Inflation Also Futures &Nbsp; Down Also Futures.

　　 Spin The two important raw materials of the industry, cotton and PTA, successfully landed in the futures market in 2004 and 2006 respectively. The introduction of the two major futures varieties has greatly increased the market's attention and participation, and has shown a high degree of correlation between the two varieties and the two varieties and other related products. It has made cotton and PTA beyond the scope of textile raw materials, and has become an important futures market in the financial market.

Since last year, the international and domestic excess liquidity plus domestic real estate market. policy Restrictions led to a large number of hot money into the futures market speculation speculation, so that cotton prices hit a new high in the past few years, and suddenly pulled up its closely related PTA futures prices and chemical fiber prices. Later, with the further specification of the futures market and the new cotton year approaching, the speculative capital ignored the future market, and some of the idle capital left or wait-and-see, so that cotton and PTA futures prices fell sharply. Obviously, speculation and speculation in futures have seriously deviated the value of cotton and PTA market prices, and become one of the main reasons for the sharp fluctuations in market prices. Chemical fiber and textile enterprises suffer from it. Thus, the industry has a "rising futures, down also futures".

Futures affect spot prices

　　 futures To a large extent, it can improve the production and operation of enterprises. In response to the PTA futures price discovery and risk management functions, Sinopec official told reporters that since the listing of PTA futures, the pricing of the industry has had a greater impact, and the pricing of the entire market has become more orderly and transparent. At present, the domestic and overseas suppliers of the PTA industry are about 20, more than 100 customers and fifty or sixty large traders. In the past, market pricing has been in a disordered state for a long time. After the futures market, the trading pattern of the futures market is changing. In the past, the contract price model was often used, and its contradiction was the confirmation of price. After the listing of futures, this problem is solved. The settlement price of the whole month is the average price of the month, and then the price of the month will be determined according to the actual situation, so the contradiction of the industrial chain will be reduced. Another is the change of pricing power. Before the listing of PTA futures, although the domestic supply ratio accounted for 60%, there was no open price platform in the country, mainly because the foreign businessmen decided the value of the country, and many values were often confirmed through the price platform. Through the large futures platform, the domestic price influence has been gradually improved, and now the pricing of foreign countries is more and more referring to domestic pricing.

"Probably since the second half of 2007, the price discovery mechanism of PTA futures has been gradually established." One of the largest PTA producers in China, the manager of Xiang Lu Formosa Petrochemical Co business department, said that both spot price and contract price are now affected by futures, and the situation of spot following futures is very obvious.

Similarly, cotton Futures are also attracting much attention. Since cotton futures are listed, buyers and sellers both have a large amount of information about the relationship between supply and demand of cotton and their changing trend. Based on their judgement of the future cotton market, they have formed fierce competition to form the futures price of cotton. The futures price thus formed can reflect the situation of supply and demand and the trend of price changes more truly. This price will be transmitted to the relevant government departments as a signal for future cotton supply and demand. When formulating cotton production, operation and price policy, or considering the import and export of cotton, the departments concerned can make full use of the function of information concentration and price discovery in futures market, and form a scientific and advanced decision on the basis of more comprehensive information.

At the same time, this price signal will also be transmitted to farmers in time, guiding farmers to adjust the cotton planting area, reduce the blindness of production, and avoid the huge fluctuation of prices due to high and low output. Futures prices will also serve as a strong signal to guide cotton growers to optimize their planting structure, eliminate cotton varieties that are not competitive, turn to high quality cotton with low input and output and pursue "high quality and high price". The guidance of futures market enables farmers to know which varieties and how many areas to sell, and to produce good quality cotton according to market needs.

Futures can hedge.

Shaoxing Textile City The raw material market is the largest specialized market for textile raw materials trading in Asia, and the largest distributing center for light textile materials in Asia. According to market operators, futures prices can affect cotton and polyester traders' judgment of the fundamentals of the market, thereby affecting their willingness to purchase and sell cotton products and polyester products. In the first half of November 2010, the price of polyester chips, polyester filament and staple fiber was already high on the downstream textile enterprises. Polyester traders did not dare to buy goods at high prices. However, the rising price of futures has driven the price of polyester products to rise. Traders have changed their judgement on the fundamentals. On the one hand, they buy raw materials at high prices, and at the same time raise the selling price of their products.

Objectively speaking, the hedging function of the futures market has positive and positive significance for the production enterprises. Someone likened the futures market to someone else's warehouse. "In fact, we regard futures as a warehouse, where I can build warehouses, use stocks, or adjust production and marketing. The futures market can play a healthy role. " The person in charge of the enterprise said.

"Big losses, small losses, small profits change." The risk avoiding function of PTA futures market has also benefited many chemical fiber enterprises. According to the introduction, many chemical fiber enterprises in Zhejiang are operating in batches of raw materials. At the same time, in order to stabilize customer relationship and maintain market share, products must be sold steadily every day at market prices. As a result, raw material costs account for 70% of the PTA price of products.

The participation of enterprises in the futures market can be verified by changes in warehouse receipts. In the market situation is bad, chemical fiber enterprises are selling value in futures market to avoid the risk of falling prices, PTA warehouse receipts are increasing. When the market is better, the opposite is true. The warehouse receipt trend of PTA reflects the function of the futures market as a "reservoir" in the spot market, and the futures market plays a role in stabilizing the price fluctuation in the spot market and promoting the healthy development of the industry. However, PTA futures can help enterprises avoid risks, but it is only a tool after all, and its effect depends on the ability of business decision making.

At the same time, the ups and downs of cotton spot prices and the sharp fluctuation of textile prices have brought great risks to textile enterprises in recent years. After the listing of cotton futures, textile enterprises can pre sell and sell through futures market, lock in production and operation costs, avoid risks and achieve hedging. Textile enterprises generally store cotton for 2~3 months, and sometimes the funds are tight enough to store cotton for less than a month. The export of textile products or domestic sales contracts have been signed for half a year, and the change of cotton prices in these months will have a certain impact on the textile enterprises. At this point, textile enterprises can make use of the price discovery function of futures market, buy or sell futures contracts of one or several months, hedge, lock in the operating costs and profits of enterprises, and minimize the business risks of enterprises.

Textile enterprises can obtain a stable and reliable purchase channel by using futures market. Because the cotton entering the futures delivery warehouse must be carried out by the professional fiber inspection institution for fair inspection, and in line with the cotton delivery standard. Such cotton has an absolute guarantee in quality. The cotton obtained by physical delivery in the futures market is suitable for their own production needs, which is also conducive to arranging production for enterprises so that enterprises can maintain the stability of production and the continuity of operation.

　　 Speculation Have a negative impact

At present, futures prices have a significant impact on spot prices, but many textile enterprises are not yet able to adapt to the new changes in the market. On the one hand, PTA is basically a monthly price before there is no futures, and the reaction of spot prices has a process. Generally, the changes are slow. After the PTA futures are listed, the market changes can be observed every day through the futures disk, and the market reaction is more sensitive. On the other hand, enterprises generally have a habit of judging the market according to the situation of the upstream and downstream of the industry, and pay less attention to the macroeconomic factors that affect the economic operation. Sometimes, when the impact of the crisis and the macro-control of the state are special, enterprises sometimes fail to see the change of the futures price.

Cotton and PTA futures are listed so far, downstream textile enterprises are still insufficient to participate. Generally speaking, traders and upstream enterprises can make better use of the PTA futures market, and the participation of downstream enterprises is relatively small. The structure of industry participation in the market needs further optimization. In this regard, the relevant people believe that under the influence of negative information, many enterprises have not really understood the futures market. In addition, there are still some decision-makers in enterprises. The use of financial instruments needs a long time to guide correctly.

Since the beginning of last year, the price of cotton and chemical fiber has experienced a sharp fluctuation of roller coaster. Among them, speculation and speculation in futures market have become an important promoter, and those who just have a preliminary understanding of futures have lost interest in futures.

The actual results of the operation of cotton futures and PTA futures have not been satisfactory. Reporters learned in the interview that the vast majority of funds currently involved in cotton and PTA futures market participation in the transaction are idle funds outside the industry. The purpose of these funds to enter the market is to engage in speculation and speculation. Under the speculation of idle capital, the price fluctuation of futures market has occurred. This kind of fluctuation directly or indirectly affects the price trend of the spot market, causing panic psychology. In view of this, the futures market has a serious negative impact on the downstream textile enterprises' production and operation.

Regarding the problems existing in the futures market, the industry believes that on the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of market access, restrict the influx of speculative funds outside the chemical fiber industry and prevent excess liquidity; on the other hand, we must control the scale of the futures market. At present, the PTA futures market has a monthly turnover of about 6000000 tons, while the annual output of PTA in the whole country is only 16 million tons ~1700 million tons. We can see that the volume of trading in the futures market is quite a part of speculation. The supply and demand situation reflected by the futures market is also seriously inconsistent with the actual situation, so it is necessary to control the scale of the futures market transaction. At the same time, we need to strengthen the knowledge popularization of futures market in chemical fiber enterprises, enable enterprises to understand the market, operate rationally, and strengthen the supervision of information issuing institutions. We need to set up an independent third party authoritative information release platform to release relevant information of futures market transactions timely and accurately.

Indeed, whether cotton or PTA, the capabilities of futures service enterprises need to be further enhanced, so that the function of futures market can be further reflected. However, restricted by the characteristics of the industry, we understand the lack of futures and have an in-depth understanding of the spot, and understand the lack of futures and in-depth understanding of futures. In this sense, the ability of the futures market to serve the enterprises needs to be improved, and the comprehensive ability of the enterprises to use futures needs to be improved. There is still much room for development in the scale and system construction of the enterprises involved in futures trading. Textile enterprises look forward to a mature and standardized futures market, and truly play the functions of discovering prices, hedging and avoiding risks, so as to play a positive role in the smooth development of raw materials market in the textile industry.