The Central Bank Adjusts The Way To Encirclement "Hot Money" &Nbsp, And RMB Internationalization Is Questioned.
For two years, the central bank, which has been promoting the support policy of RMB internationalization, has started the word "suspension" in the latest relevant documents.
In July 18th, the second division of the central bank's cargo administration asked for the suspension of domestic enterprises from overseas.
Bank
Direct integration into Renminbi (except trade finance) and foreign investment betting loan are also included.
Bad loans refer to loans to foreign banks from the difference between total investment and registered capital of foreign invested enterprises.
The central bankers explained that the reason for this is "the current".
Macroscopic
The background of regulation and prudent monetary policy is taken into consideration.
Since the launch of the pilot cross-border RMB settlement in July 2009, the internationalization of RMB has been going on.
foreign exchange
The phenomenon of rapid increase in reserves and imbalance in payment structure goes hand in hand.
This raises the question: how much of the momentum of RMB internationalization has been brought about by the appreciation of RMB?
Is there any need to adjust the path of RMB internationalization?
The external questions are mainly based on the data of the central bank's fourth quarter monetary policy report in 2010: the RMB settlement business is 506 billion 300 million yuan, and the import settlement accounts for about 85%-90%.
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Finance
Yin Jianfeng, deputy director of the Institute, said that in cross-border settlement, the use of Renminbi in export trade was relatively small, resulting in a currency substitution phenomenon in cross-border trade, and the original demand for foreign exchange was deposited in the central bank.
How much of the import settlement increment is really for the sake of imports, how many fish in troubled waters, although the central bank has no way to judge, but has begun to take systematic preventive measures. Before the issuance of the aforementioned mail announcement, the central bank issued the "clear understanding of the relevant issues related to the clear cross-border RMB business", pointing out in detail the details of the operation of the bank's specific account when handling cross-border capital pfer, and asked the bank to accurately submit business information to the central bank.
Encircling the hot money of the renminbi
The reasons for the recent increase in demand for import settlement are different from those in the previous round.
Appeared in October last year.
BOC Hong Kong
The amount of RMB settlement is running out because of the fact that many clearing accounts do not apply to trade terms according to regulations. In fact, arbitrage and arbitrage are more often due to the domestic credit crunch and the increase in the cost of RMB financing.
"The mainland now pays more renminbi to Hongkong than Hongkong pays to the mainland. The ratio is 2: 1, so the net remittance is to Hongkong.
Many companies want to sell the renminbi, some of which are reluctant to sell is appreciation, but many enterprises need to sell them.
Chen Delin, President of the Hongkong monetary authority, is accepting Caixin.
New century
This is supported by an exclusive interview.
The beginning of the internationalization of RMB makes cross-border capital flows not only in the form of foreign exchange, but also in the form of RMB.
Regulating the cross-border movement of RMB and blocking the "hot money" of RMB become another problem in the internationalization of RMB.
With the central bank allowing direct investment in Renminbi, capital flows under capital account are also increasing.
According to the central bank statistics, by the end of 2011 4, the total amount of RMB cross-border investment and financing pactions in each pilot area was 113 billion 344 million yuan.
Therefore, the central bank clearly pointed out in the aforementioned mail: "from now on, the head office of the people's Bank of China will suspend the acceptance of domestic enterprises directly into the renminbi business from overseas banks (including foreign funded enterprises' bank loans with different amounts of bets, except for trade financing), and other businesses such as the eastern share loan will be reported to the head office for approval by the Guangzhou regional settlement bank, which is reported to me by the original procedure."
The industry believes that this is mainly to regulate the cross-border trade settlement of RMB.
Because of the interest spread between Hongkong and the mainland, enterprises will have the desire to integrate into the renminbi from abroad.
Ye Xiang, general manager of Huixin capital, believes that some special industries in China, such as real estate companies, also need funds.
Close to the senior people of the central bank, telling the new century of Caixin, there is now a way for mainland enterprises to provide guarantees and foreign enterprises such as Hongkong enterprises to borrow money. This is mainly due to the large spread between Hongkong and the mainland.
A safe official said that this way of external loan will form a certain external debt. Before importing direct purchase of foreign exchange, importing no need to purchase foreign exchange, and trade financing, equivalent to postponed payment, will certainly have some impact on China. "Suspension" does not mean that the internationalization process of the RMB is more cautious. "The central bank has never avoided the risk of RMB internationalization, but there are still some uncertainties to consider."
The central bank hopes that this will enable the renminbi to fly overseas for a while instead of quickly returning to the mainland. On the other hand, it can regulate cross-border capital flows, namely, blocking the "hot money" of the renminbi.
In addition, close to the central bank's informed sources, the central bank is about to introduce relevant documents on the RMB financing of domestic banking financial institutions overseas projects, so as to further regulate domestic financial institutions in overseas projects such as RMB financing and other related businesses.
The central bank also explicitly stated in the notice on the issues related to the clear cross-border RMB business that, in order to ensure the safe and orderly development of relevant businesses and prevent hot money inflow, the RMB FDI will not accept the state restrictions and key regulatory items.
The requirements for newly established enterprises such as capital contribution, merger and acquisition of domestic enterprises, and shareholder loans shall be examined and approved according to the case.
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Pushing up foreign reserves?
Another reason for accelerating the internationalization of RMB internationalization is "pushing up foreign exchange reserves". But is this really the case?
In July 12th, the central bank announced that as of the first half of this year, the balance of the country's foreign exchange reserves was 3 trillion and 197 billion 500 million.
dollar
An increase of 30.3% over the same period last year.
Ye Xiang believes that the increase in external reserves is an inevitable stage in the internationalization of RMB.
This is related to China's trade structure. China's trade surplus is mainly to the developed countries, and the developed countries such as Europe and the United States pay mainly in US dollars.
The acceptance and recognition rate of RMB in developing countries such as Brazil and ASEAN is relatively high, and it is also the main counterparty of China's trade deficit.
However, the volume of trade with these countries is small. Under such trade structure, the increase of foreign reserves is inevitable.
Xing Yujing, deputy director of the second division of the central bank, explained earlier that this was due to the export tax rebate problem. The list of cross border RMB settlement for export enterprises was determined later. It was determined at the end of last year, which means that the export business's recovery of RMB business started only at the end of last year. At the same time, the import business paid RMB business has been developing for a long time, resulting in a larger temporary gap between the two.
A correspondent in charge of cross border trade settlement said to the new century reporter of Caixin that the current payment structure had improved. There were more than 67000 export tax rebate enterprises confirmed at the end of last year. After the pilot is confirmed, the business cycle has already been in the official trade stage, and it should have been better than the end of last year.
So far, market analysts have used the data provided by the central bank as at the end of last year, and no latest data have been released.
According to the aforementioned senior official, the stock of RMB has about 500000000000 Yuan in Hongkong, which is equivalent to about 90000000000 US dollars, which is "a drop in the bucket" compared with the existing foreign exchange reserve.
This part of the RMB money deposited in Hongkong has two reasons: first, when the RMB appreciation is expected, some overseas enterprises take the renminbi and deposit it as an appreciation asset; two, the reason for the time lag; there are more than 6.7 enterprises in the mainland receiving renminbi, from signing contracts to knowing the market, there will be a period of time, "can not see the temporary trend", now Hongkong has slowly had a tendency to pay and recover RMB 1: 1.
At present, the RMB reflux channel is relatively narrow, but this is also a gradual process.
However, financial experts
Yu Yongding
Recently, a forum in Tsinghua University said that the current effect of RMB internationalization is totally different from the original intention, whether it is foreign exchange reserve or reduction.
exchange rate
Risks have not achieved the desired results, and RMB internationalization should be matched with a series of reforms such as capital account liberalization.
Those close to the foreign exchange regulators said that it is not a problem to promote convertibility under the existing conditions. The monitoring of cross-border capital flows can also be resolved through closed account operations, which is easier than blocking the various "gray channels" at present.
Path pattern
The industry has long been controversial about the specific path of RMB internationalization and the opening speed of capital account.
Although the central bank has always said that there is no clear path to internationalization of RMB and the opening speed under capital account, all policies are mainly to meet the needs of enterprises and actual needs.
A person close to the central bank said that according to the current mode, this path has already been formed: the renminbi has gone out in the form of trade, taking the offshore market of Hongkong as a buffer zone, starting the volume growth overseas and promoting the acceptance of other countries.
According to the central bank statistics, 11 countries (regions) have signed a domestic currency swap agreement with China, with a total scale of 834 billion 200 million yuan, and the cross-border trade settlement of RMB has expanded to 126 countries (regions). In the first quarter of 2011, the total amount of RMB settlement reached 360 billion 320 million yuan.
At present, 300 billion yuan of RMB deposits have been deposited in Hongkong.
Yin Jianfeng said that Hongkong's financial products in Renminbi denominated pactions are very scarce. For example, bonds denominated in Renminbi, under the support of the central government, still only have a deposit of less than 1/4 yuan.
He believes that the initial stage of RMB internationalization should be gradual capital outlay and the construction of a global industrial chain dominated by Chinese pnational corporations.
Some people questioned that in the current internationalization process, the holders of offshore renminbi were mainly held for gambling appreciation, which led to the fact that the renminbi was unwilling to be thrown out, the renminbi could not fully flow in Hongkong and abroad, and it was also contrary to the initial intention of RMB internationalization.
Huang Yiping, chief economist of Caixin new century, said that whether the renminbi can truly become an international currency is not determined by China but by the international market.
"Once RMB appreciation potential is gradually disappearing, the willingness of overseas individuals and institutions to hold renminbi will decline linearly."
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