The World Cotton Enters The Production Cycle &Nbsp; The Short Price Sniping Current Price Returns.

"When cotton

As of April 28th, Zheng cotton main CF1109 contract closed at 26420 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day, down 175 yuan, or 1.45%.

The main contract volume reached 2 million 560 thousand hands, holding 410 thousand hands, an increase of 27 thousand hands.

On the same day, Zheng cotton's main contract increased volume, and its position increased by nearly 80 thousand.

According to the Zhengzhou mercantile exchange positions list, at the end of the day, the empty side held 183234 empty hands, the day increased 15366 hands empty list, while the long held 170525 hands, the day increased 9423 hands and more single, from the position, we can see that the market short struggle will continue, the short position is still no intention to leave.

As of April 27th, ICE cotton futures closed sharply lower, the most active ICE July cotton contract fell 4.36%, closed at $1.5339 per pound and touched down limit.

Inventory in dealer hands is higher than in previous years.

According to the information released by China cotton information network, since April 28th, Shandong Wei Qiao textile has been lowered by 1000 yuan, and the 329 level receiving price is 25500 yuan / ton.

This is the fourth time since April that the company has cut down the purchase price of lint, and has accumulated a decrease of 3000 yuan / ton. Frequent price cuts have prompted an increase in the market wait-and-see atmosphere, which has directly led to the increasing number of neighboring delivery enterprises.

According to industry sources, due to the reduction of domestic and international cotton supply, cotton prices continued to rise last year, and cotton farmers and dealers' psychological reluctance to sell gradually increased.

Therefore, when cotton prices are rising, some dealers are hoarding a certain amount of cotton.

It is understood that the inventory of cotton farmers in North China is significantly higher than that of the same period last year, and some farmers still have more than 50% cotton.

At the same time, dealers continue to be bullish factors, the mentality of selling is also strong. Many dealers still have more cotton, and some of them are better than the same period last year. The current inventory can continue to produce for 2-3 months.

In addition, according to foreign reports, India's new flower listing reached 77 thousand tons in from April 11th to 17th, an increase of 16.7% over the same period last year, the highest level in the past 5 years.

As of April 17th, the total volume of new cotton in India in 2011/2012 was 4 million 811 thousand tons, an increase of 2.2% over the same period last year, representing a 0.9 percentage point increase over the 3 week earlier period of 1.3%. The main reason is that the spot price has dropped sharply compared with 3 weeks ago, which has accelerated the speed of cotton farmers' selling cotton.

If local cotton prices continue to fall, the number of new flower listings is expected to increase further in the coming weeks.

According to the report issued by the national cotton market monitoring system, as of April 11th, the yarn sales rate of textile enterprises was 84%, a decrease of 8.8 percentage points, the lowest level since September 2008. The stock days were 26.5 days, the annulus ratio increased 13.1 days, the highest level since March 2009.

"Because the raw materials are now sold at high prices last year, cotton yarn is still in a state of loss even if the cost of production is saved.

Therefore, now the factory operating rate is not high, even if we want to purchase is also on demand procurement, dare not hoard too much of the goods.

A textile factory director told reporters.

Lin Guofa, who consulted by Breck, thinks that excessive cotton prices cause the cost of cotton yarn to rise sharply, and the demand for downstream cloth and clothing is restrained. In order to reduce the cost, clothing enterprises require cloth enterprises to reduce the proportion of pure cotton in cotton cloth and increase certain chemical fiber.

At the same time, with the reduction of yarn and cotton price difference, the profits of textile enterprises have shrunk sharply, yarn demand is not good, and stock squeezing is more obvious. This affected the spinning enterprises to slow down the purchase of cotton, and some enterprises even stopped buying cotton and consumed their stocks.

He also said that compared with cotton yarn, mixing a certain proportion of chemical fiber demand is better, inventory backlog is not obvious.

At the same time, the international economy is still not clear, clothing demand is not strong, domestic demand has not yet risen, and chemical fiber because of low prices occupy a lot of cotton yarn demand, eventually cotton demand or lower than expected.

In addition, the wage of domestic general workers has skyrocketed. As a labor-intensive clothing enterprise, some of them are unable to withstand the collapse of cost pressures, and the demand for cotton cloth has declined.

Global cotton enters production cycle

Lin Guofa believes that the purchase price of cotton seed cotton in China has exceeded 6.5 yuan / Jin in 2010/2011, and the output value per mu has reached 3250 yuan per mu of 500 kg per mu.

If we can achieve a high yield of 700 Jin / mu, the output value will reach 5000 yuan / mu, even if the current labor costs rise substantially, the cost of cotton per mu in general is only 1500-2000 yuan, and its planting income is obvious.

The latest cotton purchase price in the country is also close to the purchase price of seed cotton, which is also close to 4.5 yuan / Jin. Even if the new year's cotton price drops, its purchase price can also keep the capital and achieve a reasonable profit.

In addition, cotton production efficiency in the main cotton producing areas is obviously better than other crops, which is also an important factor for farmers to love cotton planting.

At the same time, he believes that the global cotton prices rose sharply last year and the cotton prices were substantially refreshed, which is expected to increase significantly in the new 2011/2012 global cotton planting area.

Due to the impact of soaring prices, cotton demand countries in China, India and Pakistan are expected to increase their planting area.

This year, the weather of the three major cotton sowing areas is much better than that of last year, and the high yield is expected to be strong.

At present, the cotton output of cotton picking in Brazil has been greatly increased, indicating that the excessive cotton price has greatly promoted the cotton production cycle in the next year. 2011/2012

According to the information from China cotton information network, in from April 15th to 21st, the US signed net exports of land cotton in the first week of this year to -9956 tons, shipment 80036 tons, net signing of this year, 1134 tons of Pima cotton and 1769 tons of shipment.

When China signed 1202 tons of land cotton this year, it cancelled 11635 tons, so the net contract was -10433 tons.

The mainland futures quarter believes that in recent weeks, the volume of US cotton export contracts has been negative. China has cancelled a large number of orders, which may lead to the failure of US cotton exports.

From the data of the US cotton export weekly published in April 28th, we can see that the phenomenon of cancelling the contract is still happening.

Therefore, if the fundamentals do not improve, the downtrend will continue.

The Zheng Mian mean line system is in a short trend and the drop channel is in good condition.