China'S Exports Will Face More Severe Challenges In The Second Half Of This Year.

On August 11th, the S & P lowered the US credit rating incident and shocked global finance. market At the same time, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that China's export volume reached a record $175 billion 130 million in July, and its export growth rate rose to 20.4% after four consecutive months of decline.

The news is that shoes and clothing, which are in a pessimistic mood, are foreign trade. industry With a hint of warmth. However, relevant personages have analyzed that the pressure on foreign trade enterprises such as shoes and clothing has not been fundamentally alleviated since this year, and a series of chain reactions brought by the "rating" incident in the US have predicted that China's foreign trade exports will face more severe challenges in the second half of this year.

Affected by the slowdown in the world economic recovery, the deterioration of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the United States, the weakening of the replenishment effect and the sharp fluctuation of commodity prices, China's export growth slowed down in April from 3 to June this year.

According to Yang Biao, former outgoing director of the Fujian provincial foreign trade and Economic Cooperation Department, the export growth of the traditional developed market purchasers at the Canton Fair, Europe, Japan and other developed countries this year is limited, and the number of buyers in the third phase is down. In particular, the recent decline in the prices of raw materials, such as textile, clothing, shoes, bags and other labor-intensive light industrial products, has become weaker.

"In the past two months, the performance of foreign trade enterprises is expected to be more pessimistic in the third quarter, and the export growth in July may only be short-term fine-tuning." Chen Cangsong, Secretary General of Fujian textile and garment export base, said.

According to Chen Cangsong, influenced by various cost increases, most enterprises in Fujian province in the first half of the year of textile and garment export are only about 50%. After April, the situation of orders for shoes and clothing and other enterprises took a swiftly downward trend. Most enterprises had fewer orders in 8 and September.

In Zhejiang, a big foreign trade province, many shoes Private enterprises such as clothing are not optimistic about the situation in the second half of this year. In the 2600 private enterprises monitored by the Zhejiang Provincial Bureau of industry and commerce, 70% of the enterprises indicated that the prices of raw materials increased significantly compared with the same period last year. 60% of the enterprises expected that this value will continue to rise, and 98% of the enterprises expect the labor cost to be flat or even rising in the next quarter.

"From the many unfavorable factors that restrict the development of the export industry, the problem of financing difficulties, recruitment difficulties, difficulties in receiving orders and high costs has not yet been fundamentally solved," Li Wenpu, vice president of the school of economics, Xiamen University, believes that if the "rating" incident continues to ferment in the real economy, it will cause further consumption demand in developed countries such as the United States.

"Shrinking international demand is only one disadvantage. On the other hand, the downgrading of the US credit rating will surely lead to a weakening trend of the US dollar, which will aggravate the pressure of RMB appreciation. " Li Wenpu said.

According to data from China foreign exchange trading center, the RMB exchange rate between the US dollar and the US dollar rose 6.42 in August 10th, the highest since 6.4167.

In the first half of this year, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated by 2.3%. Because the profit margins of traditional industries are small, SMEs are difficult to digest exchange rate costs. "Many enterprises are faced with uncontrollable risks such as exchange rate, so they prefer to shut down their businesses and avoid losing more orders." Lin Shenghe, President of Shishi casual wear Association, said.

What worries China's foreign trade enterprises is that if the western economies are hit by the "rating" incident, it will cause countries to pay more attention to easing domestic pressure through exports, and the tendency of economic and trade policy will become more obvious.

Take Fujian as an example, in the first half of this year, Fujian enterprises encountered 14 cases of "two counter two guarantees" (anti-dumping, countervailing, safeguard measures, special safeguard measures), involving 80 million 120 thousand dollars. Compared with the same period last year, the number of cases dropped by 50%, but the amount involved was greatly increased 1.32 times. {page_break}

Yang Biao believes that in order to protect its own economy, protectionism in the international trade environment will rise in the coming period, so the frequency of Chinese enterprises encountering trade friction will be very high in the coming period.

Ding Zhijie, Dean of the school of finance at the University of foreign trade and economics, said that the sovereign credit rating of the United States has been reduced, which will, to a certain extent, cause a slowdown in the developed countries, leading to a contraction in external demand. It is expected that China's export growth will decline to a certain extent in the second half of this year.

"The next stage of China's tight foreign trade environment is a foregone conclusion, but the impact of the US rating is enormous and the extent of its impact remains to be seen." Li Wenpu said.

Ding Zhijie pointed out that the Fed announced on the 9 day that loose monetary policy should be maintained until at least the middle of 2013, which will enhance and restore market confidence to a certain extent. "Overall, according to the current domestic and international situation, China's foreign trade growth rate is expected to fall back to 15-20% throughout the year."

In the face of the continued tightening external environment, how can the foreign trade industry get through the difficulties? The relevant industry appeals to insist that governments at all levels should strengthen various measures to stabilize external demand while adhering to the "general direction of structural adjustment and transformation", and carry out the policy orientation of "maintaining pressure" for foreign trade enterprises.

For example, enterprises with technology, brand and market advantages should continue to fine policy support in the aspects of financing channels, financing costs, employment environment, technological innovation, export credit guarantee and so on. At the same time, we should actively guide foreign trade enterprises to develop new markets such as Africa and South America through fiscal and tax policies.