Labor Shortage Plays A Prelude To Industrial Pformation

Labor shortage played a prelude to industrial pformation, and many people scramble for war.

"Zhejiang labor gap 7 million" and "Guangdong gap 1 million", in 2011, the coastal provinces' "labor shortage" was upgraded again.

Not only did the coastal provinces have a shortage of labor, but also 250 thousand of the traditional labor export province of Anhui had a labor gap.

In order to win more labor force, coastal provinces and labor exporting provinces have even fought for labor.

First appeared in 2004.

Comprehensive upgrading of labor shortage

The "labor shortage" that frequently appeared in newspapers from the financial crisis did not seem to be a flash in the pan.

According to the data released by the China human resources market information monitoring center, in the first quarter of 2011, the proportion of job seekers (job vacancies and job seekers) in the 101 cities monitored was about 1.07, which has exceeded the historical high of 0.98 in 2007 to 2008.

Coastal provinces are undoubtedly the hardest hit areas of "labor shortage".

The information of Jiangsu's human resources and social security net shows that in the first quarter of this year, the rate of seeking a person in the province was 1.22, an increase of 0.08 compared with the fourth quarter of last year, an increase of 0.09 compared with the same period last year.

Even as a major province of traditional labor export, Anhui's first rate in the first quarter reached 1.2.

"Labor shortage" is not only a shortage of employment, but also its structural problems.

Reporters found that some of the labor-intensive laborer and skilled workers in the coastal areas became the most difficult jobs.

General practitioners are the biggest jobs in the "labor shortage".

Not only are the general practitioners difficult to recruit, but the technicians are also becoming more and more difficult.

According to the data of China human resource market information monitoring center, the ratio of job vacancies to job seekers in each technical level is greater than 1, and the demand for labor is greater than that of supply.

Among them, the ratio of job vacancies and job seekers in senior engineers, technicians and senior technicians is 2.29, 2.19 and 1.89 respectively.

According to the analysis of the office of human resources and social security of Zhejiang Province, the shortage of labor in the province showed a trend of diffusion and normalization. The shortage of workers was pformed from the shortage of skilled workers to the shortage of general workers and technicians.

Superposition factors lead to "labor shortage"

After the slowdown in the supply of labor, China's economy will face more challenges, namely, the negative growth of labor force and the complete disappearance of demographic dividend.

At present, although the total labor force in China has not yet changed from surplus to shortage, the speed of labor supply cannot keep pace with it.

Cai Fang, director of the Institute of population and labor economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the root cause of the "labor shortage" phenomenon is that the growth rate of labor supply in China is lower than that caused by economic growth.

"Since the beginning of the new century, the growth rate of China's working age population has been declining, the average annual growth rate is about 1%, but at the same time, China's economy has maintained a two digit rapid growth."

Cai Fang said.

Along with the reduction of labor supply growth in China, there are a series of changes in the economic structure.

Data show that in 2010, GDP "trillion club" members have expanded to 17, of which the central and western regions have grown strongly, occupying 10 seats, while the eastern part accounts for only 7 seats.

China's economic development has gone through the stage of "rapid growth in the East and lagging development in the central and western regions". This has made many traditional labor exporting provinces also need a large number of labor force, and the phenomenon of "robbing people" in the central and western regions and coastal areas is common.

Price movements have also profoundly affected China's economy.

As the price of agricultural products has been rising in recent years, and the abolition of the agricultural tax, the income of farmers' farming has increased.

But at the same time, it is precisely driven by the price of agricultural products that prices are generally on the rise, and the prices of housing prices skyrocket after 2005, and the cost of living in cities is getting higher and higher.

At the same time, under the restriction of household registration system, migrant workers and urban household residents still have differential treatment in terms of social security, medical treatment and children's schooling.

In contrast to the better living conditions in rural areas and the higher cost of living in cities, more and more farmers choose to work in household farms instead of migrant workers.

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Transformation and upgrading as the fundamental way out

Along with the "labor shortage" is the wage surge.

The spring report of China's industrial economic operation, released in 2011 by the Ministry of industry and information, shows that following the 30 provinces (districts and cities) raising the minimum wage standard in 2010 (the average rate of 22.8%), this year, 13 provinces and municipalities such as Beijing, Chongqing, Jiangsu and Guangdong have again raised the minimum wage standard substantially.

Labor remuneration generally rose, further improving the operation cost of enterprises.

In this year's "labor shortage", it is undoubtedly the small and medium-sized enterprises that first spread.

According to a survey conducted by the Central People's Government of China, more than 90% of the PRD enterprises interviewed said there was a shortage of labour.

This change in supply and demand forces companies to increase their employees' benefits, thus bringing about an increase in labor costs.

Temporary wage increases are not enough, and the core of improving labor shortage is in enterprises.

The fundamental way out for SMEs to solve the problem of "labor shortage" is to enhance their innovation capability and complete industrial upgrading.

From the international experience, "labor shortage" is also the prelude to the upgrading of industrial pformation.

This phenomenon occurred in Japan in the 60s of last century.

At that time, Japan's agricultural labor force accounted for about 50% of the total labor force, and the shortage of industrial workers led to the end of Japan's manufacturing industry relying on the growth mode of cheap labor.

To this end, Japan has taken measures to expand investment in equipment, promote technological progress and adjust the industrial structure.

Cai Fang said, our current trend is to get old before the rich, the old comparative advantage is lost, and the new comparative advantage has not yet formed, so it is easy to fall into the trap of middle-income.

The result of the shortage of labor is the continuous rise in wages, which began in 2003.

If the wages of employed workers in agriculture are listed, it will be found that it will increase faster or even faster. After excluding the price factors, the average annual increase will be as high as 20%.

"How to avoid the middle-income trap? I don't think we can rely on population policy.

Even if we release the birth restriction now, we will not be able to reverse the trend of aging. The way out is to increase total factor productivity and maintain economic growth.

Cai Fang said.

Gu Shengzu, vice chairman of the Central Committee of the people's Republic of China, said that abundant and cheap labor resources are the important factors to support the first pformation of China's economy. However, in recent years, the increasingly prominent problem of "labor shortage" means that this development advantage is gradually disappearing.

The rise in labor costs caused by the turning point of labor shortage is an important force in the pformation of China's economic development mode.