Survey Of Cotton Producing Areas In Shandong: Small Area Still Needs Support

In 2010, domestic cotton planting area decreased significantly, cotton production decreased, production and demand gap increased, cotton prices rose sharply, and cotton farmers' income increased. What is the trend of the cotton market in 2011? Is the farmer willing to grow cotton? With these questions, the author made an investigation.

Cotton prices are up and down

Dezhou city of Shandong province is one of the key cotton producing areas in the country. The annual cotton planting area is 200-300 mu, but the area has decreased year by year in recent years. It was 2 million 890 thousand mu in 2008, 2 million 300 thousand mu in 2009, and only 1 million 550 thousand mu in 2010, the smallest area in nearly 11 years.

First textile network survey last year New cotton After the listing, affected by domestic cotton production, demand increase, supply and demand gap expansion and hot money speculation and other factors, seed cotton purchase price soared rapidly, from early September 4.20 yuan / kg, rose rapidly to 7.20 yuan / kg in early November, rose 71% in two months, double the same period in 2009, and hit the highest price in history. The sale price of lint rose rapidly from 18300 yuan / ton in early September to 32000 yuan / ton in early November, or 75%, up 128% from the same period last year.

Cotton prices began to drop sharply after November 11th. Four level at the end of November Seed cotton purchase The price dropped to 5.30 yuan / kg, the price of lint fell to 26000 yuan / ton per ton, and then slowly increased. Before the Spring Festival, the price of seed cotton rose to 6 yuan / kg, and lint was raised to 28000 yuan / ton. After the Spring Festival, domestic and foreign cotton futures prices skyrocketed, spot prices also rose sharply, seed cotton purchase price rose to 6.40 yuan in mid February, lint rose to 31000 yuan / ton. After February 20th, the price of lint and seed cotton slipped again. At present, the purchase price of seed cotton is 5.80 yuan / Jin and 28500 yuan / ton of lint.

As cotton prices are rising and falling, some cotton farmers are looking forward to selling and holding cotton for sale. Up to now, Dezhou's purchasing progress is about 80%, which is about 15% lower than in previous years, and some cotton farmers still have a lot of cotton.

Increase in cotton yields

In mid August of last year, there was a continuous high intensity rainfall and cloudy weather in Dezhou. Cotton yield And the quality has caused a great impact. The average yield per seed cotton is only 410 kg, which is more than 20% lower than that in the normal year. However, because of the higher price, the cotton farmers' income has increased.

Seed cotton income: according to the average yield of 410 Jin, the average selling price is 5.70 yuan / Jin, the output value of Mu is 2337 yuan, and the direct cost of planting is 395 yuan / mu (90 yuan for base fertilizer, 35 yuan for machine ploughing, 60 yuan for seed, 15 yuan for planting, 20 yuan for plastic film, 60 yuan for pesticide, 93 yuan for dressing, and 60 yuan for irrigation.

Grain income: according to the season of wheat and corn, the average yield of wheat is 1020 Jin, the average yield of corn is 1120 Jin, the average wheat price is 1.02 yuan / Jin, the corn is 0.96 yuan / Jin, and the output value of grain is 2115 yuan. The cost of direct planting of wheat per mu is 351 yuan per mu and corn planting cost is 298 yuan / mu. The output value of Mu is deducted from direct planting cost (excluding labor cost), plus 83 yuan per mu of grain direct subsidy and comprehensive agricultural subsidy, and the income of grain Mu is 1559 yuan.

Cotton yields more than 398 yuan per mu, but still less than other kinds of economic crops such as pepper.

Farmers' willingness to plant cotton is not high.

The income of cotton growers has increased, but cotton farmers in Dezhou have little enthusiasm for cotton planting this year.

First, the mechanized operation rate of seed cotton is low, time consuming and labor consuming. From grain to harvest and basically mechanization, grain production is greatly reduced, and the time to work outside the province is reduced. The minimum monthly income is one thousand or two thousand yuan, reaching three thousand or four thousand yuan, far more than making cotton and making money faster.

Two, though cotton prices were high in 2010, the cotton growers' hearts were also in disorder. Up to now, there are still more than 20% cotton seeds sold by cotton farmers in Xiajin and Wucheng county.

Three, the government subsidized cotton seed. Grain crops are subsidized by improved varieties, grain subsidies and comprehensive subsidies for agricultural products. The total subsidy per mu is about 98 yuan, and seed cotton is only 15 yuan per mu, and there is no comprehensive subsidy for seed cotton subsidies and agricultural subsidies.

Four, cotton is more affected by natural disasters. If there is continuous rain or waterlogging in 8 and September, the yield and quality of cotton will be greatly affected.

It is time consuming, relatively low efficiency, and the diversification of the farmers' way to earn money, which makes the farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting more and more low. According to the Dezhou Cotton Association survey, although the price of seed cotton has hit a record high last year, the cotton planting area in Dezhou is basically the same as last year, which is at its lowest level in nearly ten years.

The state establishes the minimum protective price {page_break}

According to China's first textile network, 2010 cotton prices have affected the cotton growers' enthusiasm for planting. In order to stabilize cotton production, protect cotton farmers' interests and ensure market supply, in March 30th, the state promulgated the plan for temporary storage and storage of cotton in 2011. From September 1st to March 31st next year, cotton temporary storage and storage system will be implemented in 13 main cotton producing areas such as Xinjiang and Shandong. The minimum price of standard grade lint is 19800 yuan per ton. According to the cotton association of Dezhou, the minimum purchase and storage price of 19800 yuan per ton is converted to the lowest purchase price of seed cotton, which is about 4.50 yuan / kg. According to the average annual yield of 510 kg of seed cotton, the seed cotton yield is more than 340 yuan per mu. However, when it is time and cost to plant cotton, it is better to save grain than to grow grain, and not to get higher income from economic crops such as chili peppers.

According to the first textile network survey, although cotton has a bottom purchase price, cotton farmers feel steadfast, but the 19800 yuan / ton storage price is lower than the current market price by 8000 yuan, the seed cotton 4.5 yuan / kg lowest price is also lower than the current market price 1.30 yuan, and the cotton field area is generally reserved for years ago, so the temporary purchase and storage policy has little impact on cotton production this year, the cotton field area is significantly less likely to increase.

Cotton industry still needs support

Cotton is an important cash crop. It is a major agricultural product after grain and is also the main raw material of the textile industry. At present, China has become the largest cotton producer and consumer in the world. Cotton accounts for 35% of the world's total output, and consumption accounts for 46%. There are about 40000000 cotton farmers in the country, 140 million cotton farmers, about 20000000 textile workers, and the output value exceeds 100 billion yuan, and cotton is the main source of income for farmers in cotton growing areas.

Shandong province is not only a large province of production, but also a large province of cotton. In recent years, the area of cotton has been maintained at about 12 million mu, and its total output is about 1 million tons, second only to Xinjiang, ranking second in the country. 569 cotton processing and processing enterprises, 5394 textile and garment enterprises above Designated Size, 3000 spindles, about 4500000 tons of cotton per year, and 1/4 of the country's yarn, ranking first in the country.

Dezhou is a traditional cotton producing area, and the soil and climate are suitable for planting cotton. Over the years, farmers have accumulated rich experience in planting cotton, and planting large varieties of good varieties, increasing yield per unit area. The highest plot per mu of seed cotton reaches more than 700 Jin. At present, there are more than 200 cotton processing and purchasing enterprises in the city, with 415 Textile Enterprises above Designated Size and 5 million spinning capacity, and the capacity is 1/7 of the whole province and 1/20 of the whole country. Dezhou uses about 500 thousand tons of cotton per year, while the actual cotton output is less than 200 thousand tons, and the cotton self sufficiency rate is only about 1/3. Nearly 800 thousand farmers in the city are engaged in cotton production, and 150 thousand of them are engaged in cotton processing, circulation and textile industry. Cotton industry is one of the important pillar industries in the whole city.

According to the China Cotton Association survey, although the price of cotton has risen all the way in 2010, and the state has introduced the lowest protective price, the cotton planting area in the whole country is expected to grow by only about 5% in 2011 due to the time-consuming and inefficient benefits of cotton planting. According to the survey, the cotton planting area in Shandong province will drop by 0.6% in 2011 compared with the same period.

In recent years, the output of cotton in China is 600-700 million tons, and the gap between production and demand is 300-400 tons. The contradiction between insufficient production and long-term demand will exist for a long time, and cotton prices will be running at a high level.

In the face of the fact that cotton planting is less efficient and farmers have less willingness to plant cotton, where will the cotton industry go in the future? Industry experts believe that only by raising the comparative advantages of cotton planting can farmers really get tangible benefits in order to stimulate cotton farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton and expand their planting area, and suggest that cotton farmers can increase their cotton area appropriately.

First of all, policy support should be strengthened. At present, the policy support for planting cotton is only limited to good seed subsidies, and only 15 yuan per mu, which has little attraction for farmers. The state should introduce Cotton Subsidy in light of the grain subsidy method, increase the comprehensive subsidy for planting cotton, and introduce preferential policies to support the development of cotton professional cooperatives; arrange special funds every year to establish high-quality cotton base counties in the main cotton producing areas.

Secondly, the relevant government departments should attach importance to cotton as much as grain and provide cotton farmers with timely information on supply and demand and advanced planting techniques. We should popularize science and technology to promote cotton, scientifically control insects, and implement joint prevention and treatment. According to the insect pest situation, we should uniformly spray time and use drugs uniformly, reduce the cost of pest control, and improve the efficiency of insect control. We should encourage farmers to grow in scale through land circulation and other ways, and properly guide farmers to expand the area of cotton fields appropriately and promote the healthy development of China's cotton industry.