The Era Of "Low Growth And High Cost" Of China'S Textile Exports Has Arrived.

There are indications that China foreign trade The pace of spanformation is accelerating. Ministry of Commerce Minister Chen Deming said publicly on many occasions that the overall policy guidance for foreign trade is "steady export and expansion." Imported Reduce surplus "

Efforts to expand imports continue at this stage. Canton Fair It has already been reflected. From the 109 Canton Fair, the import exhibition area has further optimized and reduced the category of exhibits, and the total number of subjects has been reduced from 12 to 7. A total of 534 enterprises from 53 countries and regions participated in the exhibition, an increase of 33 compared with the previous one.

Wen Zhongliang, deputy director of the Ministry of foreign trade of the Ministry of Commerce, revealed at the Canton Fair that the Ministry of Commerce will work together with several other ministries to formulate policies to promote imports, which are expected to be introduced in the first half of this year.

"This is the best year. This is the worst year."

Wang Qian, chief analyst of China's first textile network, the senior researcher with more than ten years' experience, wrote in his latest textile industry analysis report: "compared to 2009 and 2010, enterprises are exceptionally optimistic about export growth, but this is a year from optimism to pessimism, compared with the next few years, and enterprises generally expect the growth rate to drop."

In this 2011 "China Textile and garment export status" and "12th Five-Year" outlook, Wang Qian asserted that the era of "low growth and high cost" of China's textile exports has arrived.

This judgment is not only applicable to the textile industry.

Yesterday, the 109th Canton Fair ended in the Pazhou Exhibition Hall in Guangzhou. In this 21 day exhibition, there is a "tangled" sentiment among foreign trade enterprises.

Customers returned and orders grew. But the look of foreign trade enterprises is not easy. In an interview with reporters, their tone is always a bit of a helplessness. "This year's list is good, but I dare not answer it."

When costs rise more than 20%, or even 30% or 40%, even the most powerful companies can only raise 10% with customers. The difference between the cost and the cost must be digested by the enterprise itself.

On the eve of the opening of the Canton Fair, the data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in the first quarter of this year, China had a total trade deficit of US $1 billion 20 million, of which the import value reached a record high for the first time, exceeding US $400 billion. This is also the first quarterly trade deficit in 6 years after the first quarter of 2003 and the first quarter of 2004.

The "spring foreign trade situation report" released by the Ministry of Commerce during the Canton Fair in 2011 pointed out that the growth of imports is expected to be faster than exports this year, with the increase in domestic demand, the expansion of import policy support and the rise in international commodity prices. The situation of Mao Yiping will further improve.

There are various indications that the pace of China's foreign trade spanformation is accelerating. Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce, said in public many times that this year as the opening year of "12th Five-Year", the general policy guidance of foreign trade is "steady export, expand imports and reduce favorable balance".

But for the more than 100000 foreign trade enterprises in Guangdong, they are more concerned about whether this means that China has given up the traditional idea of "reward and entry restriction", and that the foreign trade policy will focus more on imports so as to promote trade balance.

The "hot" order "high cost, low growth" era is coming.

In order to solve the cost pressure, it is inevitable for export enterprises to raise prices. But in order to ensure competitiveness in the international market, the price increase is far below the cost rise. At present, the "leading role" that really drives the growth of China's textile and clothing export has shifted from quantity growth to export price rise.

"At this Canton Fair, we have removed many large lists, including WAL-MART." Leeson of Linshu Yu Xi arts and Crafts Co., Ltd. told reporters.

Since last year, the price of raw materials used for the production of cotton cloth has been an adventurous roller coaster. From 13 yuan / m in June last year and 20 yuan / m in September, it reached 43 yuan / m at the beginning of this year. Recently, prices have begun to fall, but this is not a good thing for Leeson, because they can not buy cotton cloth: the weaving mill is worried that the price of cotton will continue to fall, so they dare not produce.

Leeson used the word "danger" to describe the current foreign trade situation. He believes that this year's situation is more complicated than the international financial crisis. "When the financial crisis happens, there is no need to stop. Now, after the receipt of the bill, the cost will go up very badly. If you send the price according to the order, you must lose money. If you don't ship it, you will have to pay the penalty and pay more.

Reporter survey found that last July cotton spot price of 14 thousand yuan / ton, to November prices rose to 31 thousand yuan / ton, or more than 1 times. Although cotton prices have dropped slightly in recent years, they are still near the high level of 30 thousand yuan / ton.

At the same time, recruitment difficulties and increasing labor costs have become a prominent problem perplexing the operation of enterprises. Many enterprises have told reporters that factory recruitment is only seven or eight of the previous year, or even less than 50%. Enterprises can only raise staff salaries substantially. On the basis of a substantial increase in wages last year, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta generally have 20% to 30% wage increases this year, showing a trend of continuous rigid rise.

As early as the financial crisis, foreign trade enterprises summed up the "five knives" on the head as "three rates and two prices": exchange rate, interest rate, export tax rebate rate, raw material prices and labor prices. Now, the situation has changed. At that time, the appreciation of the renminbi, which was considered to be the first knife, has now given way to the "more ferocious" two price.

The latest survey of Guangdong provincial foreign trade and Economic Cooperation Bureau shows that with the increase of the cost of resources, energy, raw materials and labor, plus the appreciation of RMB, 95% of enterprises say that the cost of export is rising. About 50% of the enterprises' export cost increased by 10% - 20%, and the export cost of 20% increased by more than 20%, while the cost of the remaining 5% was basically flat. At the same time, about 45% of the company's profits declined, the proportion increased by 8.3 percentage points over the same period last year.

Take the most representative textile industry as an example. In 2010, China's textile and clothing exports exceeded the US $200 billion mark for the first time, a record high. Textile exports continued to maintain a high growth rate of 23% in the first quarter of this year. But in the view of industry analysts, the foreign trade situation, which is hidden behind the beautiful data, is not very optimistic.

Wang pointed out that due to inflation, export enterprises are generally faced with a huge increase in costs. In order to solve the cost pressure, it is inevitable for export enterprises to increase their prices. However, in order to ensure competitiveness in the international market, the price increase is far below the cost increase. That is to say, the "leading role" that really drives the growth of China's textile and clothing export has changed from quantity growth to export price rise.

In the financial crisis, enterprises are focused on preserving orders and ensuring production. But in the post crisis era, their troubles are increasing. Labor costs, raw material costs, coupled with appreciation of the renminbi, environmental costs, land costs and capital costs are rising. The rising cost of enterprises is the only trend. With the coming of the high cost era, orders are becoming more and more "hot".

Orders have not been reduced, but profits are shrinking and the prospects are uncertain. This is the general feeling of foreign trade enterprises.

The end of 11th Five-Year also means "the end of an era". China's golden age as the world's processing plant has begun to fade slowly, and the era of "low cost and high growth" has begun to fade. Wang Qianjin told reporters that with the fundamental changes in the ecological environment of China's exports, the beginning of "12th Five-Year" also announced the arrival of an era of "high cost and low growth". {page_break}

RMB appreciation, smart foreign trade enterprises increase import "hedging"

Industry experts say that a country's national strength will continue to grow and its currency will also strengthen. This is the economic law. At present, China has surpassed the United States to become the world's first export power, and imports are expected to exceed us in 3 years, when China will become the world's largest importer and exporter. This also means that RMB appreciation is an inevitable choice.

Since China's resumption of foreign exchange reform in June last year, the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar has risen by more than 4.5%, breaking through the 6.5 critical juncture, setting a new high since 2005.

For export enterprises, the negative impact of RMB appreciation is mainly reflected in three aspects: first, further compressing the profit margins of enterprises; two, weakening the competitive advantage of products in the international market, and the export is subject to certain restraint. Three, the uncertainty of appreciation expectation directly leads to the loss of partial orders.

But Zhou Li, the export manager of Shanxian County huarin arts and Crafts Co., Ltd. said: "we are not afraid of RMB appreciation. Compared with the rise in labor prices by 20% and 20%, there is also a high and low price of raw materials, which can not be expected. The exchange rate has been slowly appreciating, and how to rise is just a few points. "

And smart foreign trade enterprises have learned to increase the cost of imports by hedging the increase in the appreciation of the renminbi.

Hai Liang Group Co., Ltd. is the largest copper export enterprise in China. Copper must be heavily dependent on imports. Feng Yali, chairman of the company, said that while importing the main raw materials, they should import imported zinc and nickel from the auxiliary materials according to the needs of export products, while increasing the recycling and utilization of foreign scrap copper resources, so as to make up for the shortage of domestic scrap copper and reduce the procurement cost of raw materials. The State encourages the import of scarce resources such as copper, which is conducive to promoting the balance of international trade balance, reducing trade surplus, easing the contradiction between RMB appreciation and trade friction, and enhancing China's international status.

"Our company has been studying the import policy of the country very early, after all, this is a trend." Guo Lizhong, director of Jiangsu Guotai International Group, told reporters that "first of all, this is closely related to our own business. If the import policy is favorable, we also consider hedging the price risk by importing raw materials."

Yao Wenping, vice president of the China Chamber of Commerce for import and export of mechanical and electrical products, told reporters in Nanfang Daily that the state's proper acceleration of the appreciation of the renminbi was due to the consideration of the overall situation. "Now that commodity prices are so high and continue to rise, it is clear that a proper appreciation of the renminbi can bring great benefits to the country's imports."

Yao Wenping said: "a country's national strength will continue to strengthen, and its currency will also become stronger. This is the economic law. At present, our country has surpassed the United States to become the world's first export power, and we expect imports will exceed us in 3 years, when China will become the world's largest importer and exporter. This also means that RMB appreciation is an inevitable choice. "

Lin Dongyi, chairman of Guangdong Sili International Brand Management Co., Ltd. also supported Yao Wenping's view. He said: "in fact, we already feel that the appreciation of the renminbi has become a trend. Not only the European and American countries want us to appreciate, but also from the overall needs of our country, the appreciation of the renminbi has been overwhelming. Although the appreciation of the renminbi has a greater impact on our offer, we can still make it up from other aspects.

Where will the policy go? A package of "promotion" policy will be introduced soon.

On the agenda of the Forum on foreign trade held by the Ministry of Commerce of the Guangzhou Trade Fair, one detail attracted the attention of the participants. The usual business representatives were mainly reporting on the export situation. At the forum, two import and export enterprises were specially arranged to talk about the import policy.

The Canton Fair is one of the symbols of China's foreign trade "vane", which is the Forum on foreign trade held by the Ministry of Commerce during the Canton Fair.

Because each forum is often a "policy briefing", careful people can see a hint of the next policy adjustment.

And this symposium is a bit special. Wang Qishan, vice premier of the State Council, who is inspecting Guangdong, also attended and presided over the meeting. The governor of Guangdong Province, vice governor Zhao Yufang and Deputy Governors of Liaoning, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hubei, Sichuan and other provinces were represented at the meeting, and 12 representatives of domestic import and export enterprises attended the meeting.

One of the details on the agenda of the conference attracted the attention of the participants: the usual business representatives usually reported on the export situation, and at the forum, two import and export enterprises were specially arranged to talk about the opinions and suggestions on the import policy.

And export enterprises have appealed to maintain the basic stability of export policies, especially the adjustment of export tax rebates. Instead, the two representatives of import and export enterprises focused on expanding import scope, expanding import duty exemption catalogues for imported equipment, moderately reducing import tariffs, and further implementing import trade facilitation.

At the meeting, Feng Yali suggested to Vice Premier Wang Qishan that large quantities of raw materials should be encouraged to be imported, a more relaxed environment for trade financing in the import links and a proper relaxation of foreign exchange management for re export trade.

At the meeting, Wang Qishan listened carefully to the speeches of the business representatives. He said that in the new stage of development, we must conscientiously implement the central government's decision-making and deployment, focus on the main line of the theme, adhere to both import and export, maintain stable export growth, strive to expand imports and promote balanced trade development. We should take measures to study and improve the import and export policies and promote market diversification.

Wen Zhongliang, deputy director of the Ministry of foreign trade of the Ministry of Commerce, revealed at the current Canton Fair that the national import work conference will be held in the near future. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce will work with several other ministries to formulate policies to promote imports, which are expected to be introduced in the first half of this year. It is estimated that China's strategic industries such as strategic emerging industries and advanced equipment manufacturing will focus on supporting the development of the industry during the "12th Five-Year" period. In addition, the list of technologies and products to encourage imports is expected to be adjusted in the near future.

In fact, efforts to expand imports have already been reflected in this Canton Fair.

Since the establishment of the import exhibition area at the 101 Canton Fair, the reform of the import exhibition area has been advancing slowly and firmly. From last year's autumn trade fair, the import exhibition area of the Canton Fair was added to two phases, and the brand zone was set up for the first time in the import exhibition area. From the 109 Canton Fair, the import exhibition area further optimized and reduced the category of exhibits. The total number of subjects decreased from 12 to 7. A total of 534 enterprises from 53 countries and regions participated in the exhibition, an increase of 33 compared with the previous one.

Liu Jianjun, spokesman for the Canton Fair, said that the adjustment was mainly aimed at improving the professionalization level of the import exhibition area, so that the import exhibition area not only accords with the national policy guidance, but also meets the needs of the Chinese market, and has complementary advantages with the export exhibition area of Guangzhou Fair.