Policy Is Expected To Encounter A Cold Spell

This Monday Market After the collapse, the weak side plate began to shake. Shanghai composite index once again broke 1664-2319 of the original. Rise The trend line will exceed the time and space of adjustment. market Expect.

Policy "warming expectations" liquidity has been hindered. Gross domestic product The actual inflation level reflected by the growth rate is higher than expected. The Politburo conference focuses on "stabilizing prices, adjusting structure, protecting people's livelihood and promoting harmony". Regulation In the real estate regulation and control, we must adhere to the unswervingly unswervingly unswervingly unswervingly change our direction. This makes the market right. policy Hope for relaxation soon falls.

The CBRC has banned the flow of credit funds into the real estate market, prohibits the renewal of loans for local financing platforms and the repayment of new loans, which will have a great impact on the market funds.

The three quarter A share financing has further increased, which will directly impact the capital side of A shares. It is expected that the CPI will be higher in July. The real fall may have to wait until the fourth quarter. The expectation of "growth guarantee" expected by the market is not urgent from the overall perspective, and the difficulty of SMEs is also a product of "structural adjustment" to some extent.

The main task of the current macroeconomic regulation and control is to control prices and adjust house prices. Before inflation falls, the policy tightening pattern is hard to change. It is still possible to raise interest rates and raise reserve requirements in the near future. The overall policy environment in the three quarter will still be tight, that is, the end of the policy will run through the three quarter of the year, which is not related to the two words expected by the market. Due to return to the market recognized "valuation bottom", the short term has a certain resilience, but there is no good rebound resilience.

Based on the expectation that the policy environment under "CPI and GDP" is better than that of CPI and GDP in the second half of the year, the market will pay more attention to the positive factors of directional loosening in policy, but this needs a process. Inflation control is still the primary task of economic work, but as inflation control expectations increase, there may be more and more policies aimed at actively adjusting the economic structure and achieving transformation and upgrading. Consumers and emerging products are expected to gradually gain the favor of investors.