Search For Entanglements In The Market
The impact of the European debt crisis and the announcement of half year economic data has seen many big things in the market this week.
At the beginning of the week there was a downward motion, and the market quickly picked up, and the Shanghai composite index returned to the 2800 point area.
No matter whether there is a mid market quotation or whether it is a structured market, the current region should be a relatively bottom area.
At present, the trend of the market may be more "awkward", less pleasant, and no "speed and passion" will be staged.
Now let's argue.
CPI
It is the highest in June or the highest in July and August. It has no practical significance. The rapid decline in the three quarter of the four quarter has basically become a reality.
The stock market sees expectations, so long as we see the certainty of the inflection point, the market will not be entangled again.
That is to say, the "inflation ceiling" has been seen by most of the funds, so the focus of attention is shifting, that is, will the "bottom of the economy" synchronize.
June economy
data
Obviously better than market expectations, strengthened the judgment of "soft landing" of the economy, and undoubtedly gave the market a reassurance.
Although the present policy has not yet been relaxed, at least it is no longer simply emphasizing austerity. Even if there are monetary policy actions, such as raising interest rates and raising standards, it can not simply be considered as a tightening of tightening measures.
It is not possible to control prices on the premise of completely sacrificing economic growth. When the latest interest rate was introduced, management has already had a good idea of the economic performance of the first half of the year.
In the 4-5 month of this year, the growth rate of industrial added value declined, while fixed asset investment remained strong during the same period, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased steadily.
That is to say, economic momentum continues to weaken and demand growth momentum is more abundant, which means that the reason for the weakening of economic momentum at that time is not the slowdown in demand, but the shortage of supply.
So the manufacturing industry inventory level is probably not high, "go to inventory" time and amplitude is not big, and the protection of housing, water conservancy investment acceleration and car and housing consumption will directly boost the economic boom, which makes the three quarter of the economy bottomed out to become a probability event.
The near future
Market
The trend will be more tangled, but this does not mean that stocks will be entangled.
Banks, real estate and iron and steel "big guys" do not have excess returns on them in the current market environment.
This week, the gem is very strong. Although its absolute valuation is still far higher than some undervalued varieties, it is only a drop in the market that there will always be trading opportunities. At this time, we should not insist on any underestimation of the margin of safety.
On the disk, we can see that sometimes there is no need for volume, there will also be large area stocks rising, or even large stock trading.
From the perspective of rising stock types, the theme stocks of Small Cap Growth and super low price are best, such as strong regional hot spots this week. The concept of Zhoushan and Tibet concept are representative.
Although the reasons for their speculation are not the same, but there are funds to dare to hype, the bottom line is that the current market will not have a great systemic risk, and does not require too much money.
As an ordinary investor, it might be profitable to keep up with these hot spots. For example, the Tibet plate may have stage opportunities before July 20th, and preferably band operation.
In addition, the appreciation of RMB is continuing.
benefit
The concept is also worth noting, such as paper making, aviation and so on.
Just remember, since it is hype, short-term thinking should be maintained.
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