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The Listing Price Is Close To 19800 Yuan / Ton &Nbsp, And Cotton Price Will Go Lower In The New Year.

2011/8/8 15:42:00 45

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Experienced 2010/2011 cotton prices fell sharply

Quotation

After that, the cotton market in 2011/2012 will be a very complicated year.

In 2010 cotton inventory consumption ratio fell to a historical low, when the economy was in a cost driven inflation cycle, cotton prices soared nearly 100%, and the national throw cotton store also failed to prevent cotton prices from rising above expectations.

After entering the 2011, the state launched to stabilize market prices.

Reserve plan

In March, the price of new flower temporary storage and storage was 19800 yuan / ton.

Monetary tightening policy has been repeatedly introduced, the supply and demand side of the fund is tight, the industry chain downstream production stop production, demand reduction, supply gap turned into excess inventory, cotton price nearly 40%, cotton enterprises sell no loss frequently.

At the same time, the high cotton price has increased the cotton planting area in the new year, and the new flower production has become inevitable.

In August, the national cotton market monitoring system estimated that the total output of cotton in the new year was 7 million 390 thousand and 200 tons, an increase of 18.61% over the previous year.

At present, it is in the critical period of the docking of new and old flowers. The author makes a comprehensive analysis of macro and micro factors to predict the new flower market.

Listing price is close to 19800 yuan / ton.

In August 4th, the NDRC parliament deployed the new year's cotton reserve and storage preparation. We expect the new flower listing price to be close to 19800 yuan / ton.

First, the date of the purchase and storage of new flowers has just come into the market, with a limited number.

According to historical calculation, the maximum capacity of national cotton reserves is 3 million 850 thousand tons, and the stock is currently 227 thousand tons, that is, the Treasury can accommodate at least 3 million 600 thousand tons, almost the annual output of 1/2.

Second, 19800 yuan / ton is the price most likely to reach agreement on the upper and lower reaches.

For upstream suppliers, this price can protect the interests of cotton farmers, and also enable middlemen to maintain basic operations.

In the context of purchasing and storage, the buyer's pricing power will be weakened, and procurement action tends to wait until the end of the purchase or storage or when the market price is unable to fall.

Third, the price of cotton quotations coming to Hong Kong in the new year is generally referred to this price and may be lowered, but it is subject to imports.

quota

The impact on the market is relatively limited.

Difficult to reproduce unilateral super conventional Quotes

Although the cotton price in the new year will be affected by the macro environment, weather and policy, the moderation of supply and demand will limit the fluctuation of price.

First, the high cotton price has led to an increase in cotton planting area worldwide. USDA forecasts that global output will increase by 7.5%, and the inventory consumption ratio will rise by 5.1%, and the supply and demand relationship will be improved significantly.

Second, cotton price.

Skyrocketing

The small and medium-sized enterprises that are vulnerable to the capital chain are forced to withdraw from the market. The cotton textile industry is facing a major structural adjustment. Industrial clustering will enhance the ability of the enterprises to cope with the fluctuation of cotton prices, and the market purchase and marketing channels will also be improved.

The annual fluctuation range is between 19000 yuan and 26000 yuan per ton.

Inflation continues, costs rise, and cotton prices are difficult to return to the historical low price range.

First, the risk factors that drag the global economic recovery are related to changes in the structure of financial systems and restrictions on new economic growth points. The restoration of the entire economic system will take a long time. In the process of resisting inflation pressure, emerging economies tend to be more sound policy oriented. Prices of commodities will not be ruled out, but they will still remain high.

Second, labor costs arising from the upgrading of labor force will become an important contributors to the cost increase in the coming year.

Third, from the cotton farmers' statistics, the cost of cotton planting in the new year has increased by 20%.

Sharp rise and fall

The regression analysis shows that the price fluctuation interval of the new year is 19000 - 26000 yuan / ton.

New flowers or going low

From the current market perspective, the downturn in demand is still the biggest worry. Purchasing and storing may support cotton prices for a short time. But in a market environment where consumption can not start much, the continuation of price declines will not be changed by policy intervention.

In the second half of this year, with the gradual restoration of the industrial chain, the consumption will slowly recover after the end of industrial inventory, and cotton prices will also rebound.

On the one hand, the level of capacity release in the textile industry is much higher in the two quarter, but industrial investment is still increasing.

According to statistics from the Ministry of industry and commerce, the total investment of China's textile enterprises over 5 million yuan or above was 295 billion 600 million yuan in the first half of 2011, an increase of 37.6% over the same period last year, of which the cotton textile industry invested 75 billion 400 million yuan, up 46.2% over the same period last year.

On the other hand, the improvement of people's income and the acceleration of urbanization will promote the continuous upgrading of domestic consumption.

In the first half of this year, the domestic sales of textile industry achieved stable and rapid growth. The value of domestic sales accounted for 87.7% of the total value of the textile industry, while the contribution rate of domestic sales was less than 60% at the end of 2010.