State Grid: The Worst Electric Disaster This Summer

"This year is the most intense year in terms of power supply and demand in recent years, and the total electricity gap may exceed the worst in 2004."

The state grid supplies power to 26 provinces.

The central enterprise promised 23 days that it would take measures to "give priority to ensuring the consumption of important users, such as residents' lives, hospitals, schools and other public interests and national security".

Shujun Jun predicted that the 10 provincial power grids, such as Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hunan, Henan, Jiangxi and Chongqing, will have a tight supply and demand situation.

Shuai Junqing analyzed the reasons for the power shortage from the past.

Since the beginning of this year, there has been a large-scale disconnection of 4 wind farms.

Tan Rongyao, director general of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, said that in June, the country will enter the peak of electricity consumption. The peak power gap is expected to reach 30 million kilowatts in the peak period.

He disclosed that from 1 to April, the situation of power restriction in some areas was serious, and there was a lack of coal in some places. The biggest coal shortage in China was 9 million 800 thousand kilowatts, which is equivalent to a Chongqing installed capacity.

However, in terms of installed capacity, the "electricity shortage" is not a "hard electricity shortage", not a lack of power investment.

Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economics Research Center of Xiamen University, said that if there was electricity shortage in the off-season, there must be electricity shortage in the busy season, but the government could not do nothing. It is expected that there will be no large-scale electricity shortage this year.

Under the condition that the total installed capacity of electric power is generally sufficient, only by thinking of ways to increase the profits of power generation enterprises and increase the capacity of electric coal, the power shortage can be basically solved.

"Taking into account the high inflation factor, it is very likely that the government will coordinate the various sides of the power industry chain so that we can share the pressure. Coal, power plants and power grids will take a step back, the price of coal will be a little bit higher, the electricity price will be raised a bit higher, and then we will discuss the issue of marketization."

Lin Boqiang said.

But if the large-scale electricity shortage really breaks out, it will seriously restrict industrial production and push up inflation.

Nie Wen, a macro analyst at Warburg trust, said that if the electricity shortage is more serious, it is likely that the electricity price will be slightly increased. "It is possible to implement ladder pricing, or to re regulate the electricity price after the peak of CPI in June."

Citigroup also believes that raising electricity prices is the only way to resolve the power shortage. It is expected that China will raise the price of residential and industrial electricity in the second half of the year after the peak of inflation. "The terminal sales price is expected to increase by 4%, so that the ratio of coal and electricity prices will remain at the level of 2010. If the auxiliary electricity price is increased by 4-5%, it will help the thermal power enterprises to break even."

As for the economic impact of the electricity shortage, the China International Capital Co report is different from the general public.

CICC said that the economic shortage of the two quarter and the second half of the year is not enough to become a "bottleneck".

There are three reasons for this. First, the current generation capacity of China can meet the current demand for electricity. Second, there is no sign of overall tension in coal electricity and oil pportation. Enterprises have not yet appeared to be serious in limiting production because of lack of electricity. Third, the slowdown in economic growth in the short term will help to alleviate the shortage of electricity.

CICC reported that in January of this year, -4 supply side and demand side showed signs of obvious slowdown, excess capacity was not digested, and enterprises were in the process of de stocking, and economic fundamentals did not constitute a significant increase in demand for electricity support.

However, the report believes that the current electricity shortage has a greater impact on labor-intensive SMEs.