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The CBRC Said Housing Prices Fell By 5 To &Nbsp For Banks, And Bankers Disagreed.

2011/8/1 9:15:00 22

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Bank

The industry's views on the decline in housing prices are inconsistent with the views of the banking industry and regulators.

In order to prevent the risk of real estate loans, the CBRC conducted a new round of real estate loan stress test in the two quarter of this year, the chairman of the CBRC.

Ming Kang Liu

Recently, an interview with the media revealed that the mortgage pressure test showed that even if house prices fell by 50%, the banking industry could also bear it, that is, the banking industry would not be coerced by real estate.

On Friday, the bank shares launched a "Jedi counterattack" on the news. At the close of the bank, the bank shares were all red.

CITIC Bank

(601998.SH, 00998.HK) rose 7.82%, and most small and medium banks increased by more than 2%.

But the industry did not buy it. Many banking analysts doubted that they needed more comprehensive consideration and logic when analyzing the impact of a 50% drop in house prices on banks.

Stress test can not fully reflect bank risk under extreme conditions.

"Do not say 50%, even housing prices fell by 20%, banks can not afford to lose."

The first financial research department of a large state-owned research institute

"Daily" reporter said that the pressure test can only reflect the change of bad rate through static data. If from a dynamic perspective, in view of the 30%~40% of mortgage loans in the banking industry, and most of the mortgages are land or real estate, the systemic risks caused by falling house prices can not be ignored.

The CBRC began a real estate stress test last year. In April of this year, a new round of manometry was launched. In this year's "two sessions", Yan Qingmin, assistant chairman of the CBRC, has revealed that according to the stress test results, the price of housing has dropped by 30%, which is within the scope that banks can afford, and this Liu Mingkang's "50%" position is obviously more optimistic.

A number of banking analysts interviewed by this reporter said that stress tests do not fully reflect the risks of banks under extreme conditions.

Professor Zhu Jiaxiang, National Development Research Institute of Peking University, spent two years studying.

Finance

In the summer of 2010, in a public lecture at Peking University National Development Research Institute, Zhu Jiaxiang pointed out that the stress test model of domestic commercial banks was rough, and that he did not believe that house prices fell by 30% and that commercial banks could run normally.

In fact, the bank stress tests conducted by the United States and the European Union have been criticized by the market and can not accurately reflect the risks of banks.

So far, the CBRC and commercial banks have not announced the algorithms and models of stress testing. According to media reports, when conducting stress tests, commercial banks need to fill out a "mortgage pressure test form" containing two forms of "changes" and "details". They need to fill in the total amount, classification of commercial banks' real estate related loans, and the "loan to room ratio" information.

Besides, in addition to reporting personal housing loans, personal commercial housing loans, real estate development loans and land reserve loans, banks need to report real estate loans on the upstream and downstream industries and make corresponding stress tests.

1 trillion and 300 billion provision for risk?

In view of the complexity of the stress test itself, it is unavoidable to make a mistake.

The above-mentioned big state-owned sources revealed that when conducting the stress test, the bank will calculate the extent of the default rate of the loan according to the statistics of the previous years, especially the proportion of real estate loans, and estimate the increase of the loan default rate when the housing prices fall. However, he thinks that this calculation is only a static deduction of the data and does not take into account the dynamic global factors.

"For example, more than 30% of bank loans are mortgages, and mortgages are mostly real estate and land. Once house prices fall, the value of collateral will be greatly reduced and coverage will be insufficient. This impact is systemic."

In addition, the lack of data is also one of the factors that restrict stress testing. According to previous media reports, the four banks basically adopted the international small probability event model, which required higher data requirements.

Retail

Business and corporate business models need 5~7 years of historical data, but most banks are unable to provide them.

Not only that, stress testing is integral to the whole.

Macro economy

The volatility is not fully considered. Some analysts have pointed out that if the house price falls by 50%, the macroeconomic shock may completely destroy the hypothesis of the test. Under such circumstances, the extreme pressure test of housing price drop by 50% will lose its reference significance.

A banking analyst at a brokerage firm in Beijing told our reporter that the real estate loan stress test did not take into account the default risk of the local government financing platform.

"The current platform loan 60% repayment source is the land pfer fund, once the house price falls 50%, the land may shoot, the local debt repayment pressure will be unprecedented, will have the huge influence to the bank."

The bottom line of the regulator comes from adequate provision in the banking sector.

Liu Mingkang said that the bank's current provision is 1 trillion and 300 billion yuan, enough to withstand the real estate market as a result of regulation and control of housing prices brought about by the recent and medium and short-term risks.

According to the CBRC data, as of the end of 2010, the total amount of loans of the banking financial institutions was 50 trillion and 900 billion yuan, the provision coverage rate was 217.7%, and the non-performing loan ratio was 1.1%.

Although the current risk offset indicator is "healthy", the banking industry has revealed that if the house price falls by 20%, the bank's bad rate will rebound more than 1%.