CPI Increase Or Two Quarter Peak Three Quarter See Inflection Point

The National Bureau of statistics will announce the 14 main items in May.

From the published price monitoring data, the favorable conditions and unfavorable conditions that affect prices in the near future coexist.

In terms of favorable conditions, the relief of drought in some areas helps stabilize grain prices and food prices; commodity prices are stable, reducing the pressure on imported inflation to continue to spread.

On the negative side, pork, aquatic products and egg prices have ended since the Spring Festival. *

Song Yu, an Asian economist at Goldman Sachs, thinks that China's CPI growth in May may be 5.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month, and the PPI of industrial products rose by 6.4% over the same period last year, down from 6.8% last month.

Monetary policy may continue to tighten under the pressure of CPI growth.

The research report released by CICC believes that the central bank may raise interest rates once again in June and July, and the enlargement of the trade surplus in May means that there is still room for the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

Analysts said that the tail factor has become an important factor affecting the recent price increase.

In the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate continued to fall, which increased the possibility of CPI growth in May and June.

From the three quarter, under the influence of economic downturn and price regulation, price inflation is expected to come out of the downward turning point.

Fan Jianping, director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the state information center, said that in the coming period, macroeconomic regulation and control will remain the primary objective of stabilizing prices.

The annual CPI growth rate may be in the two quarter, and the price increase will fall in the second half.

Some institutions believe that the price may fall later.

Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shenyin Wanguo (market, information, commentary) believes that under the background of liquidity contraction and economic adjustment, the gradual decline of price increases is a big probability event.

However, because of drought and housing prices in some parts of the south, the price rises may fall later than expected.

Yu Bin, Minister of the Department of macro research of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that the pressure of China's price rise is still relatively large and has not yet seen the peak and inflection point.

Macroeconomic policies will continue to focus on price control, while paying close attention to the changes in price levels and economic growth and making policy preparations ahead of schedule.