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Zheng Cotton'S Fierce Competition And High Volume Of &Nbsp, The Focus Is Still On The Policy Of Purchasing And Storage.

2011/7/21 17:38:00 35

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In July 20th, Zheng cotton opened up and left low, and the 1201 position of the main contract continued to increase, with a total turnover of nearly 50 thousand hands, reaching a maximum of 696 thousand hands and a record high.

But judging from the trend of the market,

Zheng cotton

The main contract continued to oscillate for about a week in the vicinity of 21500. As one of the most active varieties in recent years, cotton performance is obviously weaker than that of other commodities, while the position keeps increasing. What is the reason?

The author thinks that the market is still stuck in the understanding of the temporary storage and purchase plan for the next year.

Unlike the cotton purchase and storage policy in previous years, the characteristics of the temporary storage and purchase plan in 2011 are mainly two points: first, the price limit is not limited, and the required lint can be delivered to the store; the two is to link up the purchase price of seed cotton, the price of cotton seed and the price of lint, and the execution time of the temporary purchase and storage is also the time when the new cotton concentrates to be listed, purchased and processed.

It is also aimed at stabilizing the domestic cotton supply in order to protect the interests of cotton farmers.

From the perspective of characteristics, if

Cotton price

At a level of 19800 yuan / ton, the 2011 year's temporary storage and purchase plan may not be launched. (the new cotton price has fallen below 19800 yuan / ton for 5 consecutive working days, and the state has only started the temporary storage and purchase plan). The state will consider importing foreign cotton to fill the Treasury. The increase in the amount of contracted foreign cotton will support the US market price and indirectly affect the domestic cotton price level. If the new year's cotton price continues to fall, it will be lower than the 1000 yuan in the 19800 yuan / ton storage price, which will attract traders to buy operation in spot or electronic market.

It has a supporting role for domestic cotton market.

From the perspective of characteristics two, cotton prices are linked to seed cotton purchase price and cotton seed price, on the one hand, to protect cotton growers' income; on the other hand, link cotton prices with edible agricultural products.

The downstream products of cottonseed are cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal. Cottonseed oil can be used as an alternative to edible oil and cottonseed meal can be used as a feed.

When the price of edible agricultural products goes up, the price of cottonseed will go up, and the price of seed cotton will be raised according to the price of 19800 yuan / ton of lint.

It is estimated that the price of the new cotton acquisition center will be 3.5 yuan -5 yuan / Jin.

From the perspective of logic, at present

Cotton market

No more bad news came out, backed by the reserve price support. In the period of validity of the temporary storage and purchase plan, the cotton price fell little. Once the weather factors changed to the direction of unfavorable cotton production or the macro policy relaxed, cotton prices still had much room for imagination.

In addition, the rise of surrounding commodities has also created an atmosphere for many parties.

At the same time, at present, the resources available for delivery in the cotton market are insufficient. The Xinjiang cotton spot with better quality is still higher than the futures price. Even if the latter prices fall, it will take some time for the Xinjiang cotton to be re registered as warehouse receipts.

However, there is much uncertainty in the above inference, which requires weather, policy and the rising atmosphere of surrounding commodities.

At present, the promotion of cotton prices is more anticipated and capital. Under the condition that many factors can not be clearly implemented, the substantial increase may lead to the gradual weakening of the Zhengyang cotton market. However, in the early days of the new cotton listing, the market will not be ruled out because of the weather or other events.

If there is no coordination of cotton prices with weather and policy, when the new cotton comes into the market, it will be more likely that the cotton will continue to fall back to the storage price.