Textile Favored Structure Needs To Optimize The Impact Of Japan's Post Earthquake Foreign Trade

The trade deficit of $1 billion 20 million was no longer a hot topic in April.

Analysts believe the first quarter is quarterly.

International Bulk

Bai Pengming, a macroeconomic researcher at CIC, said in an interview with reporters that from March data, exports rose by 57.3%, and imports grew by 46%. The trade deficit situation has been reversed.

At the same time, Japan's strong earthquake has stimulated the demand for raw materials such as iron and steel in China to increase, and export volume will increase. If the price of bulk goods continues to rise, the price of primary products will rise and will reverse the basic pattern of China's trade balance.

Recently, international commodity prices have risen all the way.

According to customs statistics, the main commodities in import commodities show a trend of "volume and price rise", and the average import price has generally recovered significantly.

Among them, iron ore imports amounted to 1.8 million tons, an increase of 14.4%, the average import price was $156.5 per ton, up 59.5%, soybean 10 million 960 thousand tons, 0.7% reduction, import average price of 573.9 US dollars per ton, up 25.7%.

Zheng Yuesheng, director general of the Statistics Department of the General Administration of customs, said recently that the price increase of iron ore and other bulk commodities in the first quarter was one of the three reasons for the trade deficit in the first quarter.

In addition, with the continuous appreciation of RMB, the cost of imports has decreased, the willingness of enterprises to import has increased, and the rapid growth of endogenous growth driven by domestic rapid growth has contributed to the growth of imports, which are the factors affecting the trade deficit in the first quarter.

Zhang Yansheng, director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, believes that this data reflects that the policy has played a certain role.

Some experts also said that the deficit in the first quarter has something to do with the shift of trade policy this year, and it is also related to the subsequent impact of the Japanese earthquake.

Lu Zheng commissar, a senior economist at Xingye Bank, said that the import and export data in March showed that the impact of Japan's earthquake on China's foreign trade has emerged.

The shortage of supplies in Japan after the earthquake triggered a huge increase in import demand and pushed up the total exports of China. The import of products affected by the earthquake has obviously affected China's imports. It is expected that the impact of the Japanese earthquake on China's foreign trade will be more obvious in the next 3 to 6 months.

During the two sessions this year, Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce, predicted that China might have a trade deficit in the first quarter.

This year's general policy guidance for foreign trade is "stabilizing exports, expanding imports and reducing favorable balance".

From the relevant provisions of the "12th Five-Year plan", we can see that the old idea of "winning the prize and restricting the entry" has been abandoned, and the foreign trade policy is undergoing substantial changes, which will focus more on imports.

Electronic and textile products are favored.

Customs statistics show that in March, exports amounted to 152 billion 200 million US dollars, an increase of 35.8%, and imports of US $152 billion 60 million, an increase of 27.3%.

In March, the export growth rate was 8.5 percentage points higher than that of imports, and the trade deficit of 7 billion 300 million US dollars in February changed to 140 million US dollars in the same month.

The export volume of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products in March increased year-on-year, up 22.6% compared to February, representing a 13.2 percentage point lower than the total export growth rate.

Exports of clothing and footwear in March were significantly higher than that in February, up 44.6% from a year earlier, hitting a 13 month high.

Lu Zhiming, an analyst at Jin Jin Research Center, said that the main reason for the increase in exports in March was that the export enterprises started after the Spring Festival, and that the export situation of the enterprises gradually returned to normal levels. The economic recovery of the main export countries gradually tended to improve, and the economic recovery of the major developed countries such as the United States, Germany and France continued to improve, and the demand for China's imports also increased.

In the import commodities, the import volume of major commodities kept increasing, and the import average price generally rose obviously.

According to Lu Zhiming analysis, the total import volume is high. The main reason is that after the Spring Festival, enterprises and projects have been started, leading to the rapid increase of domestic upstream energy, raw materials and other commodities import demand.

This is also one of the main causes of the first trade deficit in the first quarter.

As for the dramatic increase in garment exports in March, some experts have warned that the pressure of clothing and textile enterprises is still heavy because of rising oil prices and boosting costs.

According to industry sources, most of the garment products are made of synthetic cotton and polyester, except for all cotton and wool fabrics. Among them, the proportion of polyester and other fabrics is about 70%, and the synthetic fibers such as polyester fiber are closely related to the crude oil, and the foreground is not optimistic.

From the perspective of import countries, the growth rate of imports from Japan alone has declined, and the growth rate has reached a new low in 16 months.

The growth rate of imports from the EU, Southeast Asia and the United States in March was higher than that of total imports. The growth rate was 31.2%, 28.8% and 27.6% respectively. The growth rate of imports from India, Japan, Korea and China Taiwan was lower than that of total imports.

But in addition to Japan, the rest of the world grew faster than in February. In March, the growth rate of imports from Japan was 16.6% year-on-year, down 2.4 percentage points from February, reaching a new low in 16 months.

Although trade in the first quarter indicates that China's foreign trade is developing in a balanced way, experts warn that China's foreign trade still has great problems. The biggest problem is the optimization of trade structure.

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Foreign trade structure needs to be optimized

Bai Pengming believes that the most serious problem in China's foreign trade is the irrational structure of China's foreign trade.

From the perspective of trade structure, the trade deficit mainly comes from the rapid growth of general trade imports.

In the first 3 months, general trade imports amounted to US $231 billion 950 million, an increase of 37.4%, which is 4.8 percentage points higher than that of the same period.

Under the general trade terms, the trade deficit was 45 billion 980 million US dollars, an increase of 66.5%, which is close to the level of 2010.

Imports of high-technology products grew slowly.

Bai Pengming said that China's foreign trade has been mainly exported for a long time, and exports low-end products through low labor cost advantages. The export volume of high-end products is relatively small, lacking core technology, the quality of products is not high, and the market competitiveness is relatively low. Because of the price advantage, China's foreign trade enterprises are repeatedly subjected to "anti-dumping" sanctions, and huge compensation and high tax rates have made foreign trade enterprises miserable.

The key to the above problems is that our trade structure is irrational. First of all, we should actively develop core technologies and increase the competitiveness of enterprises. Secondly, we should improve product quality and establish brand effect; finally, expand domestic demand and pform the structure.

Only by actively seeking the structural pformation of trade will we be able to reverse the situation of China's foreign trade.

Zhang Yansheng suggested that we should make an issue on the structure of imported goods.

Imports grew rapidly in the first quarter, indicating strong domestic demand and stable economic operation.

In the future, while increasing imports of strategic materials and resources including energy, minerals and grain, we should continue to accelerate the pformation of the mode of foreign trade development, adjust the structure of import and export commodities, and gradually expand the introduction of advanced technology and equipment and services.

At present, the Chinese government has gradually realized the irrational situation of our country's economic structure, and is actively carrying out the pformation of the economic structure, promoting economic growth through expanding domestic demand, and introducing advanced technology to seek long-term development.

In addition, we encourage export enterprises to actively innovate, improve product quality and encourage overseas investment, so that China's trade pattern will change from relying on exports to relying on investment, consumption and export.