Niu Wenxin: Replacing RMB Appreciation With Export Tariff Increase

An important reason for the appreciation of the renminbi is "

The most important thing is that the appreciation of the renminbi and the monetary conditions of the tightening have already put great pressure on the domestic enterprises.

The April PMI data show that cost pressures and monetary pressures have made Chinese enterprises unable to bear heavy burden. If this continues, China's economic stall is inevitable.

How to solve this vicious cycle?

We should use structural measures to increase export tariffs to reduce exports, and let the RMB exchange rate be relatively stable, or even continue to operate in the direction of depreciation.

So it is.

First, it can avoid tightening monetary policy in the domestic market, affecting the normal operation of enterprises, avoiding economic stall and keeping employment; second, increasing revenue, increasing the income to social security, strengthening national welfare and stimulating consumption growth; and third, as long as import tariffs do not increase, the purpose of reducing exports and expanding imports can also be achieved, and the goal of promoting trade balance and reducing foreign exchange reserves can also be achieved. Fourth, it can also achieve the goal of not allowing Chinese goods to be cheap foreigners.

The most important advantage is that the stability of enterprises is expected to increase.

The change of exchange rate is very changeable. It is very difficult for enterprises to grasp it.

The use of hedging tools requires not only the relevant technology but also the loss of gain.

Note that increasing export tariffs must be structural, increase restrictions on the taxation of export commodities, and moderately raise general and incentive export tariffs, and reject cheap Chinese goods to subsidize foreigners.

Now, the appreciation of the renminbi can not prevent the cheap export caused by vicious competition among enterprises, and the more unstable the currency is, the stronger the appreciation expectation is. The more monetary tension is, the quicker the business will speed up the turnover of goods and capital, and the easier it is to sell cheap.

This is another vicious circle.

The current situation is very puzzling.

On the one hand, the government does everything possible to stabilize exports, through the structural tax rate to reflect export incentives to some industries, and to protect employment and protect the total amount. That is to say, from the perspective of structural policies, there are different pressures on the export commodities, but on the other hand, the government allows RMB to appreciate continuously and suppress all exports. That is to say, from the perspective of aggregate policy, all export commodities will be suppressed.

This is the contradiction between structural policy and aggregate policy.

Just like "one foot on the accelerator and one foot on the brakes", the economic cost is enormous.

So I think structural adjustment must focus more on structural policies than aggregate policies.

Now, academics and officials often say that the appreciation of RMB will help upgrade industries and contribute to industrial restructuring.

This is true, but "helping" is not a decisive measure, nor should it turn the total exchange rate policy into a dependent path, which is against the basic knowledge of economics.

There is no doubt that we need to rely more heavily on tax policies and structural policies to adjust our structure.

Since we have to maintain pressure on exports, since we are unwilling to increase foreign exchange reserves, we can not make domestic enterprises quickly achieve integration, bigger and stronger. Then we must have a way to achieve our goal at the same time.

And the structural improvement of export tariffs is far better than the appreciation of the renminbi, because its side effects are small.

There are successful cases.

For example, the export of resource commodities has shrunk immediately after the export tariffs of resource commodities have been raised.

After the restrictive policy of rare earth exports, the price of rare earth elements rose sharply, and China's rare earth companies immediately increased profits.

Why do we not need such a trick to make our costumes, shirts, shoes and caps, bags and other traditional bulk export prices rise rapidly, while subsidizing wage earners in these industries?

I think this is a win win win for China, Yu Min and enterprises.

Of course, the price rise of China's bulk export commodities is bound to affect the quantity of exports and affect the prices of the buyers.

Of course, the impact of RMB appreciation is not the same effect? We can not help pferring the cost of raw materials of our export enterprises, and the subsidy after tax increases is the best way to pfer.

Because a single enterprise is limited in its ability to pfer itself, or even powerless at all.

When necessary, the government should consider whether it is possible to reduce import tariffs by increasing export tariffs appropriately, so as to increase imports, reduce exports, balance trade and reduce import costs of raw materials.