Bad Luck Is Gathering &Nbsp; PTA Uplink Pressure Increases.

With the continuous tightening of domestic policies and the expected oversupply of PTA, PTA has interpreted the unilateral decline since February. In the middle of May, the domestic PTA price dropped slightly to the bottom of the 9500 line, showing signs of a weak rebound.

Technically, we think it is PTA continuity. Fall After the technical rebound, its rebound is highly limited, and the integer point above 10000 points has great resistance. From the basic point of view, the recent PTA downstream polyester fiber Filament Market The sales situation is relatively good, the market quotation rises or falls little, the price transaction center of gravity moves upward steadily, and the earlier high inventory is also digested to a certain extent. For the production of polyester filament, the market is dominated by wait-and-see. The steady growth of filament sales situation is just a matter of riding on the dust and can not change the weakness of the whole polyester industry. Although PTA has stabilized slightly in recent years, from the macro and industrial perspective, we are still not optimistic about PTA, and the upward pressure on PTA is increasing. It is not possible to break the 9500 line and create a new low in the year.

The macro situation is grim. Commodity uplink Pressure increase

For the current and future macro situation, we remain cautious. The main reason is that the overall macro level is not good enough. Externally, the US economic growth has begun to slow down under the diminishing marginal effect of QE2. The US employment index for May has declined for second consecutive months. Under the background of the two real estate market and the obvious slowing down of the manufacturing industry, the US labor market is hard to recover effectively. The US stock market and the US dollar index continued to slide in recent days, showing the market's doubts about the US economic recovery. Judging from the domestic situation, inflation "tighten curse" is highly strained, the central bank's interest rate increase is reasonable, and the tightening of financial tightening not only leads to further shortage of commodity market funds, but also seriously affects bull confidence. Therefore, the unabated tightening has become the most important factor to curb the upward trend of domestic commodity futures prices.

Upstream PX supply increases, price weakness downward

Japan's "3. 11" earthquake has been in the past three months, and some parts of the PX and PTA installations affected by the earthquake have been restarted, and the supply has gradually picked up. In the recent PX market, South Korea's S-Oil new 900 thousand ton PX new plant was put into operation in May, and the market increased by 75 thousand tons per month. On the whole, the supply of PX in the market is increasing, and the price of PX is difficult to break through effectively. In terms of domestic PX situation, it is estimated that domestic PX capacity will exceed 9 million tons in 2011, an increase of 9.7% over 2010. With the release of PX output, the Asian PX spot market continued to fall in May, ending at 1500.50 to 1501.50 U.S. dollars / ton (CFR Taiwan), and 1480.50 to 1481.50 U.S. dollars / ton (FOB Korea). Sinopec PX6 month's listing price was set at 11800 yuan / ton, down 450 yuan / ton compared with the May settlement price. In June, Japan's PX Asian contract price was set at $1500 / ton CFR Asia, down 105 US dollars / ton compared with May.

PTA's new capacity will soon be put into operation, and the supply and demand pattern will change.

In 2010, the supply and demand pattern of domestic PTA was in a state of non-equilibrium, and the supply was generally tight. This is also the fundamental factor of the PTA bull market in 2010. In 2011, as PTA production profits were relatively large, the enthusiasm of enterprises to expand production also increased. In 2011, the new capacity of domestic PTA was between 440 and 4 million 600 thousand tons, and the new capacity is expected to be released gradually after June. The polyester PTA downstream also has large capacity production this year, but it is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. The market is worried that a large number of PTA production capacity will be concentrated in the second half of the year, while the slow digestion process of downstream polyester will lead to the new PTA production capacity. Therefore, in 2011, the supply and demand pattern of PTA will shift from tight supply to oversupply.

PTA downstream demand shrinking, the medium-term situation is not optimistic.

Although the market of polyester filament is not satisfactory in recent years, the downstream market of PTA is still not optimistic, and the market demand has not been gradually shrinking. From the downstream spot market, we understand that the current downstream polyester and terminal textile industry orders are not ideal, and new orders are relatively scarce after May.

There are two main reasons for the decline of PTA downstream demand:

First of all, after June, most parts of the country will enter the summer. The market is expected to use electricity shortage nationwide this summer, and the electricity measures will be frequent. At present, there are more serious electricity shortages in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, and the textile market is facing the use of power restriction. For example, "opening three cease one" and so on, the power restriction measures make the weaving rate of downstream weaving enterprises fall down. Zhejiang Xiaoshao area round machine start rate is maintained at about 60%, the lower reaches of Shengze loom start rate is maintained at around 80%, the market is expected to have room for market opening rate, due to the decline in boot rate makes polyester demand for upstream PTA weakened.

Second, since February this year, the renminbi has accelerated appreciation, and the RMB has fallen below 6.5 against the US dollar and will further appreciate. The rapid appreciation of the renminbi will undoubtedly add to the difficulties for export oriented industries such as polyester textiles. In order to avoid the risk of RMB appreciation, this year's textile and garment enterprises mainly rely on short lists, indicating that PTA's medium-term demand is not optimistic.

From the textile sales market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, we understand that the current downward trend of polyester prices continues to move downward, showing a steady and downward trend. The polyester market is still mainly shipments, but part of the wait and see.

To sum up, in the middle of May, the domestic PTA price dropped slightly to the bottom of the 9500 line, showing signs of a weak rebound. However, we are still not optimistic about PTA. {page_break}

From a macro perspective, the US economic recovery is difficult and China's tight monetary policy is pressing down the commodity upward space. From the point of view of industrial chain, the price of PTA upstream PX is weak, and downstream polyester demand has shrunk. In the second half of the year, PTA is facing the new production capacity of centralized production, and a lot of capacity is just like a mountain peak, and PTA upward pressure is increasing. In the bad situation, we do not rule out the possibility that PTA will fall below the 9500 line and create a new low in the year.