the previous quarter, and the cost profit rate reached 62.62%, up by 25.32 percentage points over the same period.
All income indicators have reached a record high since records.
Guangxi Bama has over 100 thousand mu of sugar cane planting
As of last month, the Bama Yao Autonomous County has completed 101 thousand and 800 mu of sugar cane cultivation, accounting for about 89% of the annual task, and sugar cane planting area is the most recent year.
Sugar cane industry is one of the main pillar industries of Bama's financial revenue.
Since 2011, with the rising price of sugar cane market, the enthusiasm of the masses to grow sugar cane has been unprecedentedly high. The county has seized the opportunity to set up a leading body with county leaders as its chief commander, set up offices, mobilize early, deploy early, and make early implementation of the "cake" of sugar cane industry.
In the process of sugarcane cultivation and production, the county has refined its tasks and quantified it into three leading cadres of counties, townships and villages, and linked the completion of tasks with the year-end assessment awards.
The task force extensively publicize the preferential policies and good economic benefits of sugar cane cultivation, scientifically guide the masses to grow good sugarcane, and scientific and technological personnel walk into the field, hand in hand to teach the masses to plant good seeds, make good use of fertilizer and improve management so as to ensure the production and income increase of sugarcane planting.
In view of the problem of labor shortage in rural areas, the county has actively initiated individual contractors, economic talents, etc. to take the lead in contracting land and continuously planting sugarcane, supporting large growers to expand their planting area, and conscientiously doing all kinds of high-quality services such as technical guidance, land contracting, mechanized farming, sugar cane seed pportation and so on.
[cotton]
The India cotton export seminar was postponed to forecast a total production of 5 million 770 thousand tons this year.
Yesterday, a India official said that the India cotton export seminar, which was scheduled to be held on Thursday, was postponed.
At present, the official time has not yet been released.
A few days ago, the Minister of agriculture proposed to the premier that the export volume of cotton will be increased by 1 million 500 thousand packs (255 thousand tons) on the basis of 5 million 500 thousand packages (935 thousand tons) this year.
The India textile department said that the increase in cotton exports would not affect the supply of domestic textile mills.
Increasing the export of cotton will also help curb the excessive rise in international cotton prices.
In addition, China and Pakistan also suggest that India increase its export volume.
J.Thulisdharan, chairman of the textile union of southern India, also proposed to India's prime minister to increase exports, pointing out that the actual ending stocks were not as intense as CAB predicted and that the new flowers will be listed in mid year to meet the needs of textile mills.
According to the prediction of the Ministry of agriculture of India, the total output of cotton in India this year is 33 million 920 thousand packs (5 million 766 thousand tons), higher than the 31 million 200 thousand package (5 million 304 thousand tons) forecast before the India Cotton Advisory Committee (CAB).
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) report (April) cotton prices will remain strong in:2011/12.
ICAC released the latest report in April 1st: in 2011/12, global cotton production is expected to grow by 12%, driven by the expansion of the main producing countries, to a record 27 million 400 thousand tons.
However, compared with the doubling price in 2010/11, global output growth is still small.
Competition from grain and restrictions on resources such as land, seeds, water and farm implements will hinder the growth of cotton planting area in 2011/12.
Although the increase in supply will meet the demand for cotton in 2011/12, the high price and the competition from chemical fibers limit the amount of cotton used for textile production, which is expected to grow by only 3%.
In 2011/12, cotton production in the world is expected to exceed 1 million 800 thousand tons of textile cotton.
Therefore, the final inventory will increase to 10 million 100 thousand tons.
The global cotton to cotton ratio will rebound from 33% in 2010/11 to 40%, but still below the average of nearly 10 years in 50%.
US cotton export weekly: Net contract is negative, shipping is new year high.
According to the US Department of agriculture (USDA) released in April 6th, the US cotton export weekly, March 25th -3 31 this week, due to the cancellation of a large number of contracts, the United States cotton net signed sales of -3636 tons.
New cotton signed 58387 tons in 2011/12.
The shipment of 113313 tons during the week was 15% higher than the previous week, a new annual high, 27% higher than the average of nearly four weeks.
Mainland China signed a net contract of 4528 tons a week, down 82% from last week, and shipped 40405 tons, an increase of 25% over last week, accounting for 41% of the total freight volume.
Monthly report on cotton turnover Inventory (March 2011)
In March 2011, domestic and foreign cotton prices fluctuated sharply, the sales of finished products of textile enterprises were sluggish, inventories increased sharply, wait-and-see attitude towards lint procurement was made, and spot market pactions were slack.
The mainland stock has increased year-on-year.
In the early stage of the new year, the shipment of Xinjiang cotton was generally smoother, and affected by many factors before and after the Spring Festival, the delivery speed slowed down and improved in late March.
The cotton warehouse Association of China Cotton Association has counted 127 warehousing units. As of the end of March 2011, the total turnover of commodity cotton turnover was 1 million 268 thousand tons (498 thousand tons in the mainland and 770 thousand tons in Xinjiang), with a reduction of 113 thousand tons, a decrease of 600 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.
Accordingly, the total inventory of cotton turnover in the whole country is about 1 million 434 thousand tons, a decrease of 77 thousand tons from the previous month.
In that month, 21 pit stations in Xinjiang pported 206 thousand tons of cotton to the mainland by rail, a decrease of 42 thousand tons, an increase of 35 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.
According to the statistics of the Xinjiang shipping station, in the first 7 months of September 2010 (from September 2010 to March 2011), 2010 tons of commercial cotton were pported to the mainland through Railways (excluding imported cotton and short linen).
Meteorological early warning: weather trend analysis of cotton seeding in 2011
In March, the average temperature in the northwest inland cotton area was lower than that in the same period of the year. Among them, most parts of Xinjiang were on the low side of 2~4 C, and some parts of cotton in Northern Xinjiang were lower than 5~7 degrees C. the temperature in most parts of the Yellow River and Yangtze River was high, and the eastern part of the Yellow River basin was higher than 2~4 C (Fig. 1).
Except for the northern part of Xinjiang, the precipitation in other parts of the cotton area is much lower than that in the same period.
The results of soil moisture monitoring in March 28th showed that the soil moisture in the central part of Shaanxi, the southern part of Shanxi and the central and southern parts of Hebei was wet. The soil in some parts of Hunan was wet.
Generally speaking, since the beginning of spring, the southern part of the the Yellow River basin and the large part of the Yangtze River Basin have sufficient heat and soil moisture, which are good for cotton planting. However, the temperature in the northwest inland cotton area is low, and the soil moisture in some parts of the northern part of the the Yellow River basin is affected by the soil moisture.
Henan Cotton Association: cotton yarn stocks continue to increase
The sale of cotton yarn after the Spring Festival has been extremely sluggish in textile enterprises. Although many spinning enterprises have changed their varieties in the early days, the proportion of cotton used has been reduced, but sales have not improved.
With the increasing storage of cotton yarn in textile mills (about two months or so), small businesses have stopped production and production, and larger enterprises have also increased the holiday time for statutory holidays.
The backlog of spinning products has made it difficult for textile enterprises to purchase cotton, and the price is chaotic.
At present, the price of the Xinjiang class 329 cotton and the 329 grade cotton market in the small part of the public inspection in our province is roughly 31500 yuan / ton, and the local cotton price in Xinjiang is below 31000 yuan / ton.
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