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The RMB Has Renewed A New High &Nbsp To The Dollar; It Has Appreciated By 1.97% In The Year.

2011/5/11 17:05:00 46

On Monday, when the central parity of the RMB exchange rate broke through the 6.50 pass second degrees, the RMB exchange rate further stood at 6.4950 of the new historical highs on the 10 day. Statistics show that in the first 4 months of 2011, the RMB has appreciated 1.97%, and the appreciation rate since April has obviously increased.

Analysts pointed out that in the recent strong rebound in the dollar index, the trend of a new high Renminbi shows its active appreciation.

However, in the context of the rapid appreciation of the rhythm has been maintained for a long time, the macroeconomic disadvantage factors, the latter part of the RMB appreciation rhythm or is expected to gradually slow down.

New high offensive difficult to stop

China

foreign exchange

The central parity of RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market in May 10th was 6.4950, which was 38 basis points higher than the previous trading day, and the second consecutive trading day has hit a new high since the exchange rate reform, the trading center said on Tuesday.

Statistics show that as of May 10th, the RMB has appreciated 1.97% against the US dollar since 2011.

It is worth noting that, while the RMB exchange rate hit a new high for the second consecutive trading day, the decline in the US dollar index in the international exchange market overnight is rather limited. In the short term, the US dollar's phase rebound is still continuing.

Analysts pointed out that in the case of the dollar index continued to rebound, the first two trading days of the week

RMB rate

Continuous rewriting of new highs shows the active appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in recent stages.

At the same time, the third round of Sino US strategic and economic dialogue, which is being carried out on the other side of the ocean, has also affected the short-term performance of the RMB exchange rate to a certain extent. It is expected that the strength of the RMB exchange rate will continue in the short term.

Appreciation of the pace or slowing down

In Renminbi

exchange rate

After lifting the 6.50 barrier, the acceleration of RMB appreciation has been clearer since the two quarter.

However, in the "post 6.50 era", some of the views on the trend of the renminbi suggest that the Renminbi should be "slow down" after experiencing a rapid appreciation since the beginning of the year.

Some analysts here pointed out that since the RMB exchange rate continued to write a new high this week, we still do not rule out the possibility of "taking place". This is also just like in recent years, in the context of the continued substantial appreciation of the RMB, the US government continues to urge the renminbi to accelerate its exchange rate reform in the Sino US dialogue.

Although the accelerated appreciation of the RMB will largely alleviate imported inflation, the RMB should still adjust its pace of appreciation moderately after the 6.50 pass.

Societe Generale economist Lu commissar said that, combined with recent international counter-terrorism situation, the United States fiscal deficit and a series of factors analysis, the next period of time should still focus on the strong rebound of the dollar and the risk of mid term reversal.

On the macroeconomic fundamentals, on the 10 day, the General Administration of Customs released import and export data in April 2011, showing that the growth rate of imports and exports fell to 29.9% and 21.8% in the same month, of which export growth basically met market expectations, while import growth rate was far below market expectations.

Against this background, Lu commissar pointed out that the current accelerated appreciation of the renminbi is only a band phenomenon. It is estimated that the appreciation rate of RMB effective exchange rate will reach 3%-4% in the whole year, and the appreciation rate for the US dollar will only reach 4%-5% level.