CPI Growth In April May Fall To 5.1%&Nbsp, Easing Domestic Inflation Pressure.
The data released in April this week will give the market a sigh of relief.
Without any accident, inflation in April, real economic growth and
Money and credit
Growth will slow down.
A recent report by Goldman Sachs said that the CPI growth rate in April could be reduced from 5.4% in March to 5.1%.
This decline is mainly affected by the price of vegetables.
The report said that although pork prices have continued to rise in recent weeks, their growth is far below.
Vegetable prices
The weight of these two sub items is about 3%~4%.
Affected by this, the overall decline in food prices.
Non food prices rose very small, from 2.7% in March to 2.8%.
In addition, the weight of finished oil in CPI is very small, so the direct impact of its price rise is not large.
A report from Spain's external bank held similar views with Goldman Sachs.
The Agency predicted a CPI increase of 5.2% in April.
In addition to food prices, the decline in the purchasing managers' index (PMI) is also an important consideration.
This index has declined compared with March and exceeded market expectations, indicating that the economic activity has cooled down.
In April, the ex factory price index (PPI) increased from 7.3% in March to 7.1%.
The growth rate of PPI has continued to decline since the fourth quarter of 2010. Goldman Sachs believes that this reflects the effect of the same period of tightening policy.
Goldman Sachs expects industrial growth to be under pressure due to monetary tightening and power shortages.
fixed assets
The growth rate of investment will slow from 25% in 1~3 to 24.9% in 1~4.
In addition, the year-on-year growth in retail sales in April is expected to remain unchanged at 17.3%.
On the whole, the growth of real economy will slow down.
In terms of money and credit, Goldman Sachs expects RMB loans to rebound to 720 billion yuan in April, up from 679 billion 400 million yuan in March.
Goldman Sachs believes that this rebound is mainly seasonal, and the new loan size may be lower than the 774 billion yuan level in the same period last year.
The year-on-year growth rate of RMB loans should fall from 17.9% in March to 17.5%.
The easing of inflation and economic growth in April will help the stock market pick up, which has been reflected in last Friday's market.
However, even if inflation worries have become the past, the market will also encounter new problems.
To what extent will tightening policy affect the earnings performance of Listed Companies in the next two quarters?
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