Evaporation On A Single Day Was 31 Billion 600 Million &Nbsp; High Speed Rail Plate Was Hit By A Rare Railway Debt.

A sudden accident seems to have caused the highly criticized Chinese high-speed rail to fall into a nightmare again.

Faced with pressure from all sides, the high-speed rail plate on the first day after the accident has almost gone green.

In July 25th, the high-speed rail concept plate collapsed, dragging down its total market value.

By the end of July 25th, after excluding the whole day's stocks in suspension, the total market capitalization of A shares with 33 high-speed rail stocks dropped rapidly to 420 billion 300 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 31 billion 631 million yuan compared with the previous trading day.

Among them, Jin Yi Industrial (601002.SH), Ding Han Technology (300011.SZ) and other five stocks were closed down.

China Southern car (601766.SH) and China North Locomotive (601299.SH) fell by more than 9.5%.

300150.SZ, 300001.SZ and 300213.SZ are temporary suspension.

In July 27th, there was a partial rebound in the high-speed rail sector.

The result of the accident has not yet come to light, but the capital market has taken the lead.

Listed companies involved in many links such as machinery manufacturing, computer industry and chemical industry chain have suffered from the pain of the two grade market.

High speed rail shares fell sharply

"From the market point of view, the accident may have an impact on the railway bidding.

In short,

Led by EMU manufacturers, China Southern car and China north car - two and its four subsidiary companies monopolized 95% of the domestic railway locomotive manufacturing market.

The D3115 of the accident is CRH2, which is produced by Kawasaki heavy industries, South Korea, and D301. It is CRH1 type of Bombardier South car Sifang.

Kyodo News Agency reported that CRH2 was supplied by Kawasaki heavy industries, China.

However, Shanghai local brokerage industry machinery industry analysts believe that the growth of CSR and North car within two years is not a problem.

"According to the valuation of the existing orders of CSR and CNR, it is enough to guarantee more than 30% growth in two years.

At present, the dynamic price earnings ratio of the two is less than 20 times, which is below the average level of the machinery industry, so there is room for improvement.

But he also pointed out that the performance of 2013 is still not well judged.

"If the survey results are deep-seated reasons, such as China's existing technology can not digest and absorb 300 kilometers per hour, then the government may be cautious and take measures such as deceleration, which will have an impact on the South car and the north car."

Compared with South car and North car, the impact of railway infrastructure is relatively small.

The above machinery industry analysts said that the climax of high-speed rail infrastructure construction has passed, and the next most important thing is pportation equipment. Therefore, the impact on the South and North cars is greater than infrastructure.

Trying to avoid the fate of fate by halt, century rier, tareed and Jia hung Fei hung fell even worse.

The three companies issued a notice in the morning of July 25th, saying that because the rumors of the public media about the company may have a greater impact on the price of the company's stock paction, they applied for temporary suspension.

The move was dissatisfied with some investors.

But Xu Guangfu believes that temporary suspension is within the permitted scope of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and is actually a kind of protection for shareholders.

Nevertheless, the three companies still have a painful experience after resumption.

The marginal chemical industry is also not immune.

By the end of July 25th, 300082.SZ, 000887.SZ and 300041.SZ had all dropped to varying degrees.

However, analysts in the chemical industry are more optimistic about this performance. "High speed rail revenues account for only a small proportion of the total revenue of these companies and have little impact on the company.

In fact, the market amplified the pessimism, which led to the sharp fluctuation of the two tier market.

According to media reports, a total of 32 high-speed rail enterprises involved, the short-term impact is being highlighted, but the long-term impact and trend is unknown.

"If accidents are identified as human factors and contingency, the negative effects should be short-term.

However, if the technology is not mature enough, it shows that there is a hidden danger in the communication of high speed rail in China, so the management may slow down.

This will have an impact on all aspects of procurement, especially for some high-speed rail purchases of over 90%.

If the medium and long term slowdown, these enterprises will have a serious impact. "

Xu Guangfu said.

However, he also optimistic that the sharp fluctuations in the market "reflect the consciousness of the market to avoid short-term, investment tends to be conservative and stable".

Railway bonds are cold

Affected by the accident, the high-speed rail plate almost floats green.

However, the Ministry of Railways's troubles are more than that. In July 21st, the short tender offer was a rare phenomenon in the history of issuing bonds.

On the morning of July 21st, the Ministry of Railways tender for the third issue of this year.

The Ministry of Railways began financing the bond market in 2001.

Through the comprehensive evaluation of Dagong international credit rating Co., Ltd., the issuer's long-term credit rating is AAA, and the rating outlook is stable.

A total of three short-term financing bills were issued this year. The coupon rates for the first two periods were 4.10% and 4.35% respectively, and this interest rate rose to 5.18%.

However, why does the railway credit with high credit rating and high interest rate flow?

Luo Renjian, a researcher with the Comprehensive Transportation Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, told the times weekly reporter that this was mainly determined by the money market.

"At present, market funds are tight, overnight lending rates are rising, stock market funds are scarce, and big institutions are short of money."

But Zhao Jian, a professor at Beijing Jiaotong University, has different views. He told the times weekly reporter that there was a lack of confidence in the construction of the high-speed rail.

"This should not be built. We should build a deficit."

The US Bank of America (Merrill Lynch) index showed that China's railway ministry bonds had fallen by 0.45% in July on the occasion of the rise of global railway debt.

Luo Renjian explained that the situation at home and abroad is different, the current bank lending rate and short-term interest rate are very high, many bonds are not out, not only railway debt.

Insiders said that in recent years, high-speed rail investment has gone up rapidly, but there are few funds from the financial allocation.

Undoubtedly, it is difficult for the Ministry of Railways to build high speed railways with its own funds.

Raising funds through bonds, bank loans and local government financing platforms has finally become the main source of funds for high-speed rail.

Although high-speed rail has played a catalytic role in real estate and urban construction, it has not benefited from it, but has lost money.

According to the 2010 financial report released by the Ministry of railways, the total liabilities rose from 1 trillion and 300 billion yuan at the end of 2009 to 1 trillion and 890 billion yuan, and the debt ratio was 57.44%. The debt warning line, which is 60%, is not far away.

At the end of the first quarter of 2011, the Ministry of railways had a total liabilities of 19836 billion yuan, with an asset liability ratio of 58.24%.

With the expansion of railway construction investment scale, the debt ratio is likely to further improve, and the Ministry of Railways needs to pay attention to its financial stability.

Luo Renjian believes that debt is a problem, but the key is whether the state has financial support, which is the real problem.

The high debt ratio or a large amount of investment comes from a large number of high-speed rail projects launched in recent years.

Although the revenue and freight revenue of the Ministry of railways have increased steadily in the past three years, its net asset yield has been on the low side. In 2008, -2010 was -1.31%, 0.24% and 0% respectively.

A source close to the Ministry of Railways said that this was due to the long-term regulation of railway freight rates and the rising cost of railway operation.

As a matter of fact, most of the Ministry of railways can not pay for these liabilities, and the ultimate possibility is that they will be subsidised or covered by the government.

Luo Renjian has repeatedly stressed that "high-speed rail belongs to the construction of public infrastructure. If the investment is increased, it will generate debts, and the government will subsidize itself if it is not enough, because the railway is not a common manufacturing industry, but a public infrastructure."

But the question is whether government subsidies are really fully used in high-speed rail construction.

Will the high debt rate caused by high-speed rail construction generate a debt crisis?

Zhao Jian was very sure to say "yes".