Cotton Surges 1St Anniversary &Nbsp; Textile Enterprises Are Dying.

In mid May, the Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, from cotton delivery warehouse to cotton spinning factory, was filled with the smell of Chen cotton.

"We are now losing a lot of money, but we are afraid of a dead end."

The head of a textile enterprise is worried.

At this moment, cotton fell 30% from the top of the mad cow. Most of the small and medium-sized textile enterprises were in a predicament because of high inventory accumulation and lack of downstream orders.

Reporters can not recall that in 2010, a textile worker's work scene was photographed at a textile factory in North China: cotton prices soared, and the textile industry was in the spring of ten years hard to meet, a thriving image.

In the past year, cotton has been asked from a few people.

Futures Company stakeholders told reporters that compared with the non-ferrous metal companies that have been immersed in the futures market for many years, the hedging of textile enterprises has received many lessons in this unprecedented wave of commodities.

reality

As the largest logistics distribution center for bulk commodities in the Yangtze River Delta region, there are a large number of Zhangjiagang bonded areas every day.

Previously, reporters did not expect to unveil the "wounds" of textile enterprises.

Because in the past year, cotton and cotton yarns are really too hot.

In August 2010, a vice president of a textile enterprise in East China told reporters that "from 09 to September, the price of cotton and yarn has been rising. The market of textile enterprises has been very good. For some time, enterprises have even taken the initiative to raise prices for cotton yarn, which has not been seen in the past ten years. It belongs to an abnormal year."

With a phrase "thirty years Hedong, thirty years Hexi" to describe last year and this year's textile enterprises, perhaps some cruel.

But in the course of the inspection, the reporter heard the most is "this year's textile enterprise's life is not good."

In Zhangjiagang bonded area textile raw material industry chain research conference, many textile enterprises responsible person said that cotton prices rose from 9000 yuan in 2009 to 35000 yuan in February this year, and then fell from 35000 yuan to 25000 yuan.

According to a group of agricultural products (000061) inspecting by Xin Hu futures in Jiangsu, it is revealed to reporters that about 30%-40% of small and medium-sized textile enterprises have been closed.

"Now we are losing money and losing our way.

Last year, the economic efficiency of the company was over 20%, and this year's economic benefits are zero.

A person in charge of textile enterprises who did not want to be named told reporters that "enterprises with economic strength can still support for a period of time, but small businesses without strength are bound to die."

Jiangsu Tian Ba group executive vice president Liu Shi Bo reluctantly regrets, "most textile enterprises can not go on, if the market does not improve in June, small businesses will not be able to endure."

He said that when the company started construction in March, business owners were very happy, but because of the lack of orders, insufficient funds and the sharp fall in cotton prices, the textile enterprises could not bear the high price of labour in the Yangtze River Delta region, especially in Suzhou.

"The days of textile enterprises are not very good now. Recently, textile enterprises in Heze are short of liquid capital and take up less and less goods. This market will continue for a long time.

Enterprises with larger scale will either spin or limit production.

And there is also a recent holiday forecast. The end of May and the beginning of June are the busy season.

Zawa Hirohito Industrial Development Co., Ltd. Zhang Huaiji also told reporters.

In May 26th, a Galaxy Hotel Summit on cotton spinning and weaving was held in Shanghai Galaxy Hotel, which is hundreds of miles away from Zhangjiagang.

Business representatives from all over the country are almost at the meeting. They are asking the same question: "what do you think of cotton?" and the answer is basically "not to say clearly, but not to see clearly."

A textile enterprise leader from Shijiazhuang, Hebei just arrived at Hongqiao airport and complained to reporters about the industry's dilemma.

"Shortage of funds, inventory accumulation for 2 months, and even some large businesses took the opportunity to malicious disk."

This person in charge said, fortunately, at the beginning of the year, "what orders are answered, what price is done?"

For some small and medium-sized enterprises, if the cotton price will rise at the beginning, for some low order orders, they will not take the initiative to pick up the stock and keep the high priced stocks.

Reason

Three factors cause textile enterprises to be injured.

Cotton is the raw material of textile enterprises. Shouldn't the raw material fall into a good way? Why would it cause a major loss for the enterprises?

"This is actually a misunderstanding," said Dong Shuzhi, manager of the cotton business department of Peking University Founder products group. Cotton starts from raw materials, first goes to cotton yarn, then goes to fabric, and then goes to the garment enterprises by printing and dyeing. Therefore, the textile industry is a "middle" industry.

As soon as we see the price of Cotton falling in the downstream, we will reduce the order for the upstream enterprises because of the "crowd mentality" of "buying up or not buying".

But the textile industry is also out of this mentality, will reduce the demand for cotton, resulting in cotton prices continue to decline, the wait-and-see sentiment of the downstream enterprises is more concentrated, so it will produce a "price cycle".

According to Liu Shibo, the company purchased 10 thousand tons of cotton last year, but this year it did not purchase.

Some people say, do not know whether the cotton will fall later; others say that enterprises seem to be brewing a collective bottom, when the influx of capital will raise cotton prices.

But everything is just speculation.

There are three reasons for the current predicament.

{page_break}

First is the failure of raw material procurement.

"When the price of cotton rose in the early period, the enterprise was worried about a large number of cotton buying because of the shortage of raw materials," Liu Shibo said, the average cost of the purchase could be over 26000 yuan / ton, and the price of cotton fell below 26000 yuan, the value of raw materials has shrunk, and the enterprise has a loss.

In addition, because of the high price of raw materials, a large number of enterprises have taken up huge funds, so the capital turnover is in trouble.

Zhang Huaiji also told reporters, "textile enterprises most of the early stock has been consumed, very few part of the pre inventory, at that time the cost of 26000 yuan / ton.

According to the current cotton cost calculation, textile enterprises are only able to pay wages and electricity charges, and basically maintain balance and no profit.

In fact, the fluctuation of cotton prices is also counteracted by the price of downstream cotton yarn.

The price of cotton yarn has also dropped by more than 10 thousand yuan over the highest point, and its fluctuation range is more than that of cotton price.

Second, the huge inventory is overburdened.

According to the Research Report of a large and medium-sized textile enterprise in an authoritative organization, the cotton inventory and cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises dropped slightly from last month (cotton inventory dropped from 61.9 days to 57.3 days, cotton yarn inventory dropped from 49.6 days to 44.3 days) in May this year.

The profit of cotton yarn production is from 169 yuan per ton to 286 yuan per ton, and some small factories are closed.

In terms of cotton varieties, the utilization rate of cotton was greatly reduced, from 36.5% to 19.3%, and the utilization rate of Xinjiang cotton and real estate cotton increased, indicating that the downstream consumption was not strong enough to make cotton yarn factories reluctant to use relatively expensive cotton instead of cheaper domestic cotton.

Third is tightening policy.

Xiao Jingyao, vice president of Huafang group, said that the current tightening monetary policy of the state also has a greater impact on textile enterprises.

Under the pressure of policy, cotton prices have dropped and profits have declined.

In addition, the central bank constantly suppressed inflation by raising interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio, which also led to a shortage of credit funds for enterprises.

"Today's monetary policy is like" chemotherapy ". Every time the country raises the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 basis points, it will enlarge more than 8 times for the enterprise.

Therefore, tightening monetary policy has a greater impact on textile enterprises.

Zhang Huaiji said,

Enterprises can not reduce production or stop production without restraint.

Although not profitable, the textile enterprises are still producing, mainly in order to keep the workers. Besides, if the machine stays stagnant for a long time, it will cause great damage.

Therefore, the fate of textile enterprises has been closely linked with the cotton market.

Once a mad cow, a good day is hard to come back.

"At the beginning of the year, Futures Company also urged us to do more, saying that we should go up to 50 thousand."

This is a complaint made by a textile enterprise owner to reporters. His face is written with melancholy and helplessness.

This is the market mentality of cotton at the height of the climax.

Since 2009, cotton has stepped into a rising channel, and 9000 yuan of cotton has risen to 35000 yuan.

And cotton really started the mad bull market, almost in June last year.

Just when the industry thinks cotton price can rise to 17000 yuan or so, it is already "high and cold". The real big market suddenly starts, regardless of the volume or price has risen sharply. Under the double promotion of fundamentals and funds, cotton futures have become one of the leading commodities bull market in 2010.

At the same time, the yarn price also rises along with the cotton price, and the yarn price rises higher than the cotton price.

Driven by this, the sales profit margin of textile industry has reached a new high since March 2006.

In terms of gross profit margin, both textile and downstream textile, clothing, footwear and hat manufacturing industries are located on the average of nearly 10 years.

With the recovery of textile market demand in the lower reaches, the price of cotton yarn has risen sharply with the rise of cotton prices, and the performance of the listed companies related to cotton textile industry has been quite brilliant in the past 2010 years.

Huafang textile (600273), Huafu color spinning (002042) and other A shares listed companies in the textile industry's annual reports are quite beautiful.

Huafu color spinning said, "because of its short industrial chain, the cost pfer capability is strong.

Since 2010, the price of cotton has increased by more than 100%, and the average yarn product has increased by 80%.

"Last year was indeed a good opportunity to invest in textile stocks."

Dong Shuzhi, manager of the cotton business department of Peking University Founder group, said.

In the second half of last year, cotton business inventories were very low, because the reduction of cotton growing area, bad weather and consumption warming caused the consumption gap to expand.

Low inventory is difficult to meet the cotton demand of enterprises, and the expansion of enterprise demand has raised cotton prices. The rise of cotton prices has led to the rise of yarn prices. This is the reason why 09-10 cotton prices and yarn prices interact more strongly.

At the end of August 2010, Liu Zhongceng, vice president of Henan China Industrial (Group) Limited by Share Ltd, told reporters: "at present, the company's operating rate is 100%, the downstream is patency, product sales are fast, and finished product inventory is less than 10 days."

Analysts told reporters that in recent years, a rare supply gap has driven domestic and foreign cotton prices in a typical bull market, which has led to the 2009-2010 cotton trade and textile industry flourishing in recent years.

Because of the time effect of price pmission and the acceptance degree of the industry chain to price, the trade and textile industry in the upstream of the industrial chain benefit significantly from the current cotton bull market, while the downstream weaving and textile clothing industry is in the average level in recent years.

With the price rising, cotton futures industry has become a star of the futures industry.

The Zhengzhou mercantile exchange for cotton trade has become the largest commodity exchange in China.

The pattern of China's futures industry has changed dramatically because of cotton.

In the three months from the end of February to the end of May, the total turnover of Zhengshang has been pushed back to the old Shanghai futures exchange.

What is more, on some trading days, the turnover of cotton alone accounts for nearly 4 of the total turnover of commodity futures.

In April 7th, for example, the turnover of cotton on that day was 272 billion 570 million yuan, while the daily turnover of the Shanghai futures exchange was only 187 billion 500 million yuan. The daily turnover of the Dalian commodity exchange was only 95 billion 500 million yuan, that is to say, a cotton fell to the entire Shanghai futures market, and it was almost the sum of the Shanghai and Dalian markets.

Not only domestic, but also a magnificent scene.

US cotton rose all the way from 80 cents last June to 219.7 cents, or more than 170%.

"Domestic cotton textile enterprises are not well prepared before the sudden big market," Lim Chao, an analyst at new lake futures, told reporters. Because cotton futures are not long in China, they have been the trend of swallowing water for a few years. Therefore, the training of enterprises in hedging is not enough, which is not equal to the mature operation of non-ferrous metals and oil companies in futures.

The whole industry's unfamiliar with futures tools has also led to the sharp rise and fall of prices, triggering a drastic change in the industry environment.

Lesson textile enterprises urgently need to make up lessons and hedge.

Hedging refers to taking futures market as a place to pfer price risk, making use of futures contracts as a temporary substitute for buying and selling commodities in the spot market in the future, and selling the commodities after they are ready to buy, or making insurance on the prices of goods that need to be bought in the future.

For example, a farmer in order to reduce the risk of crop price reduction at harvest time, he will sell the harvested crops at a fixed price before harvest.

The role of futures market is to reduce the impact of price surging and slump on the normal operation of enterprises.

And some cotton textile enterprises also feel that futures prices are important. Nowadays, every enterprise will refer to the cotton price in Zhengzhou.

In this survey, the reporter noticed that traders and downstream enterprises were more sure about the introduction of cotton and PTA futures. The function of futures price discovery is outstanding, which guides the direction of the spot market change. Traders' quotation often refers to the trend of futures.

The prices of textile raw materials and products fluctuate drastically, and spot businesses and traders can only stabilize their operations by making good use of futures risk management tools.

But at the operational level, enterprises obviously need to improve.

Some enterprises attribute the hedging disadvantage to Futures Company's "Huai", which also shows that these enterprises have not set up their own set of insurance concepts and set up insurance teams.

A textile enterprise owner frankly, at present, domestic textile enterprises do not really have the significance of hedging.

Although domestic enterprises are very immature in the practice of hedging operations, they also have less understanding of hedging, but they also prefer to deal with those who are good at preserving foreign trade in actual trade.

"The real sense of the enterprise is that the supply of Louis Dreyfus, the world's third largest grain exporter, is relatively stable because its operation in the futures market is very mature, and the India commodity traders who do not make futures are often asked questions," said a business owner. "From the perspective of foreign businessmen, we can see the importance of futures."

{page_break}

Insiders said that in the non-ferrous metal industry and oil and oil industry, major enterprises have a large number of talents and experience reserves in their hedging operations.

For example, COFCO's operation on hedging has been quite successful.

After experiencing such a big market, cotton textile enterprises should gradually understand the "doorway" of futures.

"Even after a period of time, cotton prices have gone up again, and the industry crisis has been solved, but this course of futures must be learned."

The prospect is most pessimistic or past.

Pessimism is spreading at the prospect of the textile industry.

"According to the current external market situation, it may be difficult for textile enterprises to see hope within two or three years."

Liu Shibo, Jiangsu Tian Ba group, said.

However, many industry experts believe that although domestic textile enterprises are facing bottlenecks, they are not overly pessimistic.

Xu Yu, an analyst with Nanxian futures, said that the tightening of domestic monetary policy and the appreciation of the renminbi had a negative effect on the overall operation of the textile industry. The high price drop of textile raw materials also shook market confidence, but the textile industry in China still has an unretable position in the world.

It is reported that the 109th Canton Fair export turnover of US $36 billion 860 million, an increase of 5.8%.

Reporters learned that the order of some large textile enterprises did not appear sharply reduced.

Xiao Jingyao, a Huafang group, said, "many orders have been received recently, and orders are relatively stable.

However, this year's export orders have been reduced, but they will not suddenly disappear. In the short term, China's textile foreign trade status can not be replaced. "

Dong Shuzhi told reporters that the operating rate of large and medium-sized textile enterprises in May increased from 86.9% to 95.3%, indicating that the increase in orders received by large and medium-sized textile enterprises may be related to the holding of the Canton Fair.

However, as the textile enterprises in the Canton Fair are mainly short sellers and do not dare to take long orders, the increase in operating rates is likely to be short-lived.

Some people in the industry also believe that the price of cotton will be stabilized after a continuous decline.

Fellow traders also expressed good prospects for the cotton market, indicating that the company had plans to take orders on the September contract.

"Although the overall inventory is relatively high, the supply of high-grade cotton is still tight, coupled with the support of the state's purchase and storage price, some cotton traders believe that the price of 24000 yuan / ton of cotton has certain safety margin and low position is reluctant to sell."

Xu Yu said.

In fact, the price of cotton futures has shown signs of stabilization in the near future.

Because of the warming of the "weather market" of agricultural products, the futures prices of the whole agricultural sector have been warming up, and the cotton prices in the early stage have also rebounded. The price of the main cotton contract in Zhengzhou has returned to more than 26000 yuan.

Perhaps in a short period of time, cotton textile enterprises can "breathe".

Under heavy pressure, Liu Shibo believes that for textile enterprises, timely realization of industrial pformation and upgrading is the key.

Regarding the pfer of enterprises, Liu said that the pfer of labor and land into the region has been considered. However, because of the p provincial investment problem, enterprises are still worried.

Most of the enterprises believe that they are able to communicate with the government in a timely manner and are more convenient in handling local affairs. Therefore, the feasibility of the pfer of enterprises needs to be seriously considered.

More people in the industry suggested that the textile industry needed to improve competitiveness.

Liu said that the loss of orders reflected at present is only a representation. The most fundamental reason is that the technical content of the textile industry is low, so the entry threshold is low, and small enterprises are particularly vulnerable to be eliminated when there is a big market fluctuation.

Reporter survey noted that on the other side of the industry, a new phenomenon is also germinating.

When cotton prices are high, enterprises choose to replace textiles with one material instead of cotton in order to save costs.

And this material is PTA.

The downstream extension products of PTA are mainly polyester fibers, commonly known as polyester fibers.

Polyester is the main raw material of the textile industry. Cotton yarn generally accounts for 60% of the textile materials, and polyester takes up 30-35%. However, the consumption of the two is replaced by the price change.

The data show that the ratio of cotton distribution in May 2011 has dropped significantly from 81.5% to 73.1%. This change is astonishing, indicating that the substitution of chemical fiber and other textile materials to cotton increased.

"At present, the blended products in the textile products are all red, but cotton spinning products are obviously not.

When the price of cotton is too high, some PTA substitutes can be mixed, and the price of raw materials will be controlled.

Insiders told reporters.