Raw Material Market: Periodicity That Has Never Disappeared

Since last year, the ups and downs of the raw materials market are really dazzling, with the most commonly used words in the industry: "there are too many complicated factors, and it is more and more difficult to judge the future trend."

But after in-depth analysis, we will find that the inherent rules of some industries have never disappeared, and have been playing an important role.

Zheng Zhiyi, honorary president of China Chemical Fiber Association, told reporters many times about the cyclical problems in the chemical fiber industry. He thought that after the financial crisis, the chemical fiber industry entered a new round of rising cycle, but this year ushered in a new adjustment period.

The impact of abnormal factors such as cotton prices fluctuate greatly, making this adjustment deeper and wider.

There is a marked reduction in the adjustment cycle.

From the price analysis of chemical fiber products, polyester for example, polyester filament in January

According to the reporter's understanding, in 2004, the China Chemical Fiber Association proposed that the operation of the industry has periodic operation rules.

Historically, the economic performance of the chemical fiber industry has been very tough.

In the past few years, there was a small adjustment in 4~5 and a major adjustment in 10 years or so.

In recent years, due to the acceleration of changes in the macroeconomic environment, coupled with the acceleration of technological progress and frequent fluctuations in crude oil prices, the frequency of cyclical fluctuations has accelerated significantly, with a basic period of 3 years.

According to Zheng Zhiyi analysis, according to the cyclical regularity of the chemical fiber industry over the past 30 years, the chemical fiber industry has entered a new rising cycle in 2010, but the industry adjustment will be more obvious.

Expected to be affected by the global economic recovery and the rise of crude oil price oscillation, the prices of synthetic fiber raw materials will also increase. The tight supply of cotton will support the high price of raw materials and the growth of downstream demand will also play a significant role in promoting the price of chemical fiber.

Chemical fiber industry is between petrochemical industry and textile industry, and raw materials account for it.

Taking 2008 as an example, the trend of world oil prices can be described as ups and downs, thus increasing the difficulty of judging and operating raw materials, and increasing business risks.

Moreover, the rapid decline of raw material prices will directly lead to the loss of cash in enterprises.

The continuous acceleration of this cyclical pformation has great impact on the operation and development of the industry. The difficulty and risk of enterprises in grasping production and operation is obviously increased.

After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, especially in the month of 9~10, crude oil and chemical fiber raw materials prices plunged sharply, and inventory losses, on the way, online raw materials and products were very heavy losses, which fully demonstrated this point.

Enterprises grasp business strategy through periodicity.

In a recent interview, reporters found that the grasp of periodicity has become an important factor in formulating business strategy.

A head of yarn business with viscose fiber as the main raw material told reporters that the operation of the enterprises in the first half of this year is not bad. In addition to the advantages of the enterprise's own technology and equipment, the key lies in accurately grasping the purchasing time of viscose fiber.

In the office of the responsible person, a carefully drawn chart of viscose fiber prices for many years is provided, with annotations in each node, and the periodicity of viscose prices is clear at this point.

"Not only this year, when the financial crisis is most serious, we also rely on this picture to accurately judge the situation, grasp the rhythm of raw material purchase, and avoid huge losses in cash flow."

The person in charge said.

According to the reporter, in the hands of viscose manufacturers, there will be a price chart of raw material pulp.

When the industry chain is not yet perfect enough to resist all the risks of raw material price fluctuation, it is a feasible way to analyze the periodicity.

Of course, periodicity is also reflected in the production process of products.

If prices rise sharply, the greater the production cycle, the greater the adverse impact.

Generally speaking, the storage period of polyester is about 15 days, and the stock cycle of cotton spinning and viscose enterprises is 30 days or even longer.

Reporter has done a series of reports on the viscose fiber industry in the earlier period, at that time the viscose industry has reached 80% loss.

In the whole chemical fiber industry, the viscose industry in the first half must be the worst.

At present, the price of 1.5D38mm viscose fiber is about 18000 yuan / ton; in June 1st, its price was about 21000 yuan / ton; in early May, its price was about 24000 yuan / ton; at the beginning of April, the price of the product was basically 27000 yuan / ton; at the end of February, its price was as high as 28500 yuan / ton in the month of ~3.

From the above data, we can see that after the Spring Festival of February, the price of viscose fiber and raw materials has maintained a high upward trend, which has been extended throughout March.

However, from the end of 4, the prices of related products began to plummet, and now it has fallen by more than 1000 yuan / ton.

In the past few years, the general situation of viscose enterprises is that when raw materials purchased at high levels are used for production, the price of viscose has plummeted to a level lower than that of raw materials, and the loss is obvious.

What's more, high priced raw materials imported from abroad are still being pported by sea, losing thousands of dollars per ton.

The price of cocoon silk has also risen sharply this year. The consequence of its high price is to curb demand.

A brand enterprise of Jiangsu household silk production bedding confessed to reporters that over the past two years, because of the increase of raw materials, the business difficulty and operation cost of enterprises have been greatly increased.

The price of white silk factory surged from 180 thousand yuan per ton in 2009 to 420 thousand yuan / ton at the highest time this year, and is still adjusting at a high level of 380 thousand yuan / ton.

However, for a long time groping in the silk industry, the person in charge of the enterprise found that the silk industry still has rules to follow. It runs for about 4 years, and the price of cocoon silk also rises and falls under the influence of supply and demand, output and other factors.

It is precisely because of the high risk of cocoon silk prices that the company has substantially reduced its stock of raw materials and only maintained its normal production level.

Study to extend the smooth running period of the industry

This year, crude oil prices were slightly consolidated in January. In late February, crude oil prices rose rapidly due to the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. In March 3rd, the WTI crude oil price was closed at $102.23 / barrel, the first time since September 2008, a breakthrough of 100 US dollars / barrel.

Japan's earthquake and nuclear crisis in March led to a sharp correction in oil prices. However, the escalation of the Libya conflict and the tension in the Middle East continued to increase oil supply worries, and crude oil prices rose again.

In early May, crude oil prices rebounded rapidly after being weakened by the weak economic data in Europe and the United States and the increase in crude oil inventories. After that, they maintained a fluctuating price of 100 US dollars / barrel, which continued to decline in early June and rebounded at the end of the month.

Although the price of crude oil still has an impact on the price trend of chemical fiber, the sharp rise and fall of cotton prices has made this connection less obvious.

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The overall operation of the chemical fiber industry in the first half of the year showed that the output, import and export volume, profit and other indicators still maintained a growth trend, but declined compared with the previous months. The downward trend of the growth rate in the second half of this year may be more obvious, which is basically consistent with the industry's cyclical judgement.

Zheng Junlin, Secretary General of China Chemical Fiber Association, told reporters that in the first half of the year, the key factors affecting the price fluctuation of chemical fiber and the adjustment and operation of the industry were cotton prices.

At the beginning of 2011, cotton prices continued to rise. By March, prices were beginning to receded under the influence of macro policies and the downward trend of futures prices, and became stable in May and June.

Due to the obvious substitution relationship between chemical fiber staple and cotton, especially polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber and cotton price trend has certain relevance.

The two is slow growth in demand.

Although the export volume of 1~5 chemical fiber reached 1 million 153 thousand and 800 tons, an increase of 45.62% over the same period, the data in the next few months will gradually decrease.

Because the rumors of export tax rebate adjustment affect enterprises' orders, the global economic recovery is not as optimistic as expected. The appreciation of RMB and the increase of comprehensive cost have also greatly affected exports.

Domestic demand has not changed much.

He predicts that the industry will be more difficult in the second half of the year, but the traditional peak season still exists.

Affected by the international financial crisis, the global economic recovery is expected to be a slow and iterative process. Therefore, the internal and external environment of the fiber industry and enterprises will be very complicated during the 12th Five-Year.

Taking the chemical fiber industry as an example, from the perspective of the operation rules of the market economy, China's chemical fiber industry will enter the normal state of overcapacity, but there will be different manifestations because of deep reasons: structural surplus, regional excess, product surplus, technical surplus, and total surplus, and will change with the change of cyclical operation.

According to the insiders, periodicity is an inevitable rule of the market economy, especially in the context of the rapid development of the worldwide knowledge-based economy and the globalization of the economy.

This not only brings risks and uncertainties to the stable operation of the industry, but also provides impetus and opportunity for eliminating backward production capacity, developing advanced productive forces, and accelerating the pformation of development mode.

The most urgent task is to study how to reduce the frequency and amplitude of cyclical fluctuations, to extend the smooth operation cycle of the industry as far as possible, and to ensure the stable operation of the industry.