Cotton Price Fluctuation Quartet &Nbsp; Explore Textile And Garment Enterprises Outlet

In the upper reaches of the textile industry,

First ensemble: cotton prices rise steadily

After the incident: from the end of 2009 to September 2010, cotton prices remained stable.

In March, with the rapid growth of textile and clothing exports, domestic cotton spot prices continued to grow, and the price at the end of the month increased by more than 1100 yuan per ton compared with the beginning of the month.

In April, business inventories increased, procurement slowed down and prices rose steadily.

In May, the macro-control department increased the quota of 800 thousand tons of imported cotton. However, influenced by the cotton embargo policy issued by India, the overall tightening of market resources intensified, and cotton prices rose again. The month's increase also reached 1000 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of June, the state's macroeconomic regulation and control policy was promulgated, and the quota of 800 thousand tons continued to be increased, and the plan of dumping and storage was formulated.

In July, the market demand declined, coupled with the impact of macroeconomic regulation and control policies, the first decline in July this year, but the decline was not large, and by the end of August, it dropped by 350 yuan per ton.

Unlike the cotton price rise in previous years, international cotton prices continued to rise under demand pull.

Driven by the rapid rise of cotton prices, cotton yarn prices are rising more rapidly. The trend of gauze price curve is similar to cotton price trend, and there is no obvious lag.

The rise in cotton yarn prices in turn drives cotton prices up.

Before September 2010, cotton prices had been rising steadily, with a monthly increase of 1100 yuan per ton, and a slight decline in 7.8 months. The cotton market was very calm, and there was no sign of significant price increase.

Such a price increase range is acceptable to the general textile enterprises. Although it has been affected, it will not be able to afford it.

In such a steady increase, many enterprises began to accept the gradual rise of cotton, but I do not know that the greater the storm in the cotton market is coming.

Second Quintet: cotton price rises in a crazy way

Events: after September 2010, new cotton is coming on the market. Affected by many factors, such as the expansion of supply and demand gap, the delayed listing of new cotton, the rising price of agricultural products and market speculation, cotton futures, electronic matching pactions, throwing and selling prices, spot prices and seed cotton purchase prices all appear.

In order to meet the needs of textile enterprises, the departments concerned decided to increase the 400 thousand tons of throwing and storing again.

Affected by market factors, the month of selling and selling prices rose sharply.

With the reduction of resources, the resources in the spot market are very thick, and the competition for cotton reserves is fierce. The rise in cotton prices directly increases the spot price and the purchase price of cotton in the new year - the highest purchase price of standard grade seed cotton has reached more than 14.4 yuan per kilogram.

In October, 1 million tons of throwing and storage were all over. The number of new cotton purchased by textile enterprises increased, and the paction price rose further.

The average monthly price of China's cotton price index (CCIndex328) is 19324 yuan / ton, up 28% compared with September, and its average daily gain is more than 200 yuan, the highest is close to 27 thousand yuan / ton.

In the same period, the price of electronic matching and cotton futures rose even more, and the price of major contracts exceeded 28 thousand yuan / ton at the end of the month.

At the beginning of November, cotton prices continued to rise at home and abroad.

In November 9th, the CotlookA index climbed to 166 cents / pound.

In November 11th, China's cotton price index (grade 328 cotton) rose to a record high of 31302 yuan / ton.

In December, cotton prices gradually entered a stable period. The craziness of the price began to ease. The cotton price, which had been madly for several months, began to breathe time for the spinning enterprises. If the spinning enterprises invested too much money in the early stage, they might have a great restriction on the late operation. This is also a common problem faced by many home textile enterprises.

The price hike is not decided on the one hand, it is the general situation of the market and the current situation of cotton. Many domestic textile enterprises purchase a lot of cotton during the second period, and spend a lot of money to expand the stock. However, the turnover capital will be reduced and the risk will be bigger.

Trio: cotton price rational fall period

Events: cotton prices, which have been soaring since mid September, suddenly changed in mid November, turning to a straight line.

On November 11th and 12, cotton futures prices continued to fall for two consecutive days, and futures prices continued to fall.

Spot prices also fell in November 12th.

November 16th, China's cotton

Since the beginning of 2011, cotton prices have started to go up and down again and again. There is no sharp rise or fall. This is related to the current market situation. First of all, the textile market has begun to enter the off-season, and demand is no longer as strong as the peak season. This year's cotton planting situation is quite good. The trend in the future depends on the development of the market.

After a sharp fall, domestic cotton spot prices stabilized at the end of November, and both futures and international cotton prices rebounded.

Fourth Ensemble: cotton price future trend outlook

Events: at present, the domestic cotton futures and spot markets are showing signs of weakness, the industrial chain is watching from top to bottom, and the cotton farmers are generally reluctant to sell. Many cotton producers have suspended seed cotton acquisitions, and intend to increase sales of lint. But most textile enterprises "buy up or not", and stock enterprises simply stop purchasing, and the market price of the gauze falls down, the number of new orders is less, and the cotton trade is light.

Preliminary analysis and judgement of China's cotton reserves revealed that the domestic cotton market has a strong leading factor in the macro level, and there is still some room for policy adjustment in the late stage.

From the perspective of annual market development, the unrestrained explosive market has ended, and now the market has entered the macro economic tightening, the intensity of inflation control policy is becoming stronger and the annual cotton, especially high-grade cotton, is relatively tight.

After this great fluctuation, many powerful textile enterprises began to develop new technologies, hoping to replace cotton with more new materials, so that enterprises can grasp the initiative of market changes and meet the needs of market changes.

Some enterprises will take the pformation as a new development goal and push the pformation to the specific agenda.

Lay a solid foundation for the long-term development of enterprises.