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    Terry Xie Again Said "High Vigilance" &Nbsp; The European Central Bank'S Interest Rate Is On The Point.

    2011/7/2 11:08:00 69

    Trichet Is Highly Vigilant Against The ECB'S Interest Rate Increase.

    In June 30th, the European central bank governor Tyse said in Brussels that the global economy has shown positive growth momentum and that the global economic recovery trend is expected to continue. Exports of the euro area should benefit from global economic expansion.

    At the same time, Tyse pointed out that the European Central Bank will remain vigilant against the inflation situation.

    "

    High vigilance

    "The word again implies that the ECB may raise interest rates again in the July 7th interest rate meeting.


    In fact, Trichet has hinted at raising interest rates at a news conference in Amsterdam, Holland, in June 28th.

    At that time, Tyse said that the central bank governor was in a "strong warning mode".


    Tyse said: "we will gradually adopt the decision that we have decided to take in order to control inflation expectations, which we have been doing all along.

    This is extremely important for stability, market confidence and economic prosperity in the euro area. "


    In April this year, the European Central Bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, which is the first time that the bank will raise interest rates in nearly 3 years.

    Since then, the expectation of the European Central Bank "entering a new round of interest rate hike" has been increasing.

    Inflation in the euro area has been more severe, which has put pressure on the ECB to raise interest rates.

    According to the preliminary data released by the European Union Statistics Bureau in June 30th, the euro area inflation rate was 2.7% at an annual rate in June this year, unchanged from May.

    This is the eurozone.

    Inflation rate

    For seventh consecutive months, it was higher than the European Central Bank's 2% warning line to maintain price stability.

    Although the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in early April, the inflation pressure on the euro area has not eased due to rising prices of commodities such as international crude oil.


    Test: 1/6 will fall


    Apart from raising interest rates, another concern for the market is the stress test in the European banking sector.

    According to people familiar with the matter in June 29th, as many as 1/6 banks are unable to pass the EU stress test.

    According to the person familiar with the matter, the European Banking Bureau will announce that 10 or 15 of the 91 banks participating in the stress test failed and expect the banks to come from Greece, Germany, Portugal and Spain.


    It is reported that the current test will measure the absorption of core capital by banks depending on the core capital, such as the ability of banks to take charge of non-performing loans when the economic downturn or real estate prices fall.

    The test will also measure the impact on the devaluation of bonds issued by banks such as Greece, but will not estimate the full impact of the national default.


    A year ago, the test was considered to be too loose. The current stress test will unveil the "health" situation of the European Union for the first time.

    In last year's stress tests, all Irish Banks went through the storm, but in a few months, the debt crisis broke out, and eventually international assistance was sought.

    The European Central Bank hopes to use this test to convince investors that the EU has finally clarified the problems facing the banking industry.

    The test results can be used to put pressure on countries to force financially weak banks to increase their capital.


    In order to increase the credibility of the test, the European Bank of Europe, which has hosted the test, and the ECB, which set the macroeconomic goals, hopes to let more banks fail, not last year's 7.

    The European Banking Bureau hopes that the number of banks that fail to pass the test will be less and less.

    debt crisis

    Therefore, it is appropriate to "block 10 to 15 banks".

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