The Ministry Of Housing Said The &Nbsp Was Not Abolished Within The Year Of Purchase Restriction; The Three Line Restriction List Was Issued In August.

"It is not yet certain, but it is certain that the purchase will not be cancelled within the year." In view of the new round of restriction cities list being drafted by the Ministry of housing, an official of the Ministry of housing said that the second half of the year policy There is little chance of relaxation.

On July 22nd, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the CPC held a meeting that it is necessary to uphold the keynote of unswervingly unswervingly changing the direction of the real estate regulation, and not to relax the intensity. In July 12th, the State Council held a standing meeting that it would further expand the scope of the purchase restriction and curb the rapid rise of the housing prices in the two or three cities. According to some experts, the restriction will continue to be implemented to the beginning of 2012, and in the next 1-2 years, the real estate market will have substantial adjustment.

"As long as the central control policy remains unchanged," Restriction order " And so on, housing prices are "steady and slight drop", conversely, "stability, perturbed, balance" is the main theme. In the next 1 years, the real estate market will continue to shrink or stabilize price, or the image is "warm boiled frog". Gu Haibo, a senior economist at the Shanghai Urban Economic Association, told the "China Times" reporter that at present, stability is overwhelming, and the fluctuation of house prices will not be too great. The result of this "Ming regulation and dark city" is relatively ideal.

As for the current focus of public attention, it is the time limit for the purchase of the three line city list when selected and completed. Zhang Dawei, director of Zhongyuan Real estate, predicted in an interview with our reporter in July 28th that "at the end of August, we should deal with Jin nine silver ten."

　 Restriction on "digestion" in urban areas

Since April, when Beijing first started and immediately implemented the purchase order in 43 cities across the country, the relevant urban property market was "limited". Judging from the first half of this year, the volume of housing has been greatly reduced whether it is a forward or a temporary one. Moreover, the chain reaction brought by the restriction also includes the serious backlog of housing stock, the blocked development of funds and the willingness to take land.

Up to now, Beijing commercial housing can sell 108 thousand housing units, and the Beijing property market can sell houses. Digestion The cycle is approaching 15 months, which is 3 times that of 2009. The same situation also appeared in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Ningbo and other key cities. Central Plains real estate monitoring data show that Ningbo's commercial housing inventory digestion cycle has reached 29 months, Hangzhou 22 months, Shanghai 13 months, Shenzhen, Wuhan and Suzhou all over 15 months.

Not only the developers, but also the local governments that are deeply affected by the restriction, the "bleak" land sales report card is a clear proof. Developers' enthusiasm declined, which directly led to a sharp decline in land leasing income. In July 19th, the 130 semi annual reports on land leasing in cities nationwide also showed that land leasing fees in 6 cities such as Beijing and Shanghai were lower than the same period last year. The smallest drop in Shanghai reached 21.97%, while 5 cities rose two or three cities.

In this regard, Gu Haibo believes that land finance constraints on the two or three line city purchase, because the implementation of the purchase order depends on the enthusiasm of local governments. "Last year, the two or three line city has become a hot spot for real estate developers to invest." Chen Junceng, vice president of Beijing Zhejiang business association, told reporters that many of the sales of developers this year came from the two or three line cities that were not restricted to purchase. Many experts believe that the prices of some two or three tier cities are rising rapidly, partly due to the transfer of investment demand from the first tier cities after the "restriction".

A local official in Sichuan admits that with the further expansion of the restriction order, developers will postpone or take no land in the short term. Local land revenue will also be reduced. The implementation of the restriction policy is not positive. choice It's getting harder. "

Three line cities become new focus

"The rapid rise of housing prices in the two or three tier cities has caused concern among policymakers." Zhang Dawei said that cities with speculative capital squeezed out of the first tier cities due to restriction will lead to greater risks.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in June, the top 70 cities in China were two or three cities, including Shijiazhuang, Changsha, Urumqi, Dandong, Luoyang, Mudanjiang, Lanzhou, Kunming, Nanchang, Shenyang, Shenyang, Shenyang, and so on. Instead of "northern Guangzhou and Shenzhen", they became the main force, while the small ones ranked first in the 9.8% year-on-year increase.

According to the reporter, in addition to the capital cities that have already participated in the first round of restriction, those three line cities that are threatening to rise in house prices are especially concerned by the Ministry of housing, including Dandong, Qinhuangdao, Yichang and Shaoguan. In Qinhuangdao, official statistics show that in June, the price index of newly built commercial housing rose 8.6% compared to the same period last year, ranking second in the whole country.

It is worth noting that some of the three or four tier cities that have seen rapid increases in house prices in recent years are not in the list of restrictions, such as Yulin and Ordos. "These are the most active investors in the domestic property market, and housing prices have risen six or seven times or even ten times in five or six years." Recently, Zhang Yingguang, managing director of the Zhuang Ling consulting firm in Ordos, told the "China Times" reporter that the rise in housing prices in Ordos came from excessive hot money, and is estimated to be included in the restriction.

"In addition to the rapid rise in housing prices, real estate development investment growth is too fast, which has become another important reference index of the Ministry of housing's choice of restriction." Xie Yifeng, chairman of the knife and real estate consultancy agency, said that the number of Qinhuangdao is the most obvious. Since March this year, Qinhuangdao's real estate investment has increased significantly, reaching 1-5 yuan in 4 billion 568 million, an increase of 32.6% over the same period last year.

"The list of two or three line cities that will select a new round of restriction will mainly be based on two indicators of housing price increase and real estate development investment growth." An expert close to the Ministry of housing has confirmed that if a place is in line with the two standards proposed by the State Council, such as rising house prices and overheating the real estate market, the Ministry of housing will make corresponding supervision work without introducing the restriction policy.

"A new round of restriction cities will emerge from these cities." Xie Yifeng said that even those who had been included in the first batch of restricted cities would continue to purchase.

In this regard, Shanghai has made a choice. In July 26th, the Shanghai Housing Authority issued the "new Shanghai four article" clearly stipulates that the non household registration of residents to pay taxes, the date of declaration of personal income tax must comply with the "2 months before the purchase date of the accumulated 2 months," the provisions of the payment is not recognized.

Regulatory dilemma

Needless to say, the current real estate market regulation is at a critical stage. In the first half of the year, there was no drop in the price of urban housing, which has become a major factor in the central "restriction order". However, local governments that are dependent on land finance may not be happy.

Many experts believe that even if the second round of "restriction orders" swept across the country at the end of August, whether the property market will usher in "deep cooling" remains to be tested. From the market point of view, the number of three tier cities is large, the level of development of the property market is uneven, it is impossible to take all the restriction. "If you buy in a limited number of typical cities, it will not hurt the whole situation. The result is nothing more than pressing it to get there." Xie Yifeng said the restriction has been caught in a dilemma.

The restriction may be rolled out in the two or three tier cities, and the industry also has the voice of doubt: the blind implementation of the restriction on the two or three line cities that the housing prices are rising too fast will not only play a role in curbing the rise in housing prices, but will lead to a higher limit, which will affect the development of local economy.

However, judging from the "five new countries" recently released by the State Council, the goal of future real estate regulation is still to target housing prices and curb speculative demand for investment. "At the critical moment of market regulation," the five new countries "emphasized the restriction policy, showing the determination of the government's regulation and control." Many experts interviewed by our reporter believe that in the second half of the year, how to adjust the policy to the nodes that enable all parties to be able to balance is a major problem before the Ministry of housing.

"This is Regulation A true portrayal in a game state. Gu Haibo said that at the beginning of this year, under the repeated orders of the Ministry of housing and housing, the restriction policy of various places could be extended until now. If the restriction order is cancelled or relaxed, it is likely to cause a rebound in the market.