Thinking About The Recent Trend Of Cotton

2010

In the second half of 2003, cotton prices surged from 12 thousand yuan / ton to 18 thousand yuan / ton, and the relevant departments of the state adjusted cotton by increasing import quotas, increasing the entry threshold of banks, and recovering bad loans from old institutions.

Baiyun County, Wangjiang County, Anhui

People will not forget the sudden financial turmoil of 2008.

International oil prices rose from $70 / barrel to $147 / barrel, and did not begin to recede at the end of September.

The RMB exchange rate was 7.5 before May and 7 after May, rising to 6.8.

In addition, the US dollar is wildly derogatory, and the manufacturing and textile industries in the developed coastal areas are facing great retreat and escape.

Cotton prices gradually decreased from 14500 yuan / ton to 9600 yuan / ton.

Wangjiang County, Anhui province Baiyun cotton industry in May, more than 3000 tons of cotton bales, until the end of August only after the sale, the average price of 12 thousand yuan / ton, the loss of about 7500000 yuan.

In September, when new cotton came into the market, it could not afford bank loans.

This leading enterprise standing in the cotton growing area along the river went bankrupt.

The Guzhen Tianyuan cotton Limited by Share Ltd, also known as the "cotton pride" in the Huai River region, is also doomed to escape.

Buffett once said a very famous saying: "only when the tide recede, you will know who has been swimming naked."

From 2010, the spot price of cotton in 2010 rose from 328 yuan to 15 thousand yuan / ton in the beginning of the year, and accelerated in September. In November 11th, it reached the peak of 31235 yuan / ton, and then plunged sharply to 26 thousand yuan / ton.

It began to pick up in December and returned to $27 thousand / ton in March this year after returning to 30 thousand yuan / ton mark.

In May 11th, the cost of cotton fell by 24 thousand yuan / ton, creating a new high in China's cotton history.

Manager Yang of New Silk Road in Wangjiang County, Anhui province tells us that the company is now storing 2000 tons.

In March, many textile factories produced 30 thousand yuan / ton, but they did not want to sell it. Now the price of lint in his area has dropped to about 22 thousand yuan / ton, and the loss of each ton is about 6000 yuan, but it still can not find buyers.

According to my own grasp of more than 40 cotton enterprises data analysis, nearly 80% of cotton enterprises are facing reshuffle.

There is a great relationship between cotton price diving and the shrinking of downstream demand.

Zhangjiagang Xinyu textile printing and dyeing Co., Ltd. ginger factory director just returned from the 109 Canton Fair, said: this Canton Fair brings only disappointment, mainly because the RMB exchange rate appreciation is too fast, in the first half of 2008, breaking 7, this year is broken 6.5, short single, two months of product line, several points of profit margins shrink, white busy.

The second reason is that the current price is too high for customers to accept, and the main reason why they dare not accept it is that there is great uncertainty in the trend of garment export market in the second half of this year.

Their company's orders decreased by 2/3 compared with the same period last year.

In the first half of this year, though only 1 months ago, the traditional cotton peak season has turned to cotton off-season, and is now drawing to a close.

From 6 to August, the traditional consumption season is low, and the new cotton market will be introduced in September. It is estimated that cotton will be valued by the market until July.