One Word: Cotton Prices Still Fall, But The Height Is No More Than 27400 Yuan.

　　 cotton Prices will still fall after a rebound from drought. The low point in Zheng cotton will be around 21500 yuan per ton, and then it will be slowed down by the tightening policy and the emergence of long-term investment opportunities. Rise But the height is not more than 27400 yuan.

The reasons for the above judgment are as follows:

World macro economy Economic governance The strategy seeks a balance between curbing inflation and supporting economic recovery. The recovery rate of the world economy has slowed down, while the inflationary pressure has gradually increased. We believe that unless domestic commodity prices fall sharply, import inflation pressure will be reduced, otherwise domestic tightening policy will continue, and the Federal Reserve will not be able to launch QE3, which will make cotton market facing bad profits.

Textile and garment industry is in a predicament, leading to the process of industrial chain de stocking. Since March, high raw material prices, rising labor costs and the continued appreciation of the RMB exchange rate have finally shown the negative effects on the textile and garment industry. The enterprises reflect that this year's overseas orders are far behind last year. Many small and medium-sized textile enterprises have stopped production and restricted production, and the raw materials and intermediate products of the enterprises are high. Meanwhile, the price of cotton yarn and lint cotton has declined, causing panic in the cotton spot market with low participation in futures market.

The world's cotton planting area increased significantly in 2011/12, but the inventory consumption ratio remained low. World cotton production is expected to record a record 27 million 154 thousand tons in 2011/12, an increase of 8.83% over the same period last year, a world consumption of 26 million 18 thousand tons, an increase of 2.57% over the same period last year, a surplus of 1 million 136 thousand tons of cotton in the new year, and a 40.11 rise in the inventory consumption ratio, but still far below the average of 49.22 in the ten year, supporting the new year's cotton price continuing to run at a high level.

Dry weather has little effect on cotton yield in China, but the output of American cotton needs to be estimated. Under the influence of La Nina phenomenon, there has been a severe drought in the main cotton producing areas such as the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Texas in the United States, but it has little impact on domestic cotton production. The cotton production is expected to reach a high level this year. The impact of the United States and cotton is relatively large. The specific losses need to be estimated by the US Department of agriculture in the June report on the supply and demand of agricultural products.