The Era Of Low Cotton Prices Will Never Return To &Nbsp; Cotton Is Expected To Achieve A Good Harvest.

"According to the latest prediction, the whole country in 2011 cotton The sown area reached 81 million mu, an increase of 5.2% over the previous year. If there are no devastating natural disasters in the next few months, domestic cotton will get a good harvest and output will not be lower than the previous year. " Gao Fang, vice president of China Cotton Association, said at the 2011 China International Cotton Conference.

China is the largest cotton producing country and cotton producing country in the world. industry chain The cotton price trend will not only affect the interests of cotton farmers, but also affect the downstream textile and garment enterprises. All sides believe that based on rising costs and the support of minimum cotton protection prices, the era of domestic low cotton prices is gone forever.

　　 Farewell to the low cotton price Era

According to the China Cotton Association data, in June 16th, China's cotton price index (CCIndex328) was 24513 yuan / ton, which has dropped 20% compared with the March high of 2011. 2010/11 cotton year, subject to production and demand With the increase of the gap and the economic environment at home and abroad, cotton prices have soared and hit a record high, and then dropped rapidly.

In addition to the factors of supply and demand, the deep reasons include: 1) the surplus of capital flows in the global scope; the domestic and international "hot money" has surged to the bulk of agricultural and sideline products, of which cotton ranks the top among all agricultural and sideline products; two, the economic recovery and growth in the world are the fundamental driving force to support the rise of commodity prices. Large agricultural products including cotton (000061) have already bid farewell to the low price era; three, some countries have adopted restrictive policies on the export of cotton and other products, which has affected the global cotton supply and demand pattern, and has intensified the huge fluctuation of cotton prices. "This round of cotton price rise comes from the gap between supply and demand, but gains exceed supply and demand. When prices are seriously deviated from value, when the interests of each industry chain are unbalanced, big ups and downs are inevitable."

As the largest cotton producing country and cotton producing country, China has an average annual cotton planting area of 78 million 210 thousand mu (5 million 214 thousand hectares) in the past ten years, with an average output of 6 million 230 thousand tons, accounting for about 30% of the world's total output. Dai pointed out that in the next five to ten years, China's position as a major cotton producer and consumer will not change fundamentally. Cotton production capacity still has growth potential. Consumption, with the continuous improvement of rural purchasing power, the growth of domestic cotton demand will further accelerate, and China's textile and clothing exports will continue to grow.

As for cotton prices in the future, all parties attending the China International Cotton Conference believe that the era of low cotton prices has gone for ever, based on rising costs and the support of minimum cotton protection prices.

Lu Huaiyu, President of the cotton association of China Cotton Association, pointed out that, from the cotton grower's point of view, the cost of cotton planting in 2011 increased by 20% at least from 2010, including physical and chemical costs and labor costs.

In March 2011, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments promulgated the "cotton temporary storage and purchase plan" in 2011, and from September 1, 2011 to March 31, 2012, in the 13 provinces of Xinjiang and Shandong, the minimum purchase and storage price of standard grade lint 19800 yuan per ton was not limited to purchase. The policy is regarded as the lowest protective price system of cotton in the industry, which is beneficial to protect farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting, and indirectly determines the bottom line of cotton prices in China for a long time.

Gao Fang also pointed out that the factors determining the cotton market in 2011 included: first, the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control policy aimed at inflation pressure was more determined; two, China's purchasing and storage policy locked the lowest price of cotton; three, the cost of raw materials, labor and capital increased. Uncertainties in the cotton market include climate, textile and garment export environment and so on. All these will affect the supply and demand and price of cotton.

　　 A good harvest is expected in 2011.

According to the latest prediction of China Cotton Association, the cotton planting area reached 81 million mu in 2011, an increase of 5.2% over the previous year. Gao Fang said that as of the end of May, the national cotton planting rate is 98.5%. If there are no devastating natural disasters in the next few months, China will get a good harvest of cotton and its output will not be lower than that of the previous year.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the output of cotton in China in 2010/11 is 5 million 960 thousand tons, of which 2 million 480 thousand tons are in Xinjiang cotton area. The cotton association of China expects output of 6 million 650 thousand tons, of which 2 million 920 thousand tons in Xinjiang, and 6 million 700 thousand tons for the relevant departments. Judging from cotton consumption, China Cotton Association estimated cotton consumption at the beginning of the year was 11 million tons, an increase of 3.8% over the previous year.

The deputy director of the rural economic department of the national development and Reform Commission said that the demand for domestic cotton will grow further in 12th Five-Year, but the growth rate will slow down. According to the Ministry of industry and Commerce forecast, cotton demand will probably increase to 13 million tons by 2015, and the gap between production and demand will gradually expand.

The existence of cotton gap also makes domestic cotton dependence on foreign countries higher. The industry expects that the pattern of China's high dependence on cotton will continue for some time. Data show that in the first 5 months of 2011, China imported 1 million 210 thousand tons of cotton, down 11.8% from the same period last year, and the total import value was 3 billion 645 million US dollars, up 53.4% from the same period last year.