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Just 7 trading days, just 900 points of the shock interval, zhengcotton main contract total position has surged by 30%, the first 10 seats empty positions increased by 121%.

The massive intervention of capital means that the new round of quotes will start.

From a fundamental point of view, Zheng cotton market is still shrouded in empty atmosphere.

Supply side, new cotton supply and demand tension will be improved, bad cotton prices; demand side, textile enterprises to shrink cotton, finished inventory backlog, inventory pressure.

Combined with technical aspects, Zheng cotton 1201 contract back to fill the gap before the failure of the Long Yin kill, the average system also showed a drop in the order, the downtrend is expected to continue.

Therefore, on the whole, I believe that Zheng cotton will continue to fall, and the target of this round will be around 20000 yuan / ton of the policy bottom line.

Adequate supply

The US Department of agriculture report in July showed that the tension of supply and demand of cotton has eased in the past three years.

The report raised the global cotton inventory consumption ratio to 43.68% in the new year, up 3.11 percentage points from the June report.

At home, the new cotton is growing well and will be available at the end of August. The supply of cotton is low and the supply of cotton is in the doldrums.

Affected by the reduction of three grade lint to 20 thousand yuan / ton last Saturday by Shandong large cotton spinning group, the market panic spread. This Thursday grade cotton to factory price has fallen below the reserve price of the previous country.

Later, we should pay close attention to the spot movement of grade three cotton. If the spot can not stabilize near the reserve price, it will drag down the future trend.

Poor sales

From the downstream point of view, although the spinning enterprises have strong willingness to take the initiative, the downstream orders are scarce.

6 the survey data at the end of the month showed that the average stock of yarn in spinning enterprises was 35.02 days, 12.94 days higher than that at the end of 5 months, and grey fabric inventory was 16.65 days, 4.05 days more than in May.

The backlog of finished products makes it difficult for some spinning enterprises to run their capital.

Therefore, limiting purchase, limiting production and going stock is still the main idea of spinning enterprises, and the process will keep cotton prices under pressure.

In addition, in order to reduce production costs, in June, more than 60% spinning enterprises have reduced the proportion of cotton blending, and the ratio of cotton to cotton has dropped by about 15%. The proportion of future reduction is likely to continue to increase.

The gap between Zheng and cotton continues to drop.

In recent days, Zheng cotton's total positions and headroom positions have continuously refreshed the historical record. We can use the popularity of the market to analyze the trend of its later stage.

From the analysis of post positions, Zheng cotton 1201 contracts are relatively scattered, mostly based on the rebound and lighten up, and the momentum is weak.

In July 20th, the proportion of the first 10 seats of the Zheng cotton 1201 contract reached 1:1.7, and the margin difference reached billions, and short positions were slightly better in terms of market sentiment.

When the fundamentals and technology are relatively empty, we judge.