Ren Zhiqiang: Purchase Orders Boosted Housing Prices In Some Cities

When the reporter walked into the office of Ren Zhiqiang, chairman of Huayuan Real Estate (4.60,0.01,0.22%), he was concentrating on the computer and saw the reporter come in. He laughed and said, "send this micro-blog," and press the "return key". For Ren Zhiqiang, who has about 4000000 fans, micro-blog has become the best platform for his opinions.

For the State Council's recent statement Purchase restriction order Ren Zhiqiang will continue to be strict with himself. "The consequence of the repeated expansion of the restriction order is that the two or three line cities, which are not high enough, will rise rapidly in the pressure of other cities."

"Just like the spread of floods, a levee overflows, and eventually the price of houses in the border towns is also unbearable." He said that in the first half of the year, the prices of some non restricted cities rose rapidly. If these cities were re restricted, the pressure of rising housing prices could only be further transmitted to other cities that were not restricted.

A price drop does not make a turnover.

As a faithful supporter of the market economy, Ren Zhiqiang talked about the impact of the restriction order on the real estate market, and chose to cut through the real estate market cycle.

"Our government has been eager for quick success and instant benefit, so we can't wait to come out with a policy today. We will see the effect tomorrow." Ren Zhiqiang told our reporter, "the production cycle is a cycle of several years, but our policies often fail to produce a cycle of production cycle and introduce new policies."

He said that commercial housing from land to build, a production cycle takes about 3 years to 4 years, but the current decision-making level for Real estate Market regulation policies basically come out year after year, or even two or three in a year. "Why not give the market more time to see the effect of the policy?"

Ren Zhiqiang believes that the government's idea is actually to use the fall in house prices in exchange for sales. As long as prices do not come down, the purchase will not stop. However, under the strict restriction policy, some people can not afford to buy, but are not eligible to buy, so even if house prices fall, they will not be able to change volume.

"Tightening is still normal in the coming period, but the purchase order will certainly not become a long-term policy." As for the question of how long the restriction order can last, Ren Zhiqiang shook his head and looked very reluctantly. "I don't know how long this policy can last," he said. "Maybe we must stick to the management's view that the house price has dropped or the economy has dropped."

"The purchase order will eventually be changed to other ways, such as taxes and fees. At present, China and Taiwan are all using taxes to regulate the property market. The tax and fee is a means of marketization, although there are also some unreasonable aspects, but it is far more reasonable than the restriction of Hongkong." Ren Zhiqiang added.

"No suggestion of non marketability".

Prior to this, almost every government's policies that are not conducive to the real estate industry will trigger Ren Zhiqiang's strong rebound. Starting from the No. 121 document in 2003, Ren Zhiqiang put forward suggestions and opinions to the competent authorities in the form of "ten thousand words" in light of the newly issued regulation and control policy. For example, in April of last year, when the "ten new countries" were released, Ren Zhiqiang wrote a ten thousand letter book, saying that "the new deal is a retrogression from the market economy to the planned economy".

But what is different from the past is that although Ren Zhiqiang is very disdainful of the news that the restriction order will expand the news, he does not intend to make a statement again.

"We have made suggestions before. It's useless." Ren Zhiqiang In other words, when the relevant authorities held a meeting, Qin Hong, deputy director of the policy research center of the Ministry of housing, suggested that the scope of the restriction order should not be extended to the two or three tier cities, at least to see the effect of the previous policy. However, the departments in charge insist on increasing the number of two or three line cities.

"Now, administrative regulation has flooded the entire real estate market. In addition to the restriction, some cities even limit their prices. Now that we are not marketization, we can not put forward some opinions that are not marketable. Administrative means can not be solved by a think tank. Ren Zhiqiang said.

The 2008 crash will not repeat itself.

The previous round of real estate regulation has led some cities to explore housing prices in depth. Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other parts of the city's housing prices fell even to 40%, and many other cities such as Beijing also dropped about 20%.

Ren Zhiqiang said that the situation in 2008 will not repeat itself because of the poor macroeconomic situation in 2008, and many homebuyers are facing unemployment and buyers' market problems. This year, the situation is not the same. It is a problem in the seller's market. Buyers can afford to buy a house, but they are not entitled to buy it.

Prior to this, Nie Meisheng, President of the National Federation of industry and commerce real estate association, predicted that the implementation of the restriction on urban housing prices will drop by 10%. But the decline in housing prices is only a "structural adjustment", that is, a large number of affordable housing market, pulling down the overall price of housing.

"Nie Meisheng said the concept of statistical significance, Beijing is now doing this," Ren Zhiqiang told reporters that Beijing "steady down" housing price control targets, is aimed at the price of new ordinary commercial housing, affordable housing will be included.

Ren Zhiqiang believes that for the restricted cities, the effect of property market regulation is more obvious in the first 5 months of this year, and the turnover is sluggish. The market expectations of homebuyers have changed, and the cities with rising house prices in large and medium cities are gradually increasing. In the three quarter, demand for housing will continue to be suppressed, and developers' financial pressure will also increase.

"In the second half of the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities with downward fluctuations in housing prices will continue to increase, but the rate of decline will not be great."