Looking Back At &Nbsp, "Cotton" Is Stained With Wet Clothes.

Recently, the collapse of the two leading enterprises in Dongguan has led to a great shock in the market. With the over 2000 employees' toy business, the "Yi Yi" and the textile enterprise "Ding Jia" suddenly collapsed.

Textile industry sources said that this round of manufacturing difficulties caused 10% of Dongguan's textile enterprises to be overburdened.

One leaf knows the autumn.

Although it is not clear "spinning enterprises"

In Xinye, Henan, the reporter understands that the market sentiment is aggravated because of the sharp decline in cotton yarn orders and even no single connection.

In order to avoid risks, local textile enterprises are mostly on the sidelines. The 130 textile enterprises in the county have about 90 holidays, and the downtime rate is as high as 70%.

In Changting, Fujian, the reporter learned that nearly 600 thousand spindles of textile production capacity so far, less than 300 thousand spindles, some factories basically shut down, some shut down part of the production line, coupled with tight banking, loan interest rates increased, raw material prices were unstable and processing fees rose, and other factors, textile enterprises continue to pressure production increased.

In Handan, Hebei, recently, level three.

Downstream industry is so "vulnerable", looking back upstream, cotton price "roller coaster" quotes can be described as "shocking".

Since the beginning of the early September of last year, the cotton market has started to accelerate. After the Spring Festival this year, prices have been oscillating downward, and almost completed a "roller coaster" game.

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic CPI index has been rising steadily, while cotton prices have gone down step by step, and spot prices have even fallen below the 19800 yuan / ton purchase and storage guidance price.

What is going on in the market? How will the Zheng cotton futures run in the second half of the year, when CPI has hit a new high and cotton prices have fallen by nearly 40% after the year?

"The weak market in the first half of the cotton market is mainly caused by the lack of supply and demand."

Cotton cotton studio Zhao Zhonghua thinks so.

The latest US Department of agriculture July report shows that cotton's initial inventory has been raised, and output and consumption have been cut.

"Initial inventory increases were mainly due to increased inventories in the US and India, and global year-end stocks increased by nearly 6% to 51 million packages.

In July, global cotton consumption dropped by nearly 2% due to the abundant stock of cotton mills and the increase of polyester substitution for cotton in cotton textiles.

The slowdown in demand has led to a decline in imports from some countries, of which China's demand has fallen by more than half.

In the late part of this year, abundant supply and high yield of new cotton are expected to continue to suppress cotton prices.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, as of July 22nd, there were still 960 thousand tons of lint inventory in the purchase and sale link. At present, the sales volume is 100 thousand tons per week. According to this schedule, there are still 500 thousand tons of cotton for sale at the end of this year, and the cotton production in the the Yellow River river basin is expected to be ahead of schedule, and the average yield of the main cotton producing areas is expected to be normal.

Huang Junfei, a cotton analyst at Yangtze futures, has recently participated in a survey of Hubei cotton industry chain jointly organized by their company and Hubei Yinfeng group. He told reporters that the larger inventory of industrial chains is the main reason for the fall in cotton prices.

"From the perspective of the three industry chains of cotton growers, cotton processing enterprises and textile enterprises, there is a certain stock risk.

As for cotton growers, there are still a small number of farmers who are reluctant to sell last year, which leads to the fact that there are still some seed cotton not sold yet, but the proportion is not very large.

The most serious inventory problem is cotton processing enterprises.

From the survey, only a small number of enterprises have emptied their inventory. In general, small and medium-sized cotton processing enterprises have about 1000 tons of lint inventory, and some enterprises even exceed 2000 tons of inventory, accounting for about 25% of their annual sales volume, forming a considerable inventory pressure.

In terms of textile enterprises, inventory is mainly concentrated on cotton yarn.

The current situation in the textile industry is that the shipment of cotton yarn is difficult, and sales can not be opened, and the backlog of cotton yarn stock can be used in September.

Because of poor sales, textile enterprises generally use the way of purchasing according to needs in cotton procurement, and there are few cotton stocks.

"Generally speaking, the current stock increase is due to the poor demand in the downstream industry chain. If demand can not be effectively improved, the current stalemate in the cotton industry will not be broken."

Huang Junfei made such a judgement.

A report recently released by the Ministry of industry and Commerce on the operation of the textile enterprises in the first half of this year said that the fall in cotton prices had a greater impact on the textile industry, mainly in three aspects: first, the deep atmosphere of the wait-and-see industry and the confidence of the industry.

Cotton prices continue to decline, leading enterprises to dare not place orders, inventory will increase, the whole industry chain sales sluggish.

The two is the increase in inventory and the decrease in operating rate.

Three, the profit margins are sharply compressed. At present, the price of 32 cotton yarns is 29500 yuan / ton, even if the cotton is purchased at the current price, the loss of ton yarn is around 1000 yuan.

According to the problems reflected in the report, due to the pressure of production cost, the influence of domestic textile enterprises on the international market has been affected, and domestic orders have been losing a lot.

Among them, from 1 to May, the number of cotton products imported from the United States dropped by 13.4%, while the number of cotton products imported from Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia increased by 9.4%, 9.1% and 10.1% respectively.

Many enterprises reflect that the order this year dropped by about 20%.

"Textile enterprises financing difficulties can not be ignored."

A cotton trader in Henan told reporters that the continuous increase in the deposit rate and interest rate not only increased the difficulty of loans from banks, but also increased the cost of private lending, which is particularly serious for small and medium-sized textile enterprises, which are mainly funded by private financing.

Data from the Ministry of industry and information also showed that interest rates in the textile industry increased by 37.8% from 1 to May this year, higher than the main revenue growth by 6.7 percentage points.

Huang Junfei said that due to the backlog of a large number of cotton stocks, business funds are quite tight, and many enterprises have chosen to cash in the mode of cotton pledge in warehouses.

In view of the textile and cotton market situation in the second half of the year, the reporter told cotton traders.