Jiangsu: Hot Money &Nbsp; Cotton Smashed People Harder Than Stones.

July 25th - 26, the main cotton producing area of Jiangsu Province, Yancheng. cotton The price of enterprises has dropped to twenty thousand, which is close to the new cotton purchase and storage price of 19 thousand and 800 yuan in 2011. Compared with the highest price of 34 thousand yuan per ton this year, the price has dropped by more than 14 thousand yuan.

Cotton prices jump up and down Cotton grower Very hurt. Zhou Changjun, a cotton farmer from the 91 village of Xi Tuan Town in Dafeng City, heard that the seed cotton purchase price is only 9 yuan per kilogram, which basically can not earn money. I heard that the new cotton market price may be even lower, watching the cotton in the earth loiter, his heart is particularly uncomfortable. Last year, the price was good. Zhou Changjun made 7 yuan of cotton and earned 1500 yuan per mu of cotton. This year can not be done. The rain in front of us is continuous, and the price is chilling. He said: "this year, the cost per mu is 1000 yuan. Unginned cotton Only 10-12 yuan per kilogram will make a profit. Under the current price situation, many people do not plan to grow cotton.

The days involved in cotton companies are also sad. Lianyungang new Suyu cotton storage and Transportation Co., Ltd. is the designated delivery Bank of the national cotton trading market. Li Wei, deputy head of the company's business, told reporters that the cotton market was unstable and the price changed greatly this year. At present, the stock of the company is as high as more than 10000 tons. Before last year, the price of cotton was relatively stable, and the stock of the company was generally maintained at two thousand or three thousand tons. In August, the stock of cotton should be sold out. Otherwise, the new cotton market will not be able to sell the old cotton. The more than 10000 tons still have pressure. I'll sell it first, but I don't know what I'll do in the second half. " According to him, the small cotton trader's life is more sad, inventory 500 tons, the pressed capital is 10 million, "even if discounts seven to eight million, for small cotton business is also a big number, can not go on, just go bankrupt."

Will cotton textile enterprises have a better life? Jiangsu Hong Mao Textile Co., Ltd. is a spinning enterprise, assistant general manager Pan Jiaqi said that since last year, cotton prices have skyrocketed, and enterprises have been eating large quantities of lint purchased at 32 thousand and 600 yuan and 26 thousand yuan per ton respectively, forming a stock of up to more than 160 tons. At present, the price of cotton yarn is only 28 thousand yuan per ton, while the processing cost per ton is still 7000 yuan.

According to the provincial Cotton Association, the normal stock of general cotton enterprises should be about 15 days, but at present, many enterprises have reached 25 days of inventory, and the normal stock of cotton enterprises is 30 days, and now the stock is 50 days. Acquisition, cotton ginning, cotton yarn, cotton cloth, clothing, each link increased 10 days inventory, the 5 link is 50 days. "According to the current daily inventory of 30 thousand tons, 50 days is 1 million 500 thousand tons." A large amount of inventory takes up the liquidity of textile enterprises, and at the same time, credit tightening is difficult. Enterprises are faced with the risk of capital chain breaking. Faced with such a situation, most enterprises can only make the helpless decision of "walking while watching".

In July 25th, the provincial Cotton Association held the seminar on cotton situation in Nantong in 2011. At the meeting, Gong Wenlong, director of the information center of China cotton reserve management company, suggested that the possibility of cotton price rise in the second half of the year was very small, and the chances of the decline were rather large. Judging from the supply and demand situation, the cotton production situation is better than expected this year, and the main cotton producing countries in the world are in a better position. According to the national cotton market monitoring system statistics, the global cotton saving (excluding China) 5 million 100 thousand tons. It is estimated that China's cotton output will be 7 million 390 thousand tons this year, consuming 9 million 930 thousand tons, with a gap of 2 million 540 thousand tons, which is lower than the global cotton Festival surplus. Judging from the trend of commodity prices, cotton prices are still at a high level compared with domestic agricultural prices, and there is still room for downfall. In addition, the production and marketing situation of downstream enterprises is not optimistic, and the demand for upstream industrial raw materials of cotton is likely to be suppressed.

However, the cotton market is not calm. Pan Honghui, deputy general manager of Suzhou Sales Department of Soochow Futures Co., Ltd. introduced that in July 15th, the cotton futures held by the Zhengzhou futures market reached 570 thousand hands, and jumped to 636 thousand hands on the 18 day, and the position increased 11% in a day. Only a day later, in July 19th, Zheng cotton reached the maximum holding capacity, reaching 818 thousand hands. He believes that super high cotton futures positions have exceeded the spot volume of cotton, which is very abnormal. There should be large scale capital in the cotton market and new speculative nodes are brewing.

It is understood that cotton prices in 2004 to 2008 during the outbreak of the financial crisis, has maintained a mild shock. In the financial crisis, it fell to the bottom. Last September, it returned to pre crisis levels, and then jumped from 17 thousand yuan per ton to 34 thousand and 200 yuan in early November. Before that, the price of domestic agricultural products rose, and only cotton was in the price depression. A lot of hot money is waiting. There are signs that a large number of hot money has been involved in October 2009, including a lot of inflow of cotton and cotton yarn. In the face of the current many idle funds around the "cotton", Gong Wenlong joked: "Audi is opened in, out of what is not known."

The venture capital speculation itself has a very high risk. Enterprises or individuals involved in hype must be responsible for their own profits and losses. Cotton farmers are often implicated in the process. They often earn less and lose more. This is very unfair. How to protect the interests of cotton farmers? A cotton trader who has been engaged in cotton trade for more than 20 years has introduced that in the United States, the cotton farmers association before planting has signed an agreement with the government. The agreement has clearly defined the basal planting area and the subsidy per unit area. The government directly subsidized cotton farmers according to the direct subsidy rate of 6.67 cents / pound, the subsidy area and the yield of subsidized units, which is used for cotton farmers to purchase seed fertilizers, and to pay for tractor farming. When cotton is listed, if the sum of direct subsidy and market price is lower than the national minimum protection price 72.40 cents / pound, cotton farmers can also get the difference subsidy. This has largely ensured the enthusiasm of cotton growers and helped stabilize cotton prices.

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