In June, PMI Hit A 28 Month Low Of &Nbsp, Tightening Or Loosening.

For 3 months, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is approaching the divide. monetary policy Under the premise that the tone is not changed, there will be no room for strength to loosen up.

China logistics and purchasing Federation announced on 1, in June, China's PMI 50.9%, down 1.1 percentage points, approaching 50% of the warning line. This figure is lower than previous market expectations, and hit a 28 month low.

Analysts pointed out that the latest PMI data show that economic growth and Inflationary pressure Both are slowing down, but there is no need to worry about a "hard landing" of the economy. However, it is worth noting that concerns about further slowdown in economic growth may limit the further tightening of monetary policy.

This year, PMI has shown a downward trend overall. After the slight increase in March, it has declined for 3 consecutive months, with a total decline of 2.5 percentage points. "PMI continued to call back in June, indicating that the growth rate of the economy in the future may continue to decline, mainly due to the fact that Inventory adjustment " Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher of the development research center of the State Council, pointed out.

However, Zhang Liqun reminded, "inventory adjustment is only a short-term phenomenon, so the economic downturn will not be sustained, nor will the decline be great. At present, the growth of the three major economic, investment, consumption and export growth is generally stable, so the economic growth will not be deep callback.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, also believes that the PMI index remains at the level of expansion, and that investment in the near future remains at a high level and household consumption growth remains stable. The overall trend of economic growth is stable and the risk of hard landing is small.

Judging from the sub index, except for the finished product inventory index, the rest of the indices fell to varying degrees. Among them, the purchase price index dropped the largest, reaching 3.6 percentage points, indicating that inflation pressure will fall in the future.

The Federation of logistics and purchasing pointed out that with the gradual easing of the pressure of rising prices and the gradual weakening of the negative impact on economic development, the economic development trend in the four quarter is expected to be stable.

But it is important to note that as the economy continues to fall, the market is expected to have a fine adjustment of monetary policy.

In response, Peng Wensheng said that although the economic slowdown is more obvious, inflation governance is at a critical stage and will maintain a tight monetary policy in the short term. It is expected that interest rates will rise once in July.

Wei Fengchun, chief macroeconomic analyst at CITIC Securities, pointed out that tight monetary policy will continue, but the possibility of tighter monetary policy will weaken as the economy slows down. Dong Xianan, Beijing's leading international chief economist, also believes that the fourth quarter may relax in banking regulation and credit.