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Demand Side Starts PTA Or Goes Strong Again

2011/5/20 11:55:00 56

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Commodities have been sharply callback since mid February. It should be said that the reason for this decline is more from the tightening of macroeconomic policies, and the negative supply and demand side of commodities is secondary contradiction.

As far as PTA is concerned, no new capacity has yet been launched since the beginning of this year, but downstream

polyester

In the second half of 2010 and the two quarter of 2011, production capacity increased significantly, and the situation of May was favorable for the long term.

Looking ahead, with the support of the seasonal rise of crude oil, PTA will start to strengthen the demand side again.

Seasonal demand law supports crude oil

Macroeconomics determines the general direction of commodities, and the impact of monetary policy is more direct.

Since last October, under the two major tasks of real estate regulation and stabilizing prices, the domestic tightening atmosphere has become more intense.

Behind the tight liquidity, investors see that inflation figures are still high, and that regulatory expectations have not changed a bit, and market pressures have intensified.

However, the other three of the world's four largest economies remain slightly slack.

Federal Reserve Bernanke said that the current economic situation can not provide a justification for raising interest rates.

At present, the unemployment rate in the United States is still up to 9%, the core.

CPI

Still low, the latest data show that the number of new housing starts in April dropped by 10.6%.

The US economy is better than last year, but its degree still does not support monetary tightening.

At the same time, the debt problem of the eurozone has kept the interest rate unchanged at the highest level of inflation for 30 months. Japan has been pouring money into the market because of the post earthquake reconstruction.

Next, look at the source of chemicals.

Downstream products of crude oil are in demand and

Stock

There is a certain regularity in the trend, which will experience the peak season and low season of consumption and production in a year.

Gasoline is the largest consumption of petroleum products. The consumption of gasoline has a strong seasonal character. Gasoline consumption in January and February reached the bottom of the valley, and began to pick up in March. The consumption of gasoline in June increased faster and reached the peak in August or September.

After that, with the end of the driving season, the consumption of gasoline will return to a relatively low level. At the present stage, the consumption of gasoline will gradually rise.

In the last two weeks, the demand for energy data released by the US Department of energy declined sharply, not due to the downturn in consumption, but because the US floods affected the pportation of oil products from refineries to consumer sites.

At the same time, China's consumption also rose steadily. In the first quarter, China's crude oil demand was 9 million 240 thousand barrels per day, up 8% over the same period last year.

China's crude oil consumption will remain high in the two quarter, thanks to the use of oil for drought relief and the huge number of car bases.

Strong demand is the biggest support for crude oil, and crude oil will remain strong in the medium term.

Terminal inventory pressure gradually released

PTA's industrial chain is relatively long, from crude oil to naphtha, and then to PX polymerization to generate PTA, the downstream is polyester, the terminal is textile and clothing.

Looking at the industrial chain, short-term profits remain, but in the context of economic growth, the pick-up in textile and garment industry will boost PTA.

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First, look at the upstream raw material PX.

There are two processes for PX production. The old refinery refines PX from MX, and the new integrated refinery directly cleavages PX from naphtha. The cost accounting of the former looks at the difference between PX and MX, while the latter depends on the difference between ethylene and naphtha, because more than 80% of the products of the integrated device are ethylene.

At this stage, the two production processes all have four or five consecutive months of high profit, which has directly led to the improvement of the start-up rate of petrochemical enterprises. In addition to the introduction of two new sets of capacity in South Korea and Urumqi in the first quarter, the adjustment of PX will continue.

At present, the cost of spot PX corresponding to PTA is 8950 yuan / ton.

Look at the downstream situation.

It is widely expected that the new capacity of polyester will reach 5 million 500 thousand tons in 2011, and the increment in the first half will exceed 2 million 500 thousand tons.

The actual situation is that in the context of continued tightening of capital and sharp drop in production profits, polyester production capacity will only increase by 135 to 1 million 500 thousand tons in the one or two quarter.

At the same time, because of the high price of raw materials, the terminal textile and garment has been exported to a relatively low level. The demand for polyester has decreased and its stock has increased.

At present, polyester enterprises and terminal textile enterprises still have some stocks, and there is about a month's digestion time.

The key to the trend of PTA in the future is the improvement of textile and garment exports.

From the perspective of the author's spot business investigation, the order of textile enterprises in the beginning of the year is mostly short, and the total amount is small.

At the same time, textile enterprises said that the end of May to early June China will usher in a large number of orders in Europe and the United States.

This time node is the deadline for Easter and Christmas purchases in European and American countries.

For the replacement of textile exports in Southeast Asia, the industry generally said that China's textile technology and total quantity has not yet been replaced by the state.

From the PTA industry chain nearly a week's situation, PX began to accelerate decline, and because the difference between ethylene and naphtha, the difference between MX and PX has not fallen to the bottom of previous years, PX still has callback space; downstream polyester stock has not continued to rise, nearly a week's production and marketing is near 100%; in the case of polyester stock high volatility, polyester operation rate unchanged, the terminal loom operation rate steadily moved up, the week increased by 1 percentage points.