In The Second Half Of The Year, The RMB Starts A New Round Of Attack.

It only lasted 6 days for a short peak, just in July. RMB rate Then strides forward to the 6.46 era. It seems to have opened the curtain on appreciation in the second half of the year. Even if public opinion analyses, the momentum of RMB appreciation tends to weaken.

In the vicinity of 6.47, the US dollar, which had been entangled for nearly a week, was once again active in the middle price of the RMB exchange rate. After breaking 6.47, it even rose three days. In July 5th, the foreign exchange earned a new high to 6.4650.

Logically, the 2011 RMB exchange rate innovation is high or normal. If the target of annual appreciation is 5%, the value of RMB will still appreciate after the overall appreciation of the first half of 2.33%.

However, in July 4th, the dollar index fell to a low of 74.11 a month. market People are still looking at the prospect of the US dollar. Many views in the market point out that in the background of the weak dollar in the first half of the year, the renminbi has been appreciated. In the second half of this year, the RMB will increase or narrow with the US dollar and show a two-way fluctuation.

　 Appreciation power

In fact, the momentum of RMB appreciation has been weakening. According to the report, the trade surplus decreased steadily in May. The newly released PMI data also showed that in June, PMI continued to continue the downward trend in May, down 1.1 percentage points to 50.9%. The purchase price index dropped to 56.7%, a 3.6 percentage point drop from last month.

In this regard, Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Mizuho Securities Asia's chief executive, said that the fall in the purchase price index and the moderate slowdown in economic growth all showed that the effectiveness of the tightening monetary policy has already begun to show. However, considering that inflation pressure is still relatively high in the future, inflation and housing price inflection point have not appeared, and monetary policy needs to continue.

However, it is worth noting that the statistics of the State Administration of foreign exchange (SAFE) show that in May 2011, the foreign exchange settlement by banks was $139 billion, and the sale of foreign exchange on behalf of banks was US $87 billion 100 million, and the surpluses of foreign exchange sales on behalf of banks amounted to US $51 billion 900 million.

Correspondingly, in May 2011, the domestic bank's behalf related foreign income was 193 billion 200 million dollars, the external payment was 160 billion 300 million dollars, and the bank accounts receipts and payments were $32 billion 800 million.

This shows that the foreign exchange settlement rate in May was 71.9%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared with 73% in April, and the rate of foreign exchange purchase and sale of foreign exchange was 54.3%, down 1.2 percentage points compared with 55.5% in April. It shows that funds continue to show the trend of "warming up" and "cooling down".

To some extent, "appreciation" is also regarded as a prescription for the central bank to curb inflation. In addition, it has been revealed that "stepping up efforts to intervene in the foreign exchange market; gradual appreciation of the local currency; macro Prudential Management (strengthening capital control)" is the "three step" of the central banks' response to capital inflow in emerging market countries. The usual practice of China is that both of the three should be applied.

But in the current international environment, the trend of capital gains will undoubtedly flow to China. The most direct hedge of the central bank is to absorb liquidity to buy foreign exchange, otherwise it will appreciate. A government official said.

In this way, it is not difficult to understand the policy intent of "appreciation" of the RMB exchange rate. A fund trader also admitted that the central parity of the RMB exchange rate reflected more policy implications.

　　 Appreciation paradox

What is the fair price of the real exchange rate? Meng Qingxuan, a senior researcher at Stanford University, said: "the fair value of monetary assets is difficult to calculate. There are too many variables and parameters and standards. No objective financial model can be established. At present, no organization can accurately measure it."

"We can not quantify the equilibrium exchange rate level." Zhao Qingming, senior research fellow of China Construction Bank, said, "if the RMB really hits the top, it may not be a bad thing, because the exchange rate is the focus of many problems, resolving the contradiction between the appreciation of the exchange rate and other difficult problems will be solved."

Xu Sitao, head of China's Regional Forecasting Department of the Information Department of the economist, said that inflation itself is a disguised external appreciation, believing that China can tolerate higher inflation, but the renminbi will not fall, and at the same time, there is little room for appreciation. Over the years, the real exchange rate of the RMB has taken a big step; the target of RMB exchange rate of 5% is estimated to rise by about 2-3% by the end of the year.

But the paradox of appreciation is that the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi strengthens the expectation of appreciation, and stimulates the inflow of more interest capital (hot money), which exacerbates the contradiction of imported excess liquidity. As mentioned above, the May bank customer settlement data show that capital inflow pressure is still relatively large.

In an enlarged meeting of "the study and implementation of general secretary Hu Jintao's important speech at the 90th anniversary congress of the Communist Party of China" recently, the vice president of the central bank and Yi Gang, the director of the central bank, said that the opportunity to celebrate the establishment of the party 90th anniversary would be deepened. We should deepen the reform of the foreign exchange management system, actively promote trade and investment facilitation, and promote the convertibility of capital account in a safe and orderly manner.

"Strengthen the monitoring and early warning of the balance of payments statistics, prevent the risk of abnormal cross-border capital flows, improve the management of foreign exchange reserves, and further improve the balance of payments situation." Yi Gang expresses.