Cotton Is Killing &Nbsp In Space; Industry Giants Are Buying More.

Market Review

Fig. 1 contract diagram of Zheng Mian 1109

While the price of zhengmian 1109 continued to be weak, trading volume and positions both hit a new high.

At present, there are huge differences between the two sides.

In the week beginning in May 9th, the period cotton was low and high, and a large number of people entered the stadium.

This week, it was high and low, empty admission.

Both temptation and market quotation arise.

From the main position, in May 10th, Zheng cotton's main contract 1109 was the lowest of 24250 yuan, and the position of Zhejiang Yongan in this contract suddenly turned into a net list from nearly 10 thousand sheets. After that, Yongan's funds seemed to show a more stable mood, and in May 16th, the net number reached more than 14756 times.

In short, from the technical aspect, there are signs that the previous market has the end of the market.

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Figure 2 US cotton 07 month contract chart

And from

US cotton 07 month contract pays attention to 155 support. If we continue to stand firm 159 above, we may further test 170 of the pressure, but right.

Two. Fundamental analysis

In May 11th, the US Department of Agriculture released the latest issue of the world.

The US Department of agriculture forecast most of the data is expected, but compared with the previous prediction, the larger change is the US output.

In the case of a 15% increase in planting area, the output of US cotton is down by 20 thousand tons from 3 million 940 thousand tons last year to 3 million 920 thousand tons, mainly due to bad weather during the sowing period, severe drought in Texas and Georgia, the first and second largest cotton producing areas in the United States, and the flooding in the Mississippi River area also affects the output of cotton.

In April 2011, China's imports of cotton decreased again, and imported 210 thousand tons in that month, a decrease of 66 thousand tons compared with March, a decrease of 23.9%, a decrease of 35% over the same period last year. In the first 4 months of 2011, the total import of cotton was 1 million 60 thousand tons, a decrease of 9.2% over the same period last year, while 1 million 950 thousand tons in the first 8 months of 2010 years, an increase of 13.2% over the same period last year.

From 4 to May, cotton imports tended to peak in the past year, but this year showed a marked trend of high before and after low. This is mainly due to the long-term upside down of domestic and foreign cotton, and the price of foreign cotton has been significantly higher than domestic cotton prices. Under such circumstances, domestic enthusiasm for imports is very low, and the cotton flower currently arriving in Hong Kong is mainly based on contracts signed years ago.

As the situation of internal and external cotton upside down has not changed, it is foreseeable that the volume of imports will continue to decline in the four months after this year, and the total import volume this year is likely to be lower than that of last year.

As the apparent gap in the country is close to 4 million tons this year, insufficient imports will definitely affect the supply and demand at the end of the year, thus raising the price of cotton.

Three, outlook for the future

In the current 24000-26000 interval price quotes, there are indications that some industry giants including China spinning and China cotton have begun to buy more orders.

The price of cotton futures may be bottomed out at about 24200, but the demand for spot market is in the doldrums of late or restricted cotton prices.

In short, in this round of hard fighting stage, investors are advised to wait and see until the market becomes clear.

Aggressive investors can buy more light stocks, and prudent investors can wait for the end of this wave of fighting.