The Window Of Oil Price Reduction Opens?

In April 6th, Modify price The base period is weighted by Brent, Dubai and Xin TA three places in 22 consecutive working days. crude oil The average price change rate is 2.65%, and there is still a long way to go from the negative 4% to the "red line".

In May 23rd, reporters learned from a number of refined oil information institutions that the change in international oil prices fell further from the previous week, which has dropped to 2% from the original 6.5% of the price adjustment red line, and there is still a possibility of further reduction. This change not only closed down the price window of refined oil, but also led to the expected reduction of refined oil in the market.

In response, relevant analysts said yesterday in an interview with reporters that they did not rule out the possibility of "window" opening of refined oil prices. At the same time, international oil prices also seemed to match China's refined oil price expectations yesterday. As of press release, the market "wind vane" - New York crude oil futures price fell more than 2%, and fell below 98 U.S. dollars / barrel.

Price: down or unchanged?

Just as the market expects the NDRC to raise the price of refined oil for the fourth time, there is an "accident" in international oil prices. Since last week, the crude oil price in New York has dropped to nearly 100 dollars / barrel from nearly 120 US dollars per barrel, and the price window of refined oil has been closed in the middle of last week.

To this, Han Jingyuan, an analyst with the bulk product e-commerce platform, said to reporters, "we can understand consumers' desire for the reduction of refined oil prices. But the actual situation is that the domestic refined oil price reduction needs to meet two conditions: one is 22 days, this has already reached; two is the international oil price change range is negative 4%, this condition is not satisfied. According to the statistical data of May 23rd, the oil Information Institute of Dubai, as the benchmark price adjustment period, the average change rate of weighted crude oil price in Brent, Dubai and Xin TA three places was 2.65% in the 22 consecutive working days, which is still a long way from the negative 4% reduction of the "red line".

Han Jingyuan told reporters: "the international oil price change is still above 2%, which means that if the domestic finished oil prices should be lowered, referring to the change value of 4%, then in the next more than 20 working days or longer working days, international oil prices must be maintained below 105 US dollars / barrel. Judging from the recent ups and downs of international oil prices, we can not completely exclude the possibility of future price cuts. "

Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economics Research Center of Xiamen University, believes that the possibility of domestic refined oil price reduction is "almost nothing". "On the one hand, there are indications that international oil prices have reached the bottom, bottoming out, returning to the top of 100 US dollars / barrel or even 110 US dollars / barrel, which is just around the corner. On the other hand, when the first two price adjustments were made this year, the NDRC took into account the various factors that had not been fully adjusted. He said, "therefore, even if the international oil price changed by 4% in June, the NDRC's most likely move is to stay put."

Supply: the tension remains.

But the market is expected to have a strong price cut. "Due to the weakening trend of crude oil, the domestic gasoline and diesel market is short of guidance in the short term, and the market is hard to achieve effective breakthroughs. This week, the prices of main units in various regions remain stable and falling." Yesterday, the insider information released by "treasure island" to the "International Financial Daily" said: "near the end of the month, most of the main units in this area are not optimistic about the sales plan this month. This week or continue to promote sales, the price of gasoline and diesel is hard to be effectively supported, and it is expected that it will further loosen up, so that it will be clear and steady. On the whole, the short-term trading situation is difficult to improve, and the market will continue to be light. Data show that gasoline prices have plummeted in Southern China and East China last week, and diesel prices also fell slightly.

Then, will the light Market ease the oil price shortage in the market before? In this regard, Han Jingyuan told reporters that "the current light market can not ease the tight supply of diesel oil, and the situation will also become an important theme throughout the market throughout the year."

She further analyzed, "the reason is, on the one hand," Electricity shortage The oil consumption in the industries such as agriculture and fishery will lead to high demand for diesel oil. On the other hand, after entering June and July, the petrochemical "double male" will enter a large-scale overhaul period, and the supply will be relatively reduced. The contrast between supply and demand will keep the tight supply of diesel in the market. However, the NDRC issued the notice in May 14th, making clear demands for maintaining high load operation and strengthening import and export regulation.